May 28, 2024 10:09 PM
(This post was last modified: May 29, 2024 03:50 PM by C C.)
https://youtu.be/NZ-ESgZEgtE
VIDEO EXCERPTS: You all know it as globalization. It has always been a security ploy by the United States to fight an enemy. But the Cold War turned into the end of the Cold War, and in 1992 the strategic justification for this system went away.
The Americans had never invested their economy in it, because it was a strategic ploy. So we started down a spiral of ever more internally focused, narcissistic, populist political contests that brought in a series of leaders that bit-by-bit backed away from globalization, culminating with the last two. From an international economic point of view, the two most similar presidents we have ever had are Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
[...] The agrarian template dominated for literally centuries, until Stalin. Because Stalin's effect changed the way we live.
What Stalin did by helping the United States push towards globalization, is we suddenly didn't just allow any business to go anywhere. Any person could interface in that way as well. And if you started to take services and manufacturing jobs -- you weren't living on the farm anymore. And that changed the entire financial and consumption model of the human race.
[...] The majority once lived in a primarily country-based, agricultural demographic. We were living on farms, and when you live on farms, kids are free labor. You have as many of them as you need...
[...] The old model has some very specific economic and financial characteristics. There aren't a lot of people aged 55 to 65, so it's a capital poor environment. You have a lot of people under age 40 -- they're either kids or they're people who are having kids.
They're building homes, the need for credit is huge. So the cost of credit is high, but it's growth driven because of all that consumption...
[...] But with Stalin and globalization we all moved from the farms into the cities, and in the cities kids are no longer free labor. They become a burden... and adults are not stupid, so we had fewer of them.
And here's the Koreans -- now in a radically different model, suddenly awash with that capital rich demographic of people in their late 50s and early 60s. But you've run out of young people.
[...] There's no longer enough people at the bottom to consume, and countering that is an [older] workforce that has literally decades of expertise that is very productive. The whole world has gone through some version of this.
Transition at different speeds from different starting points, but we're all on the same highway. The Koreans in the next few years will lead us into something new, a world where that bulge in the population isn't young or isn't mature. It's retired.
We will have to figure out a fundamentally new economic model that is not based on consumption. on production, or on investment. What will that be? Not a clue, never happened in human history before. We're making this up as we go.
The Koreans aren't alone, Bottom-left, there is the Germans. Same basic model for the same basic reasons. This is their last decade as an industrialized power. They won't have a work force.
If we keep aging at today's rate, we will be in a Korean German style situation around 2070. That's a lot of time to figure out another path.
[...] Mexico signed up to NAFTA. As soon as they did that, urbanization started, birth rate has down dropped by 60%. If they keep aging at their current rate they will be in a Korean German style problem around 2080. They're just barely behind us in that process.
Since the birth rate has dropped off, net migration from Mexico to the United States has now been flat to negative for 14 straight years. [...] They've run out of young people, most of the folks crossing the border are Central Americans.
But 10 years after NAFTA, we got something called the Central American Free Trade Agreement. And Central American demography looks just like Mexico's with a 10-year delay.
So regardless of what you think of immigration, the situation at the southern border is going to look radically different in just a few years because Central America is running out of people to send...
https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/NZ-ESgZEgtE
VIDEO EXCERPTS: You all know it as globalization. It has always been a security ploy by the United States to fight an enemy. But the Cold War turned into the end of the Cold War, and in 1992 the strategic justification for this system went away.
The Americans had never invested their economy in it, because it was a strategic ploy. So we started down a spiral of ever more internally focused, narcissistic, populist political contests that brought in a series of leaders that bit-by-bit backed away from globalization, culminating with the last two. From an international economic point of view, the two most similar presidents we have ever had are Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
[...] The agrarian template dominated for literally centuries, until Stalin. Because Stalin's effect changed the way we live.
What Stalin did by helping the United States push towards globalization, is we suddenly didn't just allow any business to go anywhere. Any person could interface in that way as well. And if you started to take services and manufacturing jobs -- you weren't living on the farm anymore. And that changed the entire financial and consumption model of the human race.
[...] The majority once lived in a primarily country-based, agricultural demographic. We were living on farms, and when you live on farms, kids are free labor. You have as many of them as you need...
[...] The old model has some very specific economic and financial characteristics. There aren't a lot of people aged 55 to 65, so it's a capital poor environment. You have a lot of people under age 40 -- they're either kids or they're people who are having kids.
They're building homes, the need for credit is huge. So the cost of credit is high, but it's growth driven because of all that consumption...
[...] But with Stalin and globalization we all moved from the farms into the cities, and in the cities kids are no longer free labor. They become a burden... and adults are not stupid, so we had fewer of them.
And here's the Koreans -- now in a radically different model, suddenly awash with that capital rich demographic of people in their late 50s and early 60s. But you've run out of young people.
[...] There's no longer enough people at the bottom to consume, and countering that is an [older] workforce that has literally decades of expertise that is very productive. The whole world has gone through some version of this.
Transition at different speeds from different starting points, but we're all on the same highway. The Koreans in the next few years will lead us into something new, a world where that bulge in the population isn't young or isn't mature. It's retired.
We will have to figure out a fundamentally new economic model that is not based on consumption. on production, or on investment. What will that be? Not a clue, never happened in human history before. We're making this up as we go.
The Koreans aren't alone, Bottom-left, there is the Germans. Same basic model for the same basic reasons. This is their last decade as an industrialized power. They won't have a work force.
If we keep aging at today's rate, we will be in a Korean German style situation around 2070. That's a lot of time to figure out another path.
[...] Mexico signed up to NAFTA. As soon as they did that, urbanization started, birth rate has down dropped by 60%. If they keep aging at their current rate they will be in a Korean German style problem around 2080. They're just barely behind us in that process.
Since the birth rate has dropped off, net migration from Mexico to the United States has now been flat to negative for 14 straight years. [...] They've run out of young people, most of the folks crossing the border are Central Americans.
But 10 years after NAFTA, we got something called the Central American Free Trade Agreement. And Central American demography looks just like Mexico's with a 10-year delay.
So regardless of what you think of immigration, the situation at the southern border is going to look radically different in just a few years because Central America is running out of people to send...
INTRO: In this video, we explore the profound impact of globalization and demographic shifts on global economies. From the strategic American-led order post-World War II to the current economic and political landscape, we delve into the historical context and future implications of these changes.
Key topics include the economic effects of an aging population, the transition from agricultural to urban societies, and the resulting shifts in capital and labor markets. We also discuss the specific cases of the United States, Korea, Germany, and Mexico, highlighting how different countries are navigating these demographic changes and what it means for their economic futures.
Join us as we analyze the complex interplay between demographics, economics, and global policy.