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Ukraine’s nuclear power plants at ‘unprecedented’ risk as fighting continues (design)

#1
C C Offline
Ukraine’s nuclear power plants are at ‘unprecedented’ risk as fighting continues
https://www.theverge.com/2022/3/2/229580...wer-plants

INTRO: Nuclear experts are increasingly worried about the safety of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants as Russia’s invasion of the country continues. The conflict has the grim distinction of being the first time warfare has exploded in a region so heavily reliant on nuclear energy.

“The situation in Ukraine is unprecedented and I continue to be gravely concerned,” International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said in an introductory statement to the agency’s Board of Governors meeting today and shared with the press. “I have called for restraint from all measures or actions that could jeopardize the security of nuclear and other radioactive material, and the safe operation of any nuclear facilities in Ukraine, because any such incident could have severe consequences, aggravating human suffering and causing environmental harm.”

Ukraine’s 15 nuclear reactors, which typically generate over half of the country’s power, have worrisome vulnerabilities in a warzone. Wayward explosions or a catastrophic failure of Ukraine’s power grid are the biggest concerns for now since the IAEA and experts whom The Verge spoke with remain skeptical that Russia would deliberately target nuclear power plants.

[...] There’s also the risk of a missile or other munitions breaking through the containment building or striking backup generators or cooling systems. Two waste disposal facilities for relatively-low risk radioactive materials were struck ... but there were no reports of radioactive release.

[...] Stressed-out staff poses its own risks to nuclear sites, experts say, because making a mistake on the job can be dangerous. That makes the wellbeing of staff “a humanitarian issue, but not only — it’s also a technical issue,” Grossi said at today’s press conference... (MORE - details)
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Ukrainians are fighting to prevent another Chernobyl
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/arch...ng/623878/

EXCERPT: . . . In taking over Chernobyl, Russia is implicitly threatening to cause all that pain all over again. The 15 active, aging nuclear reactors that are spread around Ukraine were not built to withstand an all-out military invasion. Some can survive airplane crashes, but probably not inadvertent strikes from missiles or artillery. Nor can they ward off a destabilizing cyberattack, or protect crucial staff members from being held hostage, as the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy said the Russian army has done at Chernobyl. Some of those staff may decide to flee due to threats of violence. An invading military, in control of those reactors, could dial up the threat of nuclear terror to engage in a wider threat of nuclear blackmail.

Russian control of Ukraine’s functioning and decommissioned nuclear power plants would be, in the words of one analyst, like having “nuclear warfare without bombs” if these plants were to be tampered with. When the Russian military captured Chernobyl, Vladimir Putin seized the means by which to inflict nuclear damage through a new form of “dirty” power. Russia is now in a position to cause immediate disaster by reopening a toxic legacy that was meant to be sealed. It could also create uninhabitable zones all around Ukraine and force the country’s people back into inhumanely dangerous cleanup work... (MORE - missing details)
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#2
Kornee Offline
An awful stream of thought is engendered in the casual reader. 'Mad' Putin planning to blow up who knows how many captured Ukrainian nuclear power plants? A kind of massive 'dirty bombing' vengefulness? Poisoning the country beyond repair?
Evidently Putin has completely lost the plot. Gone totally insane. Never giving any thought to the prospect that prevailing winds would inevitably shift around, blowing a significant portion of the uber deadly dust clouds of death over his beloved Russia too. And drastically reducing the effectiveness of Russia's military campaign in Ukraine - obviously. Not to mention the not exactly favorable pr such a move would generate worldwide. Uniting even former national allies of Putin against his (hypothetical) insanity.
And guaranteeing a massive backlash in Russia itself. So he is planning to both demonize Russia and ensure his overthrow?

