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The aftershocks of the EV transition could be ugly

#1
C C Offline
https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-ev-transit...2659368857

INTRO: The introduction of any new system causes perturbations within the current operating environment, which in turn, create behavioral responses, some predictable, many not. As University of Michigan professor emeritus and student of system-human interactions John Leslie King observes “People find ways to use systems for their own benefit not anticipated by designers and developers. Their behavior might even be contradictory to hoped-for outcomes.”

“Change rides on the rails of what doesn’t change,” King notes, “including people being self-serving.”

As we noted early in the series, EVs are a new class of cyberphysical systems that dynamically interact with and intimately depend upon both energy and information systems of systems to function. When used as the catalyst to fundamentally transform an economy in a decade like the Biden Administration desires, EVs profoundly change both concurrently, affecting society on the scale of a magnitude 8.3 earthquake followed by the 1,700 foot mega-tsunami it creates.

Nothing in modern society operates without reliable access to both energy and information, and they are connected in ways we do not fully understand. Agitate one or the other, let alone both simultaneously, without comprehending or actively planning contingencies for how the countless and frequently fragile interactions between them will be affected, is asking to be unpleasantly surprised by the aftershocks created. Creating far-reaching technology policy first and then figuring out the myriad of engineering details needed to implement it second, is always going to be a high-risk strategy that needs an appropriate level of wariness.

The perturbations caused by transitioning EVs to scale are not market-driven, but government policy-driven to meet a climate-emergency. This need to act creates even more uncertain socio-economic and technological perturbations, disruptions and distortions to be dealt with.

How, or even whether, EVs would have transitioned to scale without the forcing function of government actions to decarbonize transportation and energy is an interesting one to ponder. EVs may have eventually replaced internal combustion engine vehicles (ICE) without government policy mandates, incentives and subsidies, but not in the time they are projected to do so today. A critical unanswered question is whether both society and government can successfully adjust to such a rapidly imposed change. (MORE - details)
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#2
Syne Offline
Electric shock: A new study found that EVs were more expensive to fuel than gas-powered cars at the end of 2022

According to a new study from the Anderson Economic Group, rising electricity prices — combined with softer gas prices — made EVs more expensive to fuel than gas-powered cars at the end of 2022.

“In Q4 2022, typical mid-priced ICE car drivers paid about $11.29 to fuel their vehicles for 100 miles of driving,” the study says. “That cost was around $0.31 cheaper than the amount paid by mid-priced EV drivers charging mostly at home, and over $3 less than the cost borne by comparable EV drivers charging commercially.”

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#3
confused2 Offline
(Feb 7, 2023 01:03 AM)Syne Wrote: Electric shock: A new study found that EVs were more expensive to fuel than gas-powered cars at the end of 2022

According to a new study from the Anderson Economic Group, rising electricity prices — combined with softer gas prices — made EVs more expensive to fuel than gas-powered cars at the end of 2022.

“In Q4 2022, typical mid-priced ICE car drivers paid about $11.29 to fuel their vehicles for 100 miles of driving,” the study says. “That cost was around $0.31 cheaper than the amount paid by mid-priced EV drivers charging mostly at home, and over $3 less than the cost borne by comparable EV drivers charging commercially.”


I'm not from the US so please confirm these prices (taken from the Internet)..

A Tesla (model unspecified) does about 4.5 miles/kWh.
So uses about 22kWh to travel 100 miles.
The internet suggest the US price per kWh is about $0.17 so ..
Cost of travelling 100miles in a Tesla = 22*0.17= $3.74

Clearly $3.74 is substantially less (about a third) than than the $11.29+$0.31 (=$11.6) claimed in the xYahoox [Edit Anderson Economic Group] study.

Any idea what's going on with this study? Have I missed an important point?
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#4
Kornee Offline
(Feb 7, 2023 04:39 AM)confused2 Wrote: I'm not from the US so please confirm these prices (taken from the Internet)..

