Russian Ukraine Invasion

[Yazata]

Here's the first (May 29) issue of the best and most derailed Ukraine war summary that I've yet seen, featuring really good maps. It's a joint project of the Osint Aggregator site and the Ukraine Battle Map site and is a great example of the new alternative journalism. They intend to issue these updates every day. (Give it a little while for the maps to load, they are big files.)

https://www.theukrainemap.com/

Biggest events today seem to be that the Russians (the Ukrainian soldiers call them Orcs!) have entered the city of Severodonetsk and street fighting is underway. There's said to be fighting at the bus station and around a large hotel north of the city center. An evacuation convoy of busses came under Russian fire and a young French reporter was killed. The Russians are advancing through several factory areas of this industrial area and the situation is unclear about who holds those areas.

Earlier it seemed that the Russians didn't want to be drawn into street fighting in Severodonetsk. But commanders are undoubtedly feeling lots of pressure from the Kremlin and decided to go ahead when it became evident that their breakthrough at Popasna wasn't quite as decisive as they had hoped.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/stat...7862215680

Another other place where movement is visible is in the vicinity of Lyman, which fell to the Orcs on May 27. Ukrainian forces still hold several small towns, villages and crossroads north and east of the Siverskyi Donets river. This is a big enough river that it requires bridging to cross and the Ukrainians run the risk of being trapped on the far side. So it is believed (unconfirmed) that they are making a fighting retreat to the Sloviansk side of the river. Then the Orcs will face the task of crossing the river under fire, which didn't go well for them a week or two ago when they lost a whole Battalion Tactical Group trying to cross the Siverskyi Donets at a different spot. (The Siverskyi Donets river seems to be where most of the fighting in this stage of the war is happening. There's fighting all along the river that flows from near Kharkiv east past Izium and Lyman to Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.)

But that being said, there are rumors swirling that the Orcs have already crossed the Siverskyi Donets coming out of Lyman and are advancing towards Sloviansk from the northeast. Unclear if there's any truth to that. It could be serious it it's true.

A third place where movement is visible is at the far northwest of Kherson oblast, where it's the Ukrainians who are advancing, south of Kryvyi Rih. They appear to have crossed a local river and retaken an important local farm town and road junction called Davydiv Brid.

All in all, the Russians are making gains in several places, but relatively small gains at great cost.

Here's Militaryland's Day 94 Summary, also very good with very good maps. Recommended by me and perhaps just as good as the 'theukrainemap' site above. (Read them both!) With all of these, it might be best to read more than one of them and then kind of triangulate.

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasio...4-summary/

It's ironic that legacy news media use ISW as the primary source for lots of their stories while willfully ignoring the unofficial Osint sites. ISW is very enlightening but it seems to me to be prone to simply repeating Ukrainian government briefings which might (understandably) be biased. What Kyiv says needs to be backed up by information on the ground. (But I don't want to trash ISW since it includes good commentary by seasoned military officers about what the Russians are doing and about their chances of succeeding at it.)

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...ent-may-29

I don't think that any news media source should be taken as gospel. Many of them, including the less traditional ones, are useful data-points.

[RainbowUnicorn]

looking at the map
looks like they are securing the surrounding area to take control of the airport
i expect they will use that airport as a primary re supply position
but they need to clean out severodonetsk flight corridors from missile attack
so im guessing they are pushing into the town with 1 group as they go for the airport with another to get it up and running as quickly as possible

would be good if Ukraine can get some M270 MLRS so they can hit places like the airport when the Orks resupply

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/as3o_ggwGHA

and This
M982 Excaliburis long-range GPS guided artillery (45 kilometer range)
it can have its own air defense support with star-streak with additional stationed stingers

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/Fcz3wlMtatM

[Yazata]

looking at the map
looks like they are securing the surrounding area to take control of the airport
i expect they will use that airport as a primary re supply position

Good eye. There does seem to be an airport at Voronove and the Orcs appear to be pushing towards it. They were certainly interested in the Antonov airport outside Kyiv and fought long and hard to capture and then keep it.

[Image: 78f74e_ef9488934d994d57bb932b4f0b27177b~mv2.webp]

but they need to clean out severodonetsk flight corridors from missile attack
so im guessing they are pushing into the town with 1 group as they go for the airport with another to get it up and running as quickly as possible

would be good if Ukraine can get some M270 MLRS so they can hit places like the airport when the Orks resupply

Those were a big topic of discussion in the US today. The United States has apparently agreed to ship these M270's to Ukraine, but there was a bit of confusion about what kind of rockets they will be equipped with.

They can fire some 12 small unguided artillery rockets. These appear to have 32 km (19 mile) and 45 km (27 mi) range versions. I expect these will be what the Ukrainians will be getting.

There are also precision-guided extended range versions that still fit 12 to a launcher that can fly as far as 150 km (90 miles). It isn't clear if the Ukrainians will get those but it's clear that they want them.

And lastly there is a really really serious missile that fits two to a launcher, is precision guided and has a range of ~300 km (180 miles). I believe that these are the missiles that the US has indicated that it won't be supplying because they could be used to fire into Russia. (They are capable of carrying nuclear warheads although I don't think that the US uses them in nuclear configuration.) This is probably the version that Biden mentioned today in my opinion.

(The US is developing a 500 km (300 mi) range version but it's unclear if the US will actually put them into service. There's no way that Ukraine would get those.)

All of these fit in the same size boxes that fit in the same launcher vehicles.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M270_Multi...ket_System

Good video. I was unaware that these tracked launcher vehicles have a built in crane for reloading.

