Sep 8, 2023 07:28 PM
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the...in-climate
INTRO: Long time readers here will be well aware of the problem of outdated scenarios that underpin climate research and the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The climate community is at long last coming to grips with this problem. The solutions, which are only just now emerging, will revolutionize climate research and policy.
Back in July, I wrote about a workshop held in Reading, UK that discussed the preparation of new scenarios to guide the IPCC’s 7th assessment cycle. Among the recommendations of that workshop was that going forward, the focus should be on “plausible scenarios.” They also emphasized the importance of a “current policies” scenario that projects where the world is currently headed to better inform near-term policy decisions.
At that workshop an influential group of more than 40 scenario experts from the community of integrated assessment modeling and adjacent expertise presented their views on the next generation of scenarios. Yesterday, that group published a pre-print sharing these views for comment.
I encourage you to read the whole paper, and to feel free to offer comments as it moves towards publication — I’ll be offering comments by the 1 November 2023 deadline. Today, I wish to highlight an important implication of the emerging consensus around the importance of scenario plausibility.
The authors characterize the importance of “framing climate pathways” — that underpin a manageable set of scenarios for research and policy. One reason for these is to meet the needs of the climate modeling community... (MORE - details)
INTRO: Long time readers here will be well aware of the problem of outdated scenarios that underpin climate research and the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The climate community is at long last coming to grips with this problem. The solutions, which are only just now emerging, will revolutionize climate research and policy.
Back in July, I wrote about a workshop held in Reading, UK that discussed the preparation of new scenarios to guide the IPCC’s 7th assessment cycle. Among the recommendations of that workshop was that going forward, the focus should be on “plausible scenarios.” They also emphasized the importance of a “current policies” scenario that projects where the world is currently headed to better inform near-term policy decisions.
At that workshop an influential group of more than 40 scenario experts from the community of integrated assessment modeling and adjacent expertise presented their views on the next generation of scenarios. Yesterday, that group published a pre-print sharing these views for comment.
I encourage you to read the whole paper, and to feel free to offer comments as it moves towards publication — I’ll be offering comments by the 1 November 2023 deadline. Today, I wish to highlight an important implication of the emerging consensus around the importance of scenario plausibility.
The authors characterize the importance of “framing climate pathways” — that underpin a manageable set of scenarios for research and policy. One reason for these is to meet the needs of the climate modeling community... (MORE - details)