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Does luck exist?

#1
C C Offline
http://unveilingthereality.com/2015/10/3...k-exist-i/

EXCERPT: Luck is a concept that probably exists in all the languages, a concept with elusive definition which we refer to in multiple situations. However, most of the times we do not have a clear idea of either we aim to refer to a sort of external intelligence loading the dice, or to a random event playing for or against us by chance. So, the question to be formulated will be, is luck (in the sense of “something” sorting out events in a positive or negative way) an invention of the human mind, insisting on finding an intelligent purpose behind the chains of events, or it is something else deserving an objective analysis?.

There are two irreconcilable stands on this matter, on the one hand those people thinking that luck has not any scientific evidence, and on the other hand those ignoring any scientific approach and believing that luck is a kind of intelligence, guiding the events in the interest of a specific eventual result. I wonder if there is room for analysis turning our backs on all the existing prejudices on this matter.

In this post I take the challenge to address the concept of luck. To that end I will be proposing firstly a definition, followed by introducing the orthodox science’s stand on the matter. Next I will explain why the abuse of the probabilistic approach is incorrect and finally, I will tell a couple of real stories challenging our common sense.

I will leave for a second post on the matter the introduction of some processes capable of creating real patterns in Nature on the one hand, and other mechanisms tricking us and making us recognise non-existent patterns on the other hand. To conclude I will dare to outline a couple of models aimed at explaining series of correlated events in life (luck)....
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#2
Magical Realist Offline
I've seen events in my own life that happen in an intelligent way. Events that aren't even really that significant and so preclude the idea of divine providence by their very nature. The parallelism of one's needs with what happens in one's life feels like it is part of the structure of reality. There IS meaning in life above random accidents. Things happen that make other things possible, all mixed up together inside this grand experiment of a mind both constructed out of and constructing its own narrative. I am reminded by such synchronicities that THE world is still largely MY world, and so one that meshes with my internal being in its own unique and surprising ways. At the same time I know we greatly underestimate the amount of events that are possible that can be considered "lucky" for us. We are much more disposed towards thinking we are favored than that we are jinxed. So while it would take an extraordinary series of catastrophes for us to question our luckiness, only the slightest fluke of good fortune, like the perfect parking place, is enough to assure us we are still "meant" to prosper and be happy.
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#3
C C Offline
(Nov 19, 2015 06:16 AM)Magical Realist Wrote: 've seen events in my own life that happen in an intelligent way. Events that aren't even really that significant and so preclude the idea of divine providence by their very nature. The parallelism of one's needs with what happens in one's life feels like it is part of the structure of reality.

What is made possible by statistical likelihood isn't always even brief and isolated events; sometimes it can be a long sequence of organization that inspires classification of being guided by principles(*). The very existence and whole history of complex life on Earth is riding on a probability made possible by the universe's countless dead worlds. Shakespeare is still Shakespeare, the same caliber of literature is there even if 50 immortal monkeys typed out the sequence of Hamlet after 10^100 failed attempts. [(*)Principles: Their substantiation not necessarily requiring correlation to either concrete entities or a hidden intelligence. In fact, sapience is just a special cooperation and coordination of rules, prior in ranking to a rational agent itself.]

Quote:There IS meaning in life above random accidents.

That's an interesting way to put it. Since we have this "phenomenal significance" that emerges over integrations of the brain's electrochemical activity, one wonders what else might be supervening upon the furniture of physics that the latter either couldn't systemically accommodate or could only be appended as a brute add-on. Those potential, other "non-establishment" slash "non-quantitative" interpretations just wouldn't be as unavoidable as what experiential consciousness is. So that the physical conventions of be-ing as particulate matter would be saved a similar embarrassment of having to either acknowledge them or (in their case) entertain their feasibility.
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#4
Magical Realist Offline
We can think of meaning as the top surface level of the underlying chaotic/random activity. Take dreaming for example. The random firings of the brain get filtered up thru our meaning hardware to wind up as the emotionally involving drama of the dream itself. I feel like those meaning filters are active even when we are awake, sorting out the huge mess of random sensory noise bombarding us all the time and imposing on it meaningful order. In this case however the patterns we construct out of all this stimuli can be immediately updated and looped back on the substrate, the world thus becoming weighted and evaluated in terms of our own egocentric needs/purposes at that time. We are geared towards perceiving what is important to us and to what relates to our unconscious drives and beliefs and assumptions.
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#5
Yazata Offline
Imagine that a particular lottery ticket has one chance in a million of winning the lottery.

Luck is what would make me be the one with the winning ticket.

No violation of probability is implied. Somebody had to win. It's of no consequence to the objective principles of mathematics who that winner is. But it would make a great deal of subjective difference to me.
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#6
Magical Realist Offline
"Portsmouth, Va. – Calvin and Zatera Spencer are having an amazing month. First they won $1 million in the March 12 Powerball drawing. Then on March 26, Mr. Spencer won $50,000 with 10 winning tickets in the Virginia Lottery’s Pick 4 game.

But it doesn’t stop there.

The next day, shortly after dropping his wife off for an appointment, Mr. Spencer bought a Virginia Lottery Scratcher ticket – the $100 Million Cash Extravaganza – and won the $1 million prize.

“Baby, we did it again!” he told her.

The $1 million prize in $100 Million Cash Extravaganza is an annuity, which means the Spencers had the choice of taking the full $1 million prize over 30 years or a one-time cash option of $681,000 before taxes. They chose the cash option. He bought the winning ticket at the 7-Eleven at 100 West 21st Street in Norfolk. The store received a $10,000 bonus from the Lottery for selling the winning ticket."===http://wtkr.com/2014/03/28/portsmouth-co...one-month/
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#7
elte Offline
Will his luck hold? Now he will need more luck dealing with the money.
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