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The energy transition delusion

#1
Kornee Offline
Mark Mills: The energy transition delusion: inescapable mineral realities
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgOEGKDVvsg
Maybe someone should rather urgently tap Elon (and EV/'clean energy' enthusiasts/promoters/mandaters in general) on the shoulder and point to that presentation!
Bottlenecks aplenty ahead it would seem.
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#2
confused2 Offline
To quote President Trump "Trust me, it will get cooler.".
The temperature of the planet is determined by God - there's no way humans could influence it even if they wanted to.
I passed on watching an AGW denier lecturing for 49 minutes - from the comments the audience loved it.
America needs real jobs in the gas, oil and coal industries not this leftist 'renewable' nonsense.
If America gets warmer there'll be a greater need for cooling which means more (not less) reliable (fossil) fuel will be needed.
If fossil fuels run out after a hundred years and it hasn't got cooler - Americans (the important ones) will all be so rich it won't matter.
Am I right or am I right?
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#3
Kornee Offline
What is for sure true is that a number of current trends are due to hit a brick wall. Massively powerful rare earth PM EV motors + huge lithium chemistry battery packs to suit huge SUVs & huge pickups is just insanely misdirected waste.
Mills is right about aluminum not being a viable substitute for copper IF market competition for the max grunt per kg of vehicle mass is the ongoing decider.
By 'sacrificing' to accept modestly lower performance, modestly sized EVs using aluminum wiring, non rare earth PM synchronous motors, and e.g. sodium chemistry batteries, things should work out there ok. Plus promotion of effective public transport.

As for the massive acreage already taken up by vast wind farms and solar array farms, and associated distribution networks and massive battery storage, projected to grow much larger again, safe and low waste newer gen fission nuclear plants would seem a much better bet.

Which may all prove moot if a likely nuclear WWIII resets it all.
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#4
stryder Offline
(Feb 15, 2023 01:58 AM)Kornee Wrote: What is for sure true is that a number of current trends are due to hit a brick wall. Massively powerful rare earth PM EV motors + huge lithium chemistry battery packs to suit huge SUVs & huge pickups is just insanely misdirected waste.
Mills is right about aluminum not being a viable substitute for copper IF market competition for the max grunt per kg of vehicle mass is the ongoing decider.
By 'sacrificing' to accept modestly lower performance, modestly sized EVs using aluminum wiring, non rare earth PM synchronous motors, and e.g. sodium chemistry batteries, things should work out there ok. Plus promotion of effective public transport.

As for the massive acreage already taken up by vast wind farms and solar array farms, and associated distribution networks and massive battery storage, projected to grow much larger again, safe and low waste newer gen fission nuclear plants would seem a much better bet.

Which may all prove moot if a likely nuclear WWIII resets it all.

His figures can be out if you take into consideration that the method of how things are applied can be altered.

The problem is that for the last 70 or so years, a majority of the westernised world has aimed towards capitalistic consumerism and therefore consumption. People assume they need all to egocentrically own their own cars and have their own things, which is why there is a limitation to what is achievable.

It is therefore possible for us to work around the problem, however it goes along the lines of socialism in the sense that rather than owning a car, a city or principality would own a car pool that everyone that lives there would use/share. This limits the number of cars needed however it goes against the grain of consumerist yoke and while there would be large contracts for car production to fill those pools, they would not be as near as large as what company executives would rather assume they can squeeze from consumers directly.
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#5
Kornee Offline
(Feb 15, 2023 03:36 AM)stryder Wrote: His figures can be out if you take into consideration that the method of how things are applied can be altered.

The problem is that for the last 70 or so years, a majority of the westernised world has aimed towards capitalistic consumerism and therefore consumption.  People assume they need all to egocentrically own their own cars and have their own things, which is why there is a limitation to what is achievable.

It is therefore possible for us to work around the problem, however it goes along the lines of socialism in the sense that rather than owning a car, a city or principality would own a car pool that everyone that lives there would use/share.  This limits the number of cars needed however it goes against the grain of consumerist yoke and while there would be large contracts for car production to fill those pools, they would not be as near as large as what company executives would rather assume they can squeeze from consumers directly.
Private ownership - the notional ideological bedrock and economic incentivization of Western societies - has proved vastly superior to the command style Soviet system where the state owns practically everything.
That kind of transition might succeed in ironically Scandinavian countries like poster child Norway, or Japan, - owing to the traditional culture of personal responsibility.
Try it in the USA, especially places like Detroit, and expect graffiti marred, filthy people shuttles where it pays to place close attention to the fellow passenger makeup. Although trending omni-surveillance could largely 'solve' that one - at a price!
Folks will always take greater care for what they personally payed for and own. But sure there will need to be a mix with various modes of public transport revamped to be more attractive and convenient to the masses.
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