Dec 27, 2023 06:36 PM
(This post was last modified: Dec 27, 2023 09:09 PM by C C.)
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/whe...as-perfect
INTRO (excerpts): Global climate policy has evolved from an emphasis on reducing risks associated with altering the climate to one focused on seeing global average surface temperature as an indicator of the quality of life on the entire planet that we can fine tune through energy policy.
This singular focus is clear in the figure below from the most recent assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6 WG2 Figure FAQ16.5.1), which summarizes “reasons for concern” about “climate-related hazards” — these include “extreme weather events” and “large-scale singular events.”1
The figure is a bit complicated. It shows five different “reasons for concern” as the shaded bars, with the white parts at the bottom of each bar indicating that at these levels, impacts are “undetectable.” The colors yellow, red and purple indicate successively greater risks and impacts as a function of global temperature on the vertical axis, which goes from zero up to 5 Celsius. Near zero Celsius there are no detectable risks, and as temperatures increase everything quickly gets worse.
The figure is only the latest version of what is called the “burning embers” diagram, which has a 30+ year history. In 2012, Mahoney and Hulme argued that the diagram serves “much like an expressionist painting...”
[...] There is a lot that we could unpack here about science, politics, belief and the pathological collapse of the climate discourse into the notion that global average surface temperature provides a single, reliable indicator of human well-being and planetary health — what Hulme calls “climatism.”
Today, I’ll pass on those deeper issues and instead take an empirical look at the IPCC’s 1850-1900 “pre-industrial” period that has come to represent a time before climate change — the white parts at the bottom of the “burning embers” diagram. The Paris Agreement’s 1.5C and 2.0C temperature targets are anchored on this period of zero Celsius.
Climate activists claim that every increment of warming over the historical “pre-industrial baseline” results in more harm to people and the planet. For instance... (MORE - details)
INTRO (excerpts): Global climate policy has evolved from an emphasis on reducing risks associated with altering the climate to one focused on seeing global average surface temperature as an indicator of the quality of life on the entire planet that we can fine tune through energy policy.
This singular focus is clear in the figure below from the most recent assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6 WG2 Figure FAQ16.5.1), which summarizes “reasons for concern” about “climate-related hazards” — these include “extreme weather events” and “large-scale singular events.”1
The figure is a bit complicated. It shows five different “reasons for concern” as the shaded bars, with the white parts at the bottom of each bar indicating that at these levels, impacts are “undetectable.” The colors yellow, red and purple indicate successively greater risks and impacts as a function of global temperature on the vertical axis, which goes from zero up to 5 Celsius. Near zero Celsius there are no detectable risks, and as temperatures increase everything quickly gets worse.
The figure is only the latest version of what is called the “burning embers” diagram, which has a 30+ year history. In 2012, Mahoney and Hulme argued that the diagram serves “much like an expressionist painting...”
[...] There is a lot that we could unpack here about science, politics, belief and the pathological collapse of the climate discourse into the notion that global average surface temperature provides a single, reliable indicator of human well-being and planetary health — what Hulme calls “climatism.”
Today, I’ll pass on those deeper issues and instead take an empirical look at the IPCC’s 1850-1900 “pre-industrial” period that has come to represent a time before climate change — the white parts at the bottom of the “burning embers” diagram. The Paris Agreement’s 1.5C and 2.0C temperature targets are anchored on this period of zero Celsius.
Climate activists claim that every increment of warming over the historical “pre-industrial baseline” results in more harm to people and the planet. For instance... (MORE - details)
