Airliner Crash in Kazakhstan

[Yazata]

Really dramatic cell phone video appearing to show what pilots call a phugoid oscillation before the crash. This can happen when an aircraft has lost all wing and tail control surfaces, such as in a total hydraulic failure. Pilots are left trying desperately trying to control the plane by throttling the engines up and down. It's almost impossible to land a plane that way.

The plane was a Brazilian made Embraer 190. It had 67 people aboard, of whom 38 died (a preliminary count which might change.) It started banking to the right as it came in, the right wing struck the ground, the plane cartwheeled and broke in half right behind the wings. The front half broke up and was engulfed in flames, while the rear half ended up upside down. All of the survivors seem to have been in the rear half.

The flight originated in Baku Azerbijan and was supposed to be headed to Grozny in Russia's Chechnya. Unknown why it was so far off course over the coast of Kazakhstan, though that might be consistent with a total loss of control.

https://x.com/AleaJactaEs666/status/1871824922118668340

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azerbaijan...light_8243

Video from inside, before and after crash, recorded by a guy sitting in the back

https://x.com/abood409/status/1871917485458706503

nsNS

[Yazata]

Everyone seems to agree that a hydraulic failure led to total loss of wing and tail control surfaces, rendering the plane almost uncontrollable, except by throttling the engines. Only one plane with that kind of failure has ever successfully landed (a FedEx air cargo plane). Several have crash landed with survivors (this is one). Sadly, both pilots (both Russians) who fought valiantly to fly the plane without controls died in the crash. They are heroes.

The big question is what caused the hydraulic failure. The initial story was bird-strike. But multiple lines of evidence contradict that. When the plane approached Grozny in Chechnya, it was waved off because the airport was under attack by Ukrainian drones. Then survivors report hearing a loud bang. And photos and video of the tail section of the crashed plane show it was riddled by many small projectiles inconsistent with birds.

So consensus is trending to the theory that the plane was fatally crippled by a surface to air missile with a fragmentation warhead, presumably fired by somebody in the mistaken belief that the airliner was a Ukrainian drone.

Video of some of the punctures

https://x.com/RawsGlobal/status/1871964332948586570

The rear half of the plane where all the survivors were.

[Image: Gfoj3ySWIAAjaGV?format=jpg&name=medium]

[Image: XXbUIuhW?format=jpg&name=small]

nsNS

[stryder]

Everyone seems to agree that a hydraulic failure led to total loss of wing and tail control surfaces, rendering the plane almost uncontrollable, except by throttling the engines. Only one plane with that kind of failure has ever successfully landed (a FedEx air cargo plane). Several have crash landed with survivors (this is one). Sadly, both pilots (both Russians) who fought valiantly to fly the plane without controls died in the crash. They are heroes.

The big question is what caused the hydraulic failure. The initial story was bird-strike. But multiple lines of evidence contradict that. When the plane approached Grozny in Chechnya, it was waved off because the airport was under attack by Ukrainian drones. Then survivors report hearing a loud bang. And photos and video of the tail section of the  crashed plane show it was riddled by many small projectiles inconsistent with birds.

So consensus is trending to the theory that the plane was fatally crippled by a surface to air missile with a fragmentation warhead, presumably fired by somebody in the mistaken belief that the airliner was a Ukrainian drone.

Video of some of the punctures

https://x.com/RawsGlobal/status/1871964332948586570

The rear half of the plane where all the survivors were.

[Image: Gfoj3ySWIAAjaGV?format=jpg&name=medium]

[Image: XXbUIuhW?format=jpg&name=small]

nsNS

I wouldn't of thought that would of been down to Ukraine, it's too far out from them to really be a drone attack. They would of also likely stated if they'd been involved, hitting a civilian airline isn't really their style.

[Syne]

The plane wasn't hit over Grozny. That's just how far they managed to get it before going down. It diverted from an area where Russia had been shooting down Ukrainian drones.

[Yazata]

President Putin has formally apologized to Azerbijan for the accidental shootdown of the Azerbijani airliner over Grozny, where trigger-happy missilemen mistook it for a Ukrainian drone. They probably only had a radar contact to go off of. Russian military aircraft presumably carry IFF transponders so they show up on air defense radar as friendlies, but a foreign civilian airliner wouldn't. The fatally damaged airliner managed to cross the Caspian sea to Kazakhstan, where it crashed trying to land.