Russia will be a 'pariah state in the eyes of many people forever'

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Russia will be a 'pariah state in the eyes of many people forever' and there'll be no 'starting over' while Putin is still in charge, expert says
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-p...ays-2022-4

INTRO: Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing increasing animosity both abroad and at home as the second month of his unprovoked war in Ukraine comes to a close. Amid ongoing strategy failures, mounting military losses, and the dire economic consequences of Western sanctions, Russia's future looks bleak, and it's almost entirely Putin's fault, experts told Insider.

"It's suicidally bad what he's doing to his country, its economy, and its standing in the world," said Robert English, a professor at the University of Southern California who studies Russia, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe.

The longtime Russian president's decisions on the Ukraine invasion face rising scrutiny as a small but growing number of Kremlin insiders have started to express doubts about the war.

Ten sources with direct knowledge of the conflict conveyed their concerns to Bloomberg this month, saying they regard the invasion as a catastrophic mistake that will set the country back decades. The report described the critics as being spread across senior positions in government and state-run businesses.

While Putin continues to present a confident front — hand-waving the true cost of Western sanctions and dismissing the political consequences of war — some Russian insiders are reportedly losing faith.

According to English, they have good reason to do so. The expert said Putin's foray into Ukraine has already proven more costly for Russia than the Soviet Union's nearly ten-year conflict in Afghanistan in the 1980s.

"The USSR lost around 15,000-plus soldiers in Afghanistan in a decade of fighting... and that was enough to be considered a 'bleeding wound,"' English said. "Putin has lost close to that amount in one month — not one year; much less ten years — but in one month." (MORE - details)
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Fatala Crapehanger: The media keeps cranking out these instances of empty, wishful thinking. Ten years from now, after the swift amnesia of the globe sets in, Russia's status as a "pariah state" will be no more worse that it was prior to the war. 

In the long run nothing much changes about Russia, including its relationships with the world (the latter ultimately needs the former's natural resources). 

It will always be that archetypal defecation pit that has some dark cloud of a sphincter or ruling group of sphincters hanging over it (sans brief interludes). Complemented by a kowtowing zombie population. A land that no one emigrates to except desperate expats on the lam from something -- or those with various legal, financial, potential sex-criminal issues hounding them (like Steven Segal).

The only time Russians ever revolted against anything in a major way was when they were offered a socialist tyranny that would make everyone equally miserable, in contrast to the imbalances of the old aristocracy. IOW, the one thing that its citizens do love is their wretchedness -- they'll turn a deaf ear to any utopian political promise that may threaten to deprive them of that.

Perhaps Putin is unloved in some corners, but he's reliable when it comes to maintaining the armpit standards and restricted conditions which the country has historically treasured. That's what ultimately counts, and why he really doesn't need to watch his back. Predicting the ills above and beseeching Russian conscience to overthrow _X_ is the usual runaway and impotent silliness of the Western imagination, parading about pretentiously on its soapbox.

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INTRO: Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing increasing animosity both abroad and at home as the second month of his unprovoked war in Ukraine comes to a close.

A bit of bias there. Justifiable bias perhaps, but it ignores Russia's justification for the war.

Amid ongoing strategy failures, mounting military losses, and the dire economic consequences of Western sanctions, Russia's future looks bleak, and it's almost entirely Putin's fault, experts told Insider.

Maybe, maybe not. The Economist has an article this week about all the countries that aren't cooperating with Western sanctions. They include  the usual suspects (Iran, Venezuela etc.), most of Africa, most of the Middle East, along with some larger players like India and South Africa. And there's the ever present elephant in the room - China.

"It's suicidally bad what he's doing to his country, its economy, and its standing in the world," said Robert English, a professor at the University of Southern California who studies Russia, the Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe.

Except that "standing in the world" typically means "liberal" opinion in Washington and the trendier European capitals. But China aspires to create an alternative to the economic/cultural hegemony of that "new world order" axis and much of the so-called "third world" craves the opportunity to stick their thumb in Washington's eye.