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/as3o_ggwGHA
[/quote]

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and This
M982 Excaliburis long-range GPS guided artillery (45 kilometer range)
it can have its own air defense support with star-streak with additional stationed stingers

Precision guided artillery shells!

The US has reportedly already sent an unknown but probably substantial number of these precision guided artillery shells (!!!) to Ukraine, for use with the 108 M777 howitzers being provided by the US to Ukraine. More were provided by Canada and Australia.

You know, this isn't anything like the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and against ISIS. This Ukraine war is a high-tech battle between Ukraine (increasingly fielding US and allied equipment) against Russia (technologically a near-peer adversary). It's good practice for a future war with China.

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/Fcz3wlMtatM

[RainbowUnicorn]

media report the Russians have advanced through half the city of severodonetsk

[Image: 78f74e_ef9488934d994d57bb932b4f0b27177b~mv2.webp]

if it was me i would retreat over the river and blow all of the bridges and set up waiting for long range to target the airport when they fly in supply's
looks like 3 or 4 bridges
and get set up ready to hit any bridging attempts they make

[stryder]

media report the Russians have advanced through half the city of severodonetsk

[Image: 78f74e_ef9488934d994d57bb932b4f0b27177b~mv2.webp]

if it was me i would retreat over the river and blow all of the bridges and set up waiting for long range to target the airport when they fly in supply's
looks like 3 or 4 bridges
and get set up ready to hit any bridging attempts they make

Well there is always the point of a push. The main problem is that you have the natural physical feature of the river acting as a decent obstacle to both the Russians and the Ukrainians. If they cede control of the city, they lose the ability to use it as a bridge head. Even if they don't want to use it as a bridge head, it should still be kept in play as if they did. It would then either appear in play or a feint to the Russians, which means it would keep their troops tied up.

[RainbowUnicorn]

media report the Russians have advanced through half the city of severodonetsk

[Image: 78f74e_ef9488934d994d57bb932b4f0b27177b~mv2.webp]

if it was me i would retreat over the river and blow all of the bridges and set up waiting for long range to target the airport when they fly in supply's
looks like 3 or 4 bridges
and get set up ready to hit any bridging attempts they make

Well there is always the point of a push.  The main problem is that you have the natural physical feature of the river acting as a decent obstacle to both the Russians and the Ukrainians.  If they cede control of the city, they lose the ability to use it as a bridge head.  Even if they don't want to use it as a bridge head, it should still be kept in play as if they did.  It would then either appear in play or a feint to the Russians, which means it would keep their troops tied up.

my thinking is

Russians have over whelming numbers and wont hold back waiting once they decide to advance
they don't have the communication to stay mobile on their front lines
they can only push in a single advance to one point
so it would seem to me that any units left in the city to faint would be smashed & lost
losing the advantage of being mobile
all they have is their artillery and over whelming numbers as the ukrainians run out of bullets more conscripts will be sent forward to die or take new territory
ww1 kinda stuff

what Russia seems to want is to capture civilians
i think that's part of why they have been attacking civilian transport to block evacuations.
civilians captured by Russia are turned into slaves
so they are POW's even though they are non combatants

so the idea of risking losses of civilians means nothing to Russia

that changes the way things move because Russia will run right over the top
 
if i was in control of the ukrainians they would be evacuated from the city by now & the bridges demod and mined

Russia is likely to roll its artillery into the front of the city to get as much range as possible
its a race against time for the ukrainians to bring artillery up fast enough to back up the river and make that the un passable border
then Ukraine can out range them and bring up air defense
russia will probably start using its air force as soon as they get troops into the city

forcing russia to use its air force to advance over the river
putting it in range of Ukrainian anti aircraft weaponry

the race is on to defeat their NEXT move & then smash their artillery
their next move will probably be moving their artillery up and using planes to bomb and suppress

Ukrainians need to be ready with star streak and stingers while staying out of range of Russian artillery

[Yazata]

Multiple reports that the Russians control 2/3'ds to 3/4's of Severodonetsk and the Ukrainians appear to be making a fighting withdrawal to Lysychansk on the west side of the river.

I basically agree with everything you said in your last post RainbowUnicorn. I think that's exactly how the Orcs are behaving (like Orcs) relying on force of numbers regardless of losses. And the Ukrainian generals do seem to be thinking like you suggested. They don't want to fight to the last man like happened in Mariupol. They only did it there because their forces were cut off and surrounded. But if a situation is untenable and there's an option to save your forces intact, then take it and fight another day. And I expect that they will blow the bridges once they are across.

[RainbowUnicorn]

not sure if these are on route, i hope so.

they look amazing

59 kilometer range ?
i think maybe the video narrator got it wrong
he said 37 mile range for the new type of missile

maybe thats 3 POINT 7 and the computer read the numbers not including the point.
so maybe the range is 6 kilometers similar to other anti tank missiles in the newer models

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/9ZhWo11NGyg

[Yazata]

This is a short 3 minute video that a chat-friend from the SpaceX streams put together out of some Ukraine clips. I think that it's pretty moving.

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/-n1bueXtQHQ

[RainbowUnicorn]

awesome video
Z is for Orc

see the Orcs getting out of the combat vehicles with a white flag to loot a shop

Germany has just announced they are sending IRIS-T air defense system to Ukraine 

[Image: Germany_approves_the_sale_of_16_IRIS-T_S...25_001.jpg]

i wonder if china & india are going to use US dollars to buy Orc oil