Article COP28: Five reasons for optimism on climate

[geordief]

... (or at least incontrovertible  that it cannot be shown that they do  not exist)

Since science cannot show that things "do not exist," this is an a-scientific statement at best. Claiming it "incontrovertible" is just pure hubris.

An overstatement perhaps but does anyone seriously contend that tipping points in climate do not exist?

Are you just being contrary ? Making a mountain out of a mole hill.

Considering the climate has been much hotter and more dominated by greenhouse gasses in the distant past, it's demonstrable that not all tipping points are catastrophic nor irreversible. So like the triviality of "climate change," its not about the tipping points, themselves. It's about the doom and gloom the prognosticators have repeatedly gotten wrong.

And just a simple fact, especially in science, that nothing can "incontrovertibly" be shown to not exist. Misrepresenting science to support politics does a disservice to science.

Fine ,ride your own hobby horse.

---

A pity I  can't  track down  a clip of that  interview.

It doesn't seem to be on his website or YouTube and Erin Burnett doesn't seem  to do a podcast of her daily programme.

I can't be bothered wading through Nye's website ,especially as he seemed to be saying it was  a very recent opinion.

If I come across anything related to it in the next week or so I will post again here.

Perhaps there is a distinction he was relying upon between a single tipping point and multiple tipping points?

It seems incontrovertible that multiple tipping points do exist (or at least incontrovertible  that it cannot be shown that they do  not exist)

I couldn't locate anything on his website, either. It is unusual to not even find a snippet on YouTube (though occasionally it can take a few days).

- - - EDIT - - -

Okay, I found a 5-month-old video labeled NBC News where he's essentially saying something along that line, responding to mention of a tipping point. 

https://youtu.be/wheAZbSNT0w

TRANSCRIPT EXCERPT: I have to ask, is this the tipping point that everyone has been warning about, or is this just El Nino being a little warmer?

Oh, no, it's more than just El Nino.

So everybody generally believes right now that there will not be this catastrophic moment where everything chang
s like in the movie where the Atlantic freezes over or the Gulf Stream shuts off completely.

Instead, everything will just get worse and worse and worse.

The Gulf Stream will slow down, the conveyor belt around the world will slow down.

And these events, where it's really warm and the ozone is held near the ground by an inversion layer and all that, it's just going to get worse. And people have been talking about this for years...

https://youtu.be/wheAZbSNT0w

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/wheAZbSNT0w

Well done.Yes that was more or less his tenor. I don't think any new evidence has come forward since that clip   and so he seems to  be saying that the tipping  point as portrayed by Hollywood  are  not really very scientifically based.

In particular he maintained that the Gulf Stream  is unlikely to  "flip" but rather to progressively weaken.

And perhaps he is claiming  that the same sort of things will happen  in the case of other potential tipping point scenarios eg with methane releases from the tundra etc.

Things will just get worse if we don't take action.

I don 't know how credible or reputable he is  but this is part reassuring  and part worrying as some will just say "can't we live with that?"

[Syne]

Fine ,ride your own hobby horse.

Yeah, yeah. We know you can't defend your own statement. Maybe a learning moment for you.

[geordief]

Fine ,ride your own hobby horse.

Yeah, yeah. We know you can't defend your own statement. Maybe a learning moment for you.

I won't engage with you. I think you are dishonest.

[Syne]

Fine ,ride your own hobby horse.

Yeah, yeah. We know you can't defend your own statement. Maybe a learning moment for you.

I won't engage with you. I think you are dishonest.

You think accurate statements about science are dishonest?
Tells me all I need to know about you.

[C C]

[...] I don 't know how credible or reputable he is  but this is part reassuring  and part worrying as some will just say "can't we live with that?"

Bill Nye is a mechanical engineer. Sabine Hossenfelder is a theoretical physicist. They're technically both outside their area of expertise on the subject, but as "science communicators" who hobnob with peers in various disciplines, they're arguably obligated to study and stay informed on what they're chomping on.

Speaking of GS, I felt that Hossenfelder had released a video (below) about the Gulf Stream around the same time Nye was interviewed there. But it was actually months earlier (Jan 2023). At any rate, whether Hollywood movies or headline news, I guess the same or similar sources were responsible for a convergence in interest on it this year.

