Jul 14, 2022 06:51 PM
https://quillette.com/2022/07/14/the-met...r-reality/
INTRO: We are all finally beginning to grasp the concept of blockchain. Now we are struggling with the newest buzzword in technology: “metaverse.” If “metaverse” sounds like something from a science fiction novel, that is because it is. In Neal Stephenson’s 1992 novel Snow Crash, he envisaged the metaverse (meta + universe) as a 3D virtual world that existed parallel to the real world, similar to a simulation where people can use avatars or virtual humans to interact with each other.
Periodically, the Pew Research Center and Elon University’s Imagining the Internet Center conduct surveys using a wide range of technology experts to assess the future of the digital landscape to forecast if we will be better off as a result of that predicted future. In the most recent survey, we were asked to comment (based on our expertise) on a series of questions on this topic:
· “How might it change human society and our daily lives?”
· “What is the time frame for the infrastructure and the role of blockchain?”
· “What positives and negatives might emerge as a result?”
· Perhaps the most thought-provoking question was “How might it change the way we think about our world and ourselves?”
Like the other experts, I submitted my answers for their report, but I also decided to take a deeper dive into this topic. My focus as a technology analyst is on trends advancing mainstream adoption by the public, such as the development of the enabling technologies, the metaverse’s impact on the digital economy, and trends holding its development back, such as social issues. Then I provide a meta-analysis of these trends based on the current work of engineers, entrepreneurs, and social activists.
The Metaverse Hype Cycle. Historically, emerging technologies have followed a pattern of development that Gartner has represented in graphical form using the S-curve. To reach a goal, there is a series of steps you need to take, and you can follow the progress of each step to develop a technology forecast. The process begins with a proof of concept. Then there are a series of successes and failures. Pilots and astronauts have been training using simulations for decades and the gaming industry is thriving, but 3D television never took off.
Currently, the metaverse is in a crucial stage of development in the hype cycle. The surviving entrepreneurs will continue to improve their products. At some point in the process, the emerging technology usually either fails or achieves mainstream adoption by the public. With positive publicity, funding usually follows, and this is the path to success.
Another predictable pattern, observed by Roy Amara, known as Amara’s Law, is that we tend to overestimate a technology’s abilities in the near term, and massively underestimate what it can do in the long term. This is because we commonly overlook large-scale societal, economic, and technological trends that emerge gradually and continuously over time.
So, you need to separate the hype from reality—the true state of engineering. Typically, tech PR departments don’t tell us that their products are terrible and how much money they have spent on failed products. However, because of lessons learned from the development of AI, entrepreneurs are now hesitant to hype their products.
The building blocks. Similar to AI, the metaverse infrastructure is a convergence of technologies; therefore, it has multiple hype cycles. Accompanying these building blocks is an assortment of tech terminology that you need to become familiar with... (MORE - details)
INTRO: We are all finally beginning to grasp the concept of blockchain. Now we are struggling with the newest buzzword in technology: “metaverse.” If “metaverse” sounds like something from a science fiction novel, that is because it is. In Neal Stephenson’s 1992 novel Snow Crash, he envisaged the metaverse (meta + universe) as a 3D virtual world that existed parallel to the real world, similar to a simulation where people can use avatars or virtual humans to interact with each other.
Periodically, the Pew Research Center and Elon University’s Imagining the Internet Center conduct surveys using a wide range of technology experts to assess the future of the digital landscape to forecast if we will be better off as a result of that predicted future. In the most recent survey, we were asked to comment (based on our expertise) on a series of questions on this topic:
· “How might it change human society and our daily lives?”
· “What is the time frame for the infrastructure and the role of blockchain?”
· “What positives and negatives might emerge as a result?”
· Perhaps the most thought-provoking question was “How might it change the way we think about our world and ourselves?”
Like the other experts, I submitted my answers for their report, but I also decided to take a deeper dive into this topic. My focus as a technology analyst is on trends advancing mainstream adoption by the public, such as the development of the enabling technologies, the metaverse’s impact on the digital economy, and trends holding its development back, such as social issues. Then I provide a meta-analysis of these trends based on the current work of engineers, entrepreneurs, and social activists.
The Metaverse Hype Cycle. Historically, emerging technologies have followed a pattern of development that Gartner has represented in graphical form using the S-curve. To reach a goal, there is a series of steps you need to take, and you can follow the progress of each step to develop a technology forecast. The process begins with a proof of concept. Then there are a series of successes and failures. Pilots and astronauts have been training using simulations for decades and the gaming industry is thriving, but 3D television never took off.
Currently, the metaverse is in a crucial stage of development in the hype cycle. The surviving entrepreneurs will continue to improve their products. At some point in the process, the emerging technology usually either fails or achieves mainstream adoption by the public. With positive publicity, funding usually follows, and this is the path to success.
Another predictable pattern, observed by Roy Amara, known as Amara’s Law, is that we tend to overestimate a technology’s abilities in the near term, and massively underestimate what it can do in the long term. This is because we commonly overlook large-scale societal, economic, and technological trends that emerge gradually and continuously over time.
So, you need to separate the hype from reality—the true state of engineering. Typically, tech PR departments don’t tell us that their products are terrible and how much money they have spent on failed products. However, because of lessons learned from the development of AI, entrepreneurs are now hesitant to hype their products.
The building blocks. Similar to AI, the metaverse infrastructure is a convergence of technologies; therefore, it has multiple hype cycles. Accompanying these building blocks is an assortment of tech terminology that you need to become familiar with... (MORE - details)
![[Image: Fdhl_dQUcAAtycj?format=jpg&name=small]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fdhl_dQUcAAtycj?format=jpg&name=small)