Most of the Middle East sees rank hypocrisy when Washington condemns "aggression" against Ukraine, after their invasion of Iraq and their war to overthrow Khaddafi.

The longtime Russian president's decisions on the Ukraine invasion face rising scrutiny as a small but growing number of Kremlin insiders have started to express doubts about the war.

Yes, I'm sure that's happening. I don't know if it will rise to coup danger against Putin though.

According to English, they have good reason to do so. The expert said Putin's foray into Ukraine has already proven more costly for Russia than the Soviet Union's nearly ten-year conflict in Afghanistan in the 1980s.

"The USSR lost around 15,000-plus soldiers in Afghanistan in a decade of fighting... and that was enough to be considered a 'bleeding wound,"' English said. "Putin has lost close to that amount in one month — not one year; much less ten years — but in one month."

Maybe, those are high-end estimates of Russian losses though. But they are increasingly credible.

What the American media refuses to talk about are Ukrainian losses. We hear about damage to the Russian economy, but what about damage to the Ukrainian economy? If the war descends into a war of attrition, everything will depend on how it ultimately ends. Russia can probably outlast Ukraine, wear them down and force Ukraine to accept its terms.

But Russia has already lost the ability to rather effortlessly pull Ukraine away from its flirtations with the West and back securely into Russia's orbit. They seem to have initially believed that they could overthrow the Kyiv government in days. The strength of Ukrainian resistance probably came as a huge surprise.

Perhaps the best that Russia can hope for now is a partition of Ukraine, with some part of the east annexed by Russia and the west "Finlandized", forced into a military neutrality while its people reject Russia and turn increasingly westwards culturally. Independent western Ukraine might even join the European Union. (Russia apparently sees the EU as so feckless as to not be a threat.) But Russia seems to have already burned their bridges as far as friendship with the Ukrainian people go. The Ukrainians (even the Russian speakers) seem united against the invasion. That anger will be lasting.

Worst case for Russia might be Ukraine emerging intact except perhaps for the Donbas and Crimea while it proceeds to join NATO and turns itself into an avowed enemy of Russia. Precisely what Russia started the war to avoid. All while the huge Russian army is exposed in its weakness and ineptitude. Russia started the war in part to reassert itself as a super-power, and that goal might have already collapsed in ruin.

So assuming that worst case, what would a weakened Russia do? It might overthrow Putin, but that won't end its problems. Russia might conceivably bend a knee and kowtow to Washington, but that's almost impossible to imagine. They are too proud to accept what to them looks like surrender. My guess is that Russia would double down in defiant nationalism. We may think that Putin is bad, but whoever replaces him will look even worse in Western eyes.

But if Russia is the so-called "pariah state" that the West so evidently hopes it will become, what could its leaders do?

There's one obvious option which would be to pivot to the east and enter China's orbit. Join as the junior partner in a Moscow-Beijing axis that embraces much of the Eurasian population and landmass, from the Baltic to the Pacific. Where Russian raw materials feed Chinese industries. Where Russia stops banking in London and moves its business to Hong Kong.

The one country that emerges the winner from this won't be the United States, it will be China. Russia's failure to regain superpower status will only lead to China's assuming that role. China doesn't want to join the "Western world order", it wants to create an alternative China-centric world order of its own. Pushing Russia into their eager open arms might be just the way for it to happen. It would certainly recreate the Cold War bipolar world.

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(Apr 23) China looks to learn from Russia's shortcomings in Ukraine
https://www.wvik.org/2022-04-23/china-lo...in-ukraine

Russia's military has not performed as expected in Ukraine. The Chinese People's Liberation Army, which regularly drills with Russia, is watching closely.
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(Apr 23) Xi Jinping: Vladimir Putin’s silent partner
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/202...t-partner/

For a time, the visible signs of China’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were nothing more than Chinese regurgitation of Russian propaganda. But now, according to one report, U.S. intelligence officials believe that Russia has asked China for more substantial help. It may already be coming.