Apr 28, 2022 02:38 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/russia-h...rader.html
INTRO: Veteran natural gas trader Bill Perkins warned Thursday of potentially “catastrophic pricing” this winter if Russia’s move to cut gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria ends in a full-blown energy blockade.
“It’s a dicey market right now,” Perkins, CEO and head trader at Skylar Capital Management, told CNBC.
“We’re in a hot-box button-panic mode,” Perkins added. “If Russia shuts off the gas and oil, Europe is going to be scrambling this winter to maintain heating, and just maintain their economies,” he said.
Russia’s Gazprom on Tuesday informed Poland and Bulgaria’s state gas companies, PGNiG and Bulgargaz, that it will halt gas supplies after the two countries refused President Vladimir Putin’s demands to pay for supplies in the Russian ruble.
The escalation sent the Dutch wholesale gas contract for the day-ahead, a benchmark for Europe, up more than 20% Wednesday. Dutch TTF Natural Gas futures are up almost 60% year-to-date.
“Expect an elevated price and lots of volatility for the next few years,” Perkins warned, describing his forward market outlook as “slightly bearish in the front” but “constructive and bullish long term.”
“Given where prices are right now, and the flows of LNG [liquefied natural gas] to northwest Europe, it’s actually a bearish situation barring the complete removal of Russian gas,” he said. “Given that they’ve fired the first missile … everybody else is on notice, so those bearish bets are trimmed back,” he added.
“In the winter, all bets are off,” Perkins said. “Without Russian gas, which is about 40% of their gas supply or their demand for gas, it’s really difficult to see how the market balances without running out of gas.” (MORE - details)
INTRO: Veteran natural gas trader Bill Perkins warned Thursday of potentially “catastrophic pricing” this winter if Russia’s move to cut gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria ends in a full-blown energy blockade.
“It’s a dicey market right now,” Perkins, CEO and head trader at Skylar Capital Management, told CNBC.
“We’re in a hot-box button-panic mode,” Perkins added. “If Russia shuts off the gas and oil, Europe is going to be scrambling this winter to maintain heating, and just maintain their economies,” he said.
Russia’s Gazprom on Tuesday informed Poland and Bulgaria’s state gas companies, PGNiG and Bulgargaz, that it will halt gas supplies after the two countries refused President Vladimir Putin’s demands to pay for supplies in the Russian ruble.
The escalation sent the Dutch wholesale gas contract for the day-ahead, a benchmark for Europe, up more than 20% Wednesday. Dutch TTF Natural Gas futures are up almost 60% year-to-date.
“Expect an elevated price and lots of volatility for the next few years,” Perkins warned, describing his forward market outlook as “slightly bearish in the front” but “constructive and bullish long term.”
“Given where prices are right now, and the flows of LNG [liquefied natural gas] to northwest Europe, it’s actually a bearish situation barring the complete removal of Russian gas,” he said. “Given that they’ve fired the first missile … everybody else is on notice, so those bearish bets are trimmed back,” he added.
“In the winter, all bets are off,” Perkins said. “Without Russian gas, which is about 40% of their gas supply or their demand for gas, it’s really difficult to see how the market balances without running out of gas.” (MORE - details)