Mar 31, 2026 08:50 PM
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1122123
INTRO: There is a closing 20-year window in which decisions on climate and land use will determine the fate of dozens of native birds, butterflies and plants across Great Britain, which is already one of the most nature-depleted countries globally.
That is the warning in a new study led by the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), which, for the first time, predicts how different combined environmental changes would affect the survival of species within 1km square areas across the country.
The scientists say 2050 is a 'point of no return' where decisions on climate and land use made up to then will determine the trajectories of species trends in future decades – impacting other wildlife as well as nature’s contributions to people such as pollination and soil health.
These better-case scenarios would involve: strong action on emissions; sustainable land management, including reduced meat and dairy consumption; and an overall societal shift towards valuing the environment.
The worst-case scenario would involve increased fossil fuel burning, putting us on course for 4 degrees of warming, in addition to environmentally damaging agricultural and urban intensification. The experts predict this would mean:
INTRO: There is a closing 20-year window in which decisions on climate and land use will determine the fate of dozens of native birds, butterflies and plants across Great Britain, which is already one of the most nature-depleted countries globally.
That is the warning in a new study led by the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), which, for the first time, predicts how different combined environmental changes would affect the survival of species within 1km square areas across the country.
The scientists say 2050 is a 'point of no return' where decisions on climate and land use made up to then will determine the trajectories of species trends in future decades – impacting other wildlife as well as nature’s contributions to people such as pollination and soil health.
These better-case scenarios would involve: strong action on emissions; sustainable land management, including reduced meat and dairy consumption; and an overall societal shift towards valuing the environment.
The worst-case scenario would involve increased fossil fuel burning, putting us on course for 4 degrees of warming, in addition to environmentally damaging agricultural and urban intensification. The experts predict this would mean:
- More than 200 species from three key groups – 196 plants (20% of existing British species), 31 birds (14%) and seven butterflies (12%) – would eventually become extinct in Britain; it would be a question of not if but when. These losses would be more than three times the historic extinction rate.
- Many areas of the country would lose up to 20% of their existing local species.
- 89% of habitats in Britain would look very different, with a much-changed make-up of plant species. There would be winners and losers, with some warm-loving species thriving and dominating habitats but many sensitive species declining.