As she says, though, even when people do finally get the two straight, that doesn't remove the threat of a temperature drop for Europe.

I embedded the video, but the connection may be severed eventually. Thus, the URLs.
- - - - - - - - - -

Climate change won't stop the Gulf Stream. Here's why.
https://youtu.be/tnVWUIhQ8dE

VIDEO EXCERPT: Okay, so now what’s with the supposed collapse of the Gulf Stream? Those headlines are based on a confusion between two different ocean currents, the Gulf Stream and The AMOC -- the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, AMOC for short. It’s also known as the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, different word, same thing, but not the same as the Gulf Stream.

The AMOC is really a remarkably complex and super confusing network of circulations and not just one, but it has one major feature: It transports warm water from near the equator towards the North Pole. On the way to the North Pole, the water cools and sinks down, goes back south, and the cycle repeats.

The important point is now that the AMOC combines with the Gulf Stream, so that, in effect, the Gulf Stream is directed further North. The same thing does not happen in the Pacific Ocean. There is also an overturning circulation in the Pacific Ocean, but it doesn’t cross the equator and it doesn’t go as far up north, so it has far less of an impact on the climate.

What climate scientists worry about is now that an increase in global temperature could impede this overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. That’s because the ice at the poles isn’t salty. If it melts, that decreases the salt content of the water. If the water is less salty, it has a lower density, which makes it harder for the water to sink down. This could interrupt the overturning circulation.

When the overturning circulation stops, then the Gulf Stream will no longer get this extra push to the North. This would mean that Europe would cool down. Simulations with climate models have shown that the average temperatures in Europe could go down by as much as 5 degrees. This figure shows the change in air temperature that we might see in Europe.

So that’s the thing that everyone is worried about: that the AMOC will stop. However, this would not mean that the Gulf Stream would stop. The Gulf Stream is caused by the rotation of the earth. The only way to stop the Gulf Stream is quite literally to stop the Earth from turning. Even driving a pickup truck isn’t going to make that happen.

[...] It’s not only newspapers which constantly conflate the Gulf Stream with the AMOC, the same thing happens, unfortunately in a video from Kurzgesagt about the Gulf Stream. It’s to date been watched by more than 5 million people. I’m afraid this makes it near impossible for me to weed out this confusion, but at least now you can’t blame me for not even trying...

https://youtu.be/tnVWUIhQ8dE

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/tnVWUIhQ8dE

[confused2]

Considering the climate has been much hotter and more dominated by greenhouse gasses in the distant past, it's demonstrable that not all tipping points are catastrophic nor irreversible.

Does this in any way demonstrate a much hotter climate wouldn't be catastrophic for at least some of 7 billion humans? I don't think you understand the concept of a tipping point.

More greenhouse gases in the past? There are whole mountains made out of coal - this took more like many millions of years to remove the CO2 rather than the tens of years we see on the human timescale.

Coal mountain :
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/a...ia/474603/

[confused2]

When the overturning circulation stops, then the Gulf Stream will no longer get this extra push to the North. This would mean that Europe would cool down. Simulations with climate models have shown that the average temperatures in Europe could go down by as much as 5 degrees. This figure shows the change in air temperature that we might see in Europe.

Like the Gulf Stream might carry on but stop reaching Europe . At least I don't have to worry about the Gulf Stream - no more scare-mongering for me - why should I even care about those smelly Europeans?

[C C]

When the overturning circulation stops, then the Gulf Stream will no longer get this extra push to the North. This would mean that Europe would cool down. Simulations with climate models have shown that the average temperatures in Europe could go down by as much as 5 degrees. This figure shows the change in air temperature that we might see in Europe.

Like the Gulf Stream might carry on but stop reaching Europe . At least I don't have to worry about the Gulf Stream - no more scare-mongering for me - why should I even care about those smelly Europeans?

I thought that had changed.
- - - - - - - - - -

https://www.ouiinfrance.com/myth-of-the-...ont-shave/

"The idea that the French do not use deodorant is a stereotype that has been circulating for some time. However, the truth is that this stereotype is not entirely accurate. While it may have been true in the past, the use of deodorant in France has become increasingly common in recent years."