Sep 27, 2026 06:31 PM
https://www.supercluster.com/editorial/w...o-starlink
EXCERPTS: Technical problems have plagued Russia’s fledgling Starlink-like satellite megaconstellation RASSVET since its first launches. But analysts say that despite the apparent teething problems, RASSVET is set to give Russia a distinct advantage and self-sufficiency in the war against Ukraine, and possibly against Europe in the future.
A batch of RASSVET satellites launched in March this year failed to reach their operational altitude of 500 miles (800 kilometers) and is reportedly lingering in a much lower orbit of around 310 miles (500 km) above the planet. On top of that, two satellites appear to be spiraling back toward Earth, and one has already deorbited.
The glitches, however, don’t mean Russia’s effort to deploy its own low-Earth-orbit, high-bandwidth, military megaconstellation is failing. Earlier reports suggest that Russia can already rely on RASSVET — Russian for Daybreak — to beam connectivity to Ukrainian territory for several hours a day, and, although no firm proof has been found yet, some think they may even have conducted drone strikes using the system.
“The recent targeted attacks on the Ukrainian Security Services (SBU) building in Kyiv and a train engine near the Polish border crossing have followed patterns that sound like they could not be supported by a continuous connection to a mesh network,” Marc C Lange, a Berlin-based defense advisor and author of the Tech Wars newsletter, told Supercluster. “And if it was piloted by first-person vision, then there’s only one option left.”
[...] “Even if Russia gets about 200 satellites into space by the end of 2027, that will already be enough to provide military coverage over Ukraine,” he says. “If they grow it to 400 and not 600, by the end of 2028, that will give them significant coverage over the areas they are interested in, which is mostly the former Soviet-controlled space [in Eastern Europe] where the potential clash with NATO is going to take place.”
Lange agrees that despite the reported technical setbacks, Russia’s ability to deploy RASSVET shouldn’t be underestimated.
“We should not allow ourselves the arrogance to think that Russia cannot build this,” he told Supercluster. “I was among the people who doubted that Russia would be able to sustain progress in production, launch, and going operational due to its expenses in the war in Ukraine. But my impression and the impression of many people I speak with is that Russia has fully understood the necessity and the existential role of RASSVET.”
Bendett warns that not even the sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 and strengthened in 2022 appear to be slowing progress. The sanctions prevent Russia from purchasing high-end technologies, including electronics and software that might be used in the production of weapons. But Russia has found a way to bypass the sanctions by purchasing the technology it needs via its allied countries... (MORE - missing details)
EXCERPTS: Technical problems have plagued Russia’s fledgling Starlink-like satellite megaconstellation RASSVET since its first launches. But analysts say that despite the apparent teething problems, RASSVET is set to give Russia a distinct advantage and self-sufficiency in the war against Ukraine, and possibly against Europe in the future.
A batch of RASSVET satellites launched in March this year failed to reach their operational altitude of 500 miles (800 kilometers) and is reportedly lingering in a much lower orbit of around 310 miles (500 km) above the planet. On top of that, two satellites appear to be spiraling back toward Earth, and one has already deorbited.
The glitches, however, don’t mean Russia’s effort to deploy its own low-Earth-orbit, high-bandwidth, military megaconstellation is failing. Earlier reports suggest that Russia can already rely on RASSVET — Russian for Daybreak — to beam connectivity to Ukrainian territory for several hours a day, and, although no firm proof has been found yet, some think they may even have conducted drone strikes using the system.
“The recent targeted attacks on the Ukrainian Security Services (SBU) building in Kyiv and a train engine near the Polish border crossing have followed patterns that sound like they could not be supported by a continuous connection to a mesh network,” Marc C Lange, a Berlin-based defense advisor and author of the Tech Wars newsletter, told Supercluster. “And if it was piloted by first-person vision, then there’s only one option left.”
[...] “Even if Russia gets about 200 satellites into space by the end of 2027, that will already be enough to provide military coverage over Ukraine,” he says. “If they grow it to 400 and not 600, by the end of 2028, that will give them significant coverage over the areas they are interested in, which is mostly the former Soviet-controlled space [in Eastern Europe] where the potential clash with NATO is going to take place.”
Lange agrees that despite the reported technical setbacks, Russia’s ability to deploy RASSVET shouldn’t be underestimated.
“We should not allow ourselves the arrogance to think that Russia cannot build this,” he told Supercluster. “I was among the people who doubted that Russia would be able to sustain progress in production, launch, and going operational due to its expenses in the war in Ukraine. But my impression and the impression of many people I speak with is that Russia has fully understood the necessity and the existential role of RASSVET.”
Bendett warns that not even the sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014 and strengthened in 2022 appear to be slowing progress. The sanctions prevent Russia from purchasing high-end technologies, including electronics and software that might be used in the production of weapons. But Russia has found a way to bypass the sanctions by purchasing the technology it needs via its allied countries... (MORE - missing details)
