Jun 13, 2026 01:39 AM
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1131946
INTRO: The cause of future food shortages may not be a lack of farmland, but a shortage of agricultural workforce." Amid the reality of low birth rates and rural extinction, a joint international research team from KAIST has developed a new data-driven model that reflects the decline in the agricultural workforce into the analysis of future food security (the ability to stably produce and supply food required by the public). The research findings show that in the future, a shortage of agricultural workforce could act as a key constraint on farmland utilization in most regions of the world.
[...] Until now, food security and climate change research have mainly focused on "how much farmland can be secured." The approach was to predict the future by calculating whether the climate and soil are suitable for farming and how much food demand will increase in the future.
However, the research team asked a different question: "What if there is farmland, but no one to farm it?" In fact, as low birth rates and urban concentration manifest in many countries, the rural population is declining. As economies develop, there is also a stronger tendency for people to move from agriculture to the manufacturing or service sectors. The research team determined that these changes could have a significant impact on future food production.
The research team performed the analysis using five future scenarios that combine SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) and RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), which are representative international scenario frameworks that predict how future society and climate change will unfold. SSP is a scenario that assumes the direction of societal changes such as population growth, economic growth, and technological development, while RCP is a scenario that shows how the future climate will change depending on greenhouse gas emissions.
The research team newly reflected the agricultural workforce variable into these future outlooks. While previous predictions were mainly based on the land available for farming and food demand, this study simultaneously considered the actual number of people who will farm. In other words, the reality that food production can be limited if the agricultural workforce is insufficient, even if farmland and climate conditions are adequate, was reflected in the model.
The results of the analysis were even clearer than expected. In the future, it was shown that the farmland area that can actually be utilized will decrease due to the shortage of agricultural workforce in most regions of the world. In some regions, the lack of agricultural workforce was analyzed to act as a greater limiting factor than climate or soil... (MORE - no ads)
INTRO: The cause of future food shortages may not be a lack of farmland, but a shortage of agricultural workforce." Amid the reality of low birth rates and rural extinction, a joint international research team from KAIST has developed a new data-driven model that reflects the decline in the agricultural workforce into the analysis of future food security (the ability to stably produce and supply food required by the public). The research findings show that in the future, a shortage of agricultural workforce could act as a key constraint on farmland utilization in most regions of the world.
[...] Until now, food security and climate change research have mainly focused on "how much farmland can be secured." The approach was to predict the future by calculating whether the climate and soil are suitable for farming and how much food demand will increase in the future.
However, the research team asked a different question: "What if there is farmland, but no one to farm it?" In fact, as low birth rates and urban concentration manifest in many countries, the rural population is declining. As economies develop, there is also a stronger tendency for people to move from agriculture to the manufacturing or service sectors. The research team determined that these changes could have a significant impact on future food production.
The research team performed the analysis using five future scenarios that combine SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) and RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), which are representative international scenario frameworks that predict how future society and climate change will unfold. SSP is a scenario that assumes the direction of societal changes such as population growth, economic growth, and technological development, while RCP is a scenario that shows how the future climate will change depending on greenhouse gas emissions.
The research team newly reflected the agricultural workforce variable into these future outlooks. While previous predictions were mainly based on the land available for farming and food demand, this study simultaneously considered the actual number of people who will farm. In other words, the reality that food production can be limited if the agricultural workforce is insufficient, even if farmland and climate conditions are adequate, was reflected in the model.
The results of the analysis were even clearer than expected. In the future, it was shown that the farmland area that can actually be utilized will decrease due to the shortage of agricultural workforce in most regions of the world. In some regions, the lack of agricultural workforce was analyzed to act as a greater limiting factor than climate or soil... (MORE - no ads)
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