Mar 22, 2022 06:02 AM
https://www.ft.com/content/63fc662c-098d...8435cd42d9
EXCERPT: Just before the outbreak of the war, most military experts expected a swift Russian military victory. That turned out to be wrong — and there will be more surprises in store. So all predictions have to be made with humility.
That said, there are three Ukraine scenarios which currently seem most likely. The first — which is both the most tragic and the most probable — is that this war continues for many months. The second possibility — put it at maybe 30 per cent — is that there is a peace settlement. The third scenario — which is perhaps 10 per cent — is that there is some sort of political upheaval in Russia, involving the overthrow of President Vladimir Putin and a new approach to Ukraine.
The long, grinding war scenario assumes that neither Russia nor Ukraine is now capable of achieving total victory and that neither is prepared to concede defeat. Putin is fighting to save his political life and the Ukrainians are fighting to save their country.
After almost a month of conflict, Russia has failed to take control of any of Ukraine’s major cities and has suffered heavy losses of men and equipment. The Russians may be about to conquer the strategic port of Mariupol — but only by destroying it in the process.
The increasing brutality of Russian tactics, which is on full display in Mariupol, is a guide to the future. As they get more desperate, the Russians may become even more vicious. There are ominous indications that the Kremlin is considering the use of chemical weapons already used in Syria.
But Kyiv has roughly six times the population of Mariupol. Surrounding Ukraine’s capital, bombarding it into submission and then successfully taking control of it looks beyond the capabilities of the Russian military. Even capturing Odesa, which would allow Russia to effectively control Ukraine’s coastline, could take months and involve the destruction of the port city that serves as the headquarters of the Ukrainian naval forces.
As well as causing terrible casualties, a prolonged war would steadily increase the risk of escalation. The pressure on western leaders to intervene would increase as atrocities get worse... (MORE - missing details)
EXCERPT: Just before the outbreak of the war, most military experts expected a swift Russian military victory. That turned out to be wrong — and there will be more surprises in store. So all predictions have to be made with humility.
That said, there are three Ukraine scenarios which currently seem most likely. The first — which is both the most tragic and the most probable — is that this war continues for many months. The second possibility — put it at maybe 30 per cent — is that there is a peace settlement. The third scenario — which is perhaps 10 per cent — is that there is some sort of political upheaval in Russia, involving the overthrow of President Vladimir Putin and a new approach to Ukraine.
The long, grinding war scenario assumes that neither Russia nor Ukraine is now capable of achieving total victory and that neither is prepared to concede defeat. Putin is fighting to save his political life and the Ukrainians are fighting to save their country.
After almost a month of conflict, Russia has failed to take control of any of Ukraine’s major cities and has suffered heavy losses of men and equipment. The Russians may be about to conquer the strategic port of Mariupol — but only by destroying it in the process.
The increasing brutality of Russian tactics, which is on full display in Mariupol, is a guide to the future. As they get more desperate, the Russians may become even more vicious. There are ominous indications that the Kremlin is considering the use of chemical weapons already used in Syria.
But Kyiv has roughly six times the population of Mariupol. Surrounding Ukraine’s capital, bombarding it into submission and then successfully taking control of it looks beyond the capabilities of the Russian military. Even capturing Odesa, which would allow Russia to effectively control Ukraine’s coastline, could take months and involve the destruction of the port city that serves as the headquarters of the Ukrainian naval forces.
As well as causing terrible casualties, a prolonged war would steadily increase the risk of escalation. The pressure on western leaders to intervene would increase as atrocities get worse... (MORE - missing details)