A Tesla (model  unspecified) does about 4.5 miles/kWh.
So uses about 22kWh to travel 100 miles.
The internet suggest the US price per kWh is about $0.17 so ..
Cost of travelling 100miles in a Tesla = 22*0.17= $3.74

Clearly $3.74 is substantially less (about a third) than than the $11.29+$0.31 (=$11.6) claimed in the xYahoox [Edit Anderson Economic Group] study.

Any idea what's going on with this study? Have I missed an important point?
Domestic electricity rates and (various) purpose built public EV charging station rates are very much not the same thing! Apples vs oranges comparison?
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#5
confused2 Offline
(Feb 7, 2023 05:22 AM)Kornee Wrote:
(Feb 7, 2023 04:39 AM)confused2 Wrote: I'm not from the US so please confirm these prices (taken from the Internet)..

A Tesla (model  unspecified) does about 4.5 miles/kWh.
So uses about 22kWh to travel 100 miles.
The internet suggest the US price per kWh is about $0.17 so ..
Cost of travelling 100miles in a Tesla = 22*0.17= $3.74

Clearly $3.74 is substantially less (about a third) than than the $11.29+$0.31 (=$11.6) claimed in the xYahoox [Edit Anderson Economic Group] study.

Any idea what's going on with this study? Have I missed an important point?
Domestic electricity rates and (various) purpose built public EV charging station rates are very much not the same thing! Apples vs oranges comparison?
You [in the US] pay more than $0.17 per kWh for domestic electricity when used to charge an EV? The report was quite clear about the type of apple we're looking at..
Quote:That cost was around $0.31 cheaper than the amount paid by mid-priced EV drivers charging mostly at home,
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#6
Kornee Offline
(Feb 7, 2023 11:41 AM)confused2 Wrote: You [in the US] pay more than $0.17 per kWh for domestic electricity when used to charge an EV? The report was quite clear about the type of apple we're looking at..
Quote:That cost was around $0.31 cheaper than the amount paid by mid-priced EV drivers charging mostly at home,
I hadn't done any research - just noted your query referred to what looked like a generic figure. Hence the ? at the end.
So here is the first hit I found using "EV charging station rates compared to domestic charging" as search term:
https://www.homechargingstations.com/cos...-charging/
There is no article date to judge freshness, but there's a handy calculator supplied, and chart. And of course we are talking about a moving target or rather series of targets that will vary regionally let alone from country to country.

And another quick grab with actual comparative rates mentioned:
https://www.motorbiscuit.com/cost-to-cha...g-station/
Obviously far cheaper to charge at home if possible.
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#7
Kornee Offline
Getting back to the OP posting, Electric Viking has been consistently harping on the inevitable demise of legacy ICE auto makers.
Principally owing to the mandated rapid time frames for outlawing legacy ICE vehicles and forced switch to EVs.
Which has already and is set to further hugely benefit China, owing to their relatively unencumbered ability to switch production to EVs en masse.
Of course an all out war could dramatically change that picture overnight.....
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#8
confused2 Offline
I don't seem to get the same result as the (very credible) Anderson Group. I am sure they didn't just make up numbers - what organisation would pay them to do that?

Assumptions:
An EV (Tesla model unspecified) does about 4.5 miles/kWh.
An ICE car does about 30 miles/gallon
Domestic electricity in the US costs $0.17/kWh and the car is mostly charged at home.
Gas (petrol) in the US costs $4.25/gallon

I'm going to assume an annual mileage of 10,000 miles.

To get the annual cost of fuel you divide the number of miles by the miles/thing and multiply by the cost per thing. If this is a problem I'll happily do the arithmetic for whatever numbers you'd like me to use.

For the EV
(10,000/4.5)*0.17 = $377.78
For the ICE
(10,000/30)*4.25=$1,416.67

So if you travel 10,000 miles a year the fuel for EV would be $1038.88 cheaper than the fuel for the ICE.
If you have to pay $500 to install a charging point at home, notice that $500 is close to half of $1038 so after half a year (6 months) the saving on the EV electricity compared to ICE gas would be $1038-$500 = $538.

If you don't like my assumptions feel free to suggest alternatives and we can work through the arithmetic together.
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