Mar 5, 2024 05:30 PM
(This post was last modified: Mar 5, 2024 07:41 PM by C C.)
https://theness.com/neurologicablog/clim...tion-bias/
EXCERPTS: (Steven Novella): I love to follow kerfuffles between different experts and deep thinkers. It’s great for revealing the subtleties of logic, science, and evidence. Recently there has been an interesting online exchange between a physicists science communicator (Sabine Hossenfelder) and some climate scientists (Zeke Hausfather and Andrew Dessler). The dispute is over equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and the recent “hot model problem”.
[...] But – this does not negate Hossenfelder’s point. They decided to weight climate models after some of the recent models were creating a problem by running hot. They were “fixing” the “problem” of hot models. Would they have decided to weight models if there weren’t a problem with hot models? Is this just confirmation bias?
None of this means that there fix is wrong, or that the hot models are right. But what it means is that climate scientists should acknowledge exactly what they are doing. This opens the door to controlling for any potential confirmation bias.
[...] It’s all a great conversation to have. Every scientific field, no matter how legitimate, could benefit from this kind of scrutiny and questioning. Science is hard, and there are many ways bias can slip in. It’s good for scientists in every field to have a deep and subtle understanding of statistical pitfalls, how to minimize confirmation bias and p-hacking, and the nature of pseudoscience... (MORE - missing details)
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Hausfather & Dessler's response to Hossenfelder's Jan 27 video (at the very bottom) is the Jan 31 link below. Hossenfelder's reaction to that, in turn, is the Feb 28 video below.
Jan 31, 2024 - Revisiting the hot model problem
https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/revisi...el-problem
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Feb 28, 2024 - I Was Worried about Climate Change. Now I worry about Climate Scientists. ... https://youtu.be/uEZ9HFlqzms
https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/uEZ9HFlqzms
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Jan 27, 2024 - I wasn't worried about climate change. Now I am. ... https://youtu.be/4S9sDyooxf4
https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/4S9sDyooxf4
EXCERPTS: (Steven Novella): I love to follow kerfuffles between different experts and deep thinkers. It’s great for revealing the subtleties of logic, science, and evidence. Recently there has been an interesting online exchange between a physicists science communicator (Sabine Hossenfelder) and some climate scientists (Zeke Hausfather and Andrew Dessler). The dispute is over equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and the recent “hot model problem”.
[...] But – this does not negate Hossenfelder’s point. They decided to weight climate models after some of the recent models were creating a problem by running hot. They were “fixing” the “problem” of hot models. Would they have decided to weight models if there weren’t a problem with hot models? Is this just confirmation bias?
None of this means that there fix is wrong, or that the hot models are right. But what it means is that climate scientists should acknowledge exactly what they are doing. This opens the door to controlling for any potential confirmation bias.
[...] It’s all a great conversation to have. Every scientific field, no matter how legitimate, could benefit from this kind of scrutiny and questioning. Science is hard, and there are many ways bias can slip in. It’s good for scientists in every field to have a deep and subtle understanding of statistical pitfalls, how to minimize confirmation bias and p-hacking, and the nature of pseudoscience... (MORE - missing details)
- - - - - - - -
Hausfather & Dessler's response to Hossenfelder's Jan 27 video (at the very bottom) is the Jan 31 link below. Hossenfelder's reaction to that, in turn, is the Feb 28 video below.
Jan 31, 2024 - Revisiting the hot model problem
https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/revisi...el-problem
- - - - - - - - -
Feb 28, 2024 - I Was Worried about Climate Change. Now I worry about Climate Scientists. ... https://youtu.be/uEZ9HFlqzms
- - - - - - - - -
Jan 27, 2024 - I wasn't worried about climate change. Now I am. ... https://youtu.be/4S9sDyooxf4