Jan 17, 2024 06:30 PM
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles...05302.html
EXCERPTS: The International Energy Agency (IEA) turns 50 this year...
[...] Today, the prospect of a mere 40% oil-price hike evokes panic in politicians and investors. Many believe that an “energy transition” will move us away from the risks of dependency on petroleum, or hydrocarbons in general, but that’s where the naiveté begins—and it epitomizes the IEA’s problem. The need for secure, reliable, and affordable energy—and the need for oil, too—is greater today than it was a half-century ago.
Energy markets and geopolitics are at least as vulnerable to high-consequence disruptions as they were 50 years ago. [...] And over 80% of the energy required to fabricate and operate everything, including the digital features of our economy, is still supplied by hydrocarbons. Oil, the progenitor of the first modern energy crisis, remains the touchstone fuel in geopolitics.
Over 95% of the movement of all people, goods and services is powered by oil. Economies collapse if the costs of transportation soar or, worse, if transportation ceases. Since 1974, the number of cars in the world is up 500%, total maritime tons shipped is up 350%, and air travel has risen nearly 2,000% (in passenger-miles). And the quantity of oil supplied from the Middle East is greater today...
[...] And no, neither electric vehicles nor Tesla can change this equation. Simple arithmetic shows that even if batteries power half the world’s cars by 2034—an impossibly high goal—the resulting reduction in global oil use would barely exceed 10%.
[...] Lots of realities about energy aren’t going away, no matter the aspirations nor the spending. And, speaking of realities, it would be the very definition of naiveté to discount the chance that events might play out in the future in a fashion similar to the past.
[...] since its first meeting in Paris on November 18, 1974, the IEA has strayed from its initial mission and adopted a new raison d’être, one that conflicts with its earlier mandate as a credible, unbiased source of facts about the realities of the foundational industry that makes all else possible for civilization. What happened?
In 2015, the IEA recast its mission to adopt advocacy of an “energy transition” alongside “energy security.” And in 2022, the IEA doubled down on that shift, with its governing board voting to expand the mission into one “to guide countries as they build net-zero emission energy systems to comply with internationally agreed climate goals.” [emphasis added] While the IEA continues its analyses and reports on hydrocarbons, it is now internally and psychically conflicted because of its vocal public posture pushing policies to abandon hydrocarbons. As one recent report from the European Parliament put it, the “IEA has become an advocate of ambitious reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to combat climate change.”
It should be obvious that ambitions to rapidly replace hydrocarbons can themselves create, rather than ameliorate, the risks of hydrocarbon disruptions. And those ambitions also create new risks for disruptions associated with energy alternatives... (MORE - missing details)
EXCERPTS: The International Energy Agency (IEA) turns 50 this year...
[...] Today, the prospect of a mere 40% oil-price hike evokes panic in politicians and investors. Many believe that an “energy transition” will move us away from the risks of dependency on petroleum, or hydrocarbons in general, but that’s where the naiveté begins—and it epitomizes the IEA’s problem. The need for secure, reliable, and affordable energy—and the need for oil, too—is greater today than it was a half-century ago.
Energy markets and geopolitics are at least as vulnerable to high-consequence disruptions as they were 50 years ago. [...] And over 80% of the energy required to fabricate and operate everything, including the digital features of our economy, is still supplied by hydrocarbons. Oil, the progenitor of the first modern energy crisis, remains the touchstone fuel in geopolitics.
Over 95% of the movement of all people, goods and services is powered by oil. Economies collapse if the costs of transportation soar or, worse, if transportation ceases. Since 1974, the number of cars in the world is up 500%, total maritime tons shipped is up 350%, and air travel has risen nearly 2,000% (in passenger-miles). And the quantity of oil supplied from the Middle East is greater today...
[...] And no, neither electric vehicles nor Tesla can change this equation. Simple arithmetic shows that even if batteries power half the world’s cars by 2034—an impossibly high goal—the resulting reduction in global oil use would barely exceed 10%.
[...] Lots of realities about energy aren’t going away, no matter the aspirations nor the spending. And, speaking of realities, it would be the very definition of naiveté to discount the chance that events might play out in the future in a fashion similar to the past.
[...] since its first meeting in Paris on November 18, 1974, the IEA has strayed from its initial mission and adopted a new raison d’être, one that conflicts with its earlier mandate as a credible, unbiased source of facts about the realities of the foundational industry that makes all else possible for civilization. What happened?
In 2015, the IEA recast its mission to adopt advocacy of an “energy transition” alongside “energy security.” And in 2022, the IEA doubled down on that shift, with its governing board voting to expand the mission into one “to guide countries as they build net-zero emission energy systems to comply with internationally agreed climate goals.” [emphasis added] While the IEA continues its analyses and reports on hydrocarbons, it is now internally and psychically conflicted because of its vocal public posture pushing policies to abandon hydrocarbons. As one recent report from the European Parliament put it, the “IEA has become an advocate of ambitious reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to combat climate change.”
It should be obvious that ambitions to rapidly replace hydrocarbons can themselves create, rather than ameliorate, the risks of hydrocarbon disruptions. And those ambitions also create new risks for disruptions associated with energy alternatives... (MORE - missing details)