Yesterday 07:23 PM
(This post was last modified: Yesterday 07:23 PM by C C.)
https://theness.com/neurologicablog/what...-3i-atlas/
EXCERPTS: Last year the inner solar system had an interstellar visitor – 3I/Atlas (which stands for the third interstellar object which was discovered by the Atlas telescope). [...] Now that it is passing out of the solar system we can look at all the data that NASA collected and make some fairly confident conclusions. There are a lot of sources of information, but Wikipedia actually has a pretty good summary and list of references. In the end, 3I/Atlas behaved mostly like a typical comet.
[...] At the other end of the spectrum, in my opinion, is Avi Loeb. He has seemed to make a career now out of mystery mongering anything unusual as a possible alien artifact. He claimed that all three interstellar objects might be alien craft. Why is he at the crank end of the spectrum? Because he elevated this possibility prematurely and with a series of really bad arguments, sometimes distorting the data or making bad calculations.
He said that Oumuamua might be alien because it was coming close to the Earth, to observe it. He then argued that 3I/Atlas might be alien because it was not coming close to the Earth, to hide from us. He exaggerated its possible size, its apparent lack of a tail, its composition. He made a lot of the fact that the comet’s trajectory is close to the ecliptic, about 5 degrees off, committing a classic lottery fallacy argument. He calculated how likely this specific feature is, but only after knowing it, and did not adjust for all possible features that might be individually unlikely.
He engaged in classic post-hoc reasoning. In the end, the predictions of NASA scientists all proved correct – 3I/Atlas is a comet, and displays all the features of a comet. Loeb attracted attention by saying 3I/Atlas might pivot toward the Earth once it emerges from behind the sun. When this prediction failed he did admit it was “most likely natural”, but is still emphasizing its apparent anomalies.
What he is doing is playing coy, which is a common strategy for those who are pushing fringe ideas but who are trying to seem reasonable. All along he said – the most likely explanation is that it is natural. But then follows up with – here are lots of (really bad) reasons why it is unusual and might be alien.
This is a win-win for him – in the rare case that he turns out to be right, he is a genius and takes all the credit (keep in mind, if it were alien NASA would have found out all by themselves, with his prodding). If it turns out he is wrong, then he can claim he said all along it was likely to be natural. Either way he sucks up as much oxygen as possible from the media and distracts from the hard-working scientists at NASA doing good work.
There is some great and interesting science here. The conclusion that this is almost certainly not an alien craft is a footnote at best, because there was never any good reason to hypothesize that it was... (MORE - missing details)
EXCERPTS: Last year the inner solar system had an interstellar visitor – 3I/Atlas (which stands for the third interstellar object which was discovered by the Atlas telescope). [...] Now that it is passing out of the solar system we can look at all the data that NASA collected and make some fairly confident conclusions. There are a lot of sources of information, but Wikipedia actually has a pretty good summary and list of references. In the end, 3I/Atlas behaved mostly like a typical comet.
[...] At the other end of the spectrum, in my opinion, is Avi Loeb. He has seemed to make a career now out of mystery mongering anything unusual as a possible alien artifact. He claimed that all three interstellar objects might be alien craft. Why is he at the crank end of the spectrum? Because he elevated this possibility prematurely and with a series of really bad arguments, sometimes distorting the data or making bad calculations.
He said that Oumuamua might be alien because it was coming close to the Earth, to observe it. He then argued that 3I/Atlas might be alien because it was not coming close to the Earth, to hide from us. He exaggerated its possible size, its apparent lack of a tail, its composition. He made a lot of the fact that the comet’s trajectory is close to the ecliptic, about 5 degrees off, committing a classic lottery fallacy argument. He calculated how likely this specific feature is, but only after knowing it, and did not adjust for all possible features that might be individually unlikely.
He engaged in classic post-hoc reasoning. In the end, the predictions of NASA scientists all proved correct – 3I/Atlas is a comet, and displays all the features of a comet. Loeb attracted attention by saying 3I/Atlas might pivot toward the Earth once it emerges from behind the sun. When this prediction failed he did admit it was “most likely natural”, but is still emphasizing its apparent anomalies.
What he is doing is playing coy, which is a common strategy for those who are pushing fringe ideas but who are trying to seem reasonable. All along he said – the most likely explanation is that it is natural. But then follows up with – here are lots of (really bad) reasons why it is unusual and might be alien.
This is a win-win for him – in the rare case that he turns out to be right, he is a genius and takes all the credit (keep in mind, if it were alien NASA would have found out all by themselves, with his prodding). If it turns out he is wrong, then he can claim he said all along it was likely to be natural. Either way he sucks up as much oxygen as possible from the media and distracts from the hard-working scientists at NASA doing good work.
There is some great and interesting science here. The conclusion that this is almost certainly not an alien craft is a footnote at best, because there was never any good reason to hypothesize that it was... (MORE - missing details)