And these same pundits hinting at such 'danger', simultaneously warn the 'West' just what a cunning and carefully calculating strategist Putin is. A 5D chess player who thinks well ahead.
Hmmm....something is wrong with that picture. IMHO.
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#3
stryder Offline
(Mar 4, 2022 10:21 AM)Kornee Wrote: An awful stream of thought is engendered in the casual reader. 'Mad' Putin planning to blow up who knows how many captured Ukrainian nuclear power plants? A kind of massive 'dirty bombing' vengefulness? Poisoning the country beyond repair?
Evidently Putin has completely lost the plot. Gone totally insane. Never giving any thought to the prospect that prevailing winds would inevitably shift around, blowing a significant portion of the uber deadly dust clouds of death over his beloved Russia too. And drastically reducing the effectiveness of Russia's military campaign in Ukraine - obviously. Not to mention the not exactly favorable pr such a move would generate worldwide. Uniting even former national allies of Putin against his (hypothetical) insanity.
And guaranteeing a massive backlash in Russia itself. So he is planning to both demonize Russia and ensure his overthrow?

And these same pundits hinting at such 'danger', simultaneously warn the 'West' just what a cunning and carefully calculating strategist Putin is. A 5D chess player who thinks well ahead.
Hmmm....something is wrong with that picture. IMHO.

There is a valid concern that any wayward detonation (even shockwaves from a blast not directly on the site) could potentially cause structural failures in the nuclear plants. The problem then is if a team of people (Doesn't matter from which country) are needed to make the plant safe, how are they going to do so through a warzone? (As no one is going to fly into a warzone.)

If something like that happens, it's as good as dropping a nuke on Europes doorstep which is as good as signing a declaration of war that spans beyond the Ukraine.
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#4
Kornee Offline
(Mar 4, 2022 08:48 PM)stryder Wrote:
(Mar 4, 2022 10:21 AM)Kornee Wrote: An awful stream of thought is engendered in the casual reader. 'Mad' Putin planning to blow up who knows how many captured Ukrainian nuclear power plants? A kind of massive 'dirty bombing' vengefulness? Poisoning the country beyond repair?
Evidently Putin has completely lost the plot. Gone totally insane. Never giving any thought to the prospect that prevailing winds would inevitably shift around, blowing a significant portion of the uber deadly dust clouds of death over his beloved Russia too. And drastically reducing the effectiveness of Russia's military campaign in Ukraine - obviously. Not to mention the not exactly favorable pr such a move would generate worldwide. Uniting even former national allies of Putin against his (hypothetical) insanity.
And guaranteeing a massive backlash in Russia itself. So he is planning to both demonize Russia and ensure his overthrow?

And these same pundits hinting at such 'danger', simultaneously warn the 'West' just what a cunning and carefully calculating strategist Putin is. A 5D chess player who thinks well ahead.
Hmmm....something is wrong with that picture. IMHO.

There is a valid concern that any wayward detonation (even shockwaves from a blast not directly on the site) could potentially cause structural failures in the nuclear plants.  The problem then is if a team of people (Doesn't matter from which country) are needed to make the plant safe, how are they going to do so through a warzone?  (As no one is going to fly into a warzone.)

If something like that happens, it's as good as dropping a nuke on Europes doorstep which is as good as signing a declaration of war that spans beyond the Ukraine.
First cited article in #1 more or less runs along those lines. Chernobyl(s) MKII owing to wayward artillery/smart bombs/cruise missile strikes. Hasn't happened to date. Suggesting the Russian military took a calculated risk, based on confidence in the reliability/accuracy of their 'surgical strike' weapons of choice. And it's worked so far at least.

Second cited article runs along the lines I outlined in #2. And that prospect is just so stupid. But many will take it seriously.

Without having access to fly-on-the-wall intel of the military objectives re nuclear power plants, one can only speculate. But I'd say there are at least two main objectives:
1: Secure those sites against Ukrainian partisans stealing nuclear material and fashioning dirty bombs to be used against the invading force.
2: Be in a commanding position to shut the plants down thus energy starving the country. Potentially forcing Ukraine to the negotiating table in a somewhat desperate position of weakness.

But the war will proceed whichever way it does - crystal ball scenarios notwithstanding.
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