Russian Ukraine Invasion

[Yazata]

The map hasn't changed much in the Donbas in the last month. The Russians continue their very slow advance. Their biggest successes appear to be consolidating their position south of Pokrovsk and completing the capture of Toretsk. They are also inside Chasiv Yar west of Bakhmut, where they hold part of the straggly spread out town on a strategic ridge, and the Ukrainians tenaciously hold onto the remaining part. The ridge at Chasiv Yar and the capture of Toretsk threaten Kostyantynivka from two directions.

The Ukrainians appear to be in increasing difficulty at Kurakhove where the Russians almost have the Ukrainians encircled. The Ukes will probably have to withdraw their forces from the pocket soon.

But all in all, this war (which is approaching its third year!) is nothing like World War II where German and then Russian forces slashed hundreds of miles in a month. It's much more similar to World War I where the front line hardly moved during years of hugely bloody trench warfare. The Ukraine war has become a war of attrition in which the question is which side can hold-on and absorb losses longer.

(Maps by the Institute for the Study of War)

[Image: GiLLYUUWcAIqU57?format=jpg&name=4096x4096]

[Image: GiQmIiZWsAApaFS?format=jpg&name=medium]

[Image: GiQmLuFWoAAT3rC?format=jpg&name=medium]

A short distance to the south the Russians have completed the capture of Velyka Novosilka.

[Image: GiQlj5RWkAAneb8?format=jpg&name=medium]

Little has changed on the Kursk front in the last month. The Ukrainian attack in the last post accomplished nothing apart from getting several new British Challenger tanks blown up, but the Ukrainians continue to hold on tenaciously in Malaya Loknya against heavy Russian attacks.

[Image: GiQlqkNXwAAOpXg?format=jpg&name=medium]

nsNS

[Yazata]

Many vids on YouTube suggesting the NK’s are not very good soldiers and are getting annihilated at every turn. Are they really that bad? Are they actually involved much?

Yeah, I've also heard that the Norks have suffered comparatively high casualties.

Or at least the Ukrainians are saying that, since Ukraine is the only source of information on the war that Western media use. All Russian sources are dismissed as propaganda simply because they are Russian and often banned outright. (I used to compare the Ukrainian claims against those of Rybar, an independent Russian channel with good sources in the Russian military, until it was silenced.) Which leaves us having no choice but to base our view of the war on Ukrainian propaganda alone.

(I'm sure that the Pentagon has their own independent assessments, but they are classified.)

So working on the assumption that the Nork casualties are as heavy as claimed, several thoughts come to mind.

First, the North Korean army has no combat experience.

Second, the North Korean military has regular forces and elite forces. The elite forces are chosen for their loyalty to the regime and might be quite fanatic, thinking of Kim Jong Un as semi-divine. They are given the best equipment and the best training. I'm sure that they are the ones with North Korea's small stockpile of nuclear weapons.

The regular forces are composed of poorly fed, poorly trained conscripts from the villages. Their "loyalty" comes from knowing that if they don't follow orders unquestioningly, their starving families back home will be sent to the labor camps. And I think that North Korean military doctrine is to use these numerous but less reliable troops for human wave attacks and things like that. High losses don't bother Pyongyang at all.

And I would guess that the soldiers that Pyongyang sends to the Ukraine war aren't their best troops. They are expendables.

Third, the Russian commanders probably know all that and might be using the Norks for assaults where high casualties are expected and where they are under pressure from Moscow to keep Russian losses as low as possible.

The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff believe that about 11,000 North Korean soldiers have been sent to fight in Ukraine. They believe that of these, about 1,000 have been killed in action and about 3,000 have been wounded. That's a 36% casualty rate, in a comparatively short period of time. The South Korean general staff believe that North Korea is preparing to send more soldiers to reinforce the 7,000 able-bodied ones remaining from the original 11,000.

Wounded North Korean soldier captured by the Ukrainians. Very few Ukrainians speak Korean and almost no North Koreans speak Ukrainian. So South Korean intelligence has sent interpreters to listen to intercepted radio traffic and to speak to captured North Korean soldiers.

[Image: GiME0LaWUAAqNWM?format=jpg&name=small]

[Yazata]

Here's a very good map of the Donetsk front from Jomini of the West, showing where the military units of both sides are located. There appears to have been little change in the last two weeks. No big breakthroughs by either side.

Expand the map and read the text on the right side. It's a very well informed assessment of each side's objectives and the state of fighting in various places.

[Image: Gji6LkuXoAAXjVt?format=jpg&name=4096x4096]

[stryder]

In the News, Trump has been suck upto Putin and capitualating territory of Ukraine that isn't an American asset.

It's about time countries in NATO wake up and show America the door (at least until 2029). Embargo against all trade, Shut down all social media access, close down all american companies operating in their countries, send all Americans home from bases in Europe. (again until 2029) (I'd also suggest Greenland joins NATO)

In 2029 it would be possible to renegociate whats been shut, however if the knock at the door to be let in turns out to be a bad joke, the door should stay sealed.

edit:
I shouldreally put a disclaimer up pointing out that the views I put forwards can be satyrical in the sense that I can identify actions that could be taken if pissed off enough. It's therefore more a devils advocate position. It's not meant as some sort of hate speak aimed at the average American so please remember that if it touches a nerve.

Trump trying to make nice with Putin while undermining Ukraines soverignty isn't the only problem. Putin and Russia if disengaged from a war will not be busy attacking and undermining those that aided Ukraine, thats why no deal should be done without unilateral concent from all effected parties (That includes the whole of NATO)

[Syne]

You oust American bases and Putin will be marching into the EU next. Good luck with that, all you NATO countries who still aren't building and maintaining their fare share of military.

[Yazata]

President Trump is working hard on negotiating an end to the Ukraine war. To that end, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is in Brussels, where he addressed the Ukraine Defense Contact Group on Wednesday. The group is composed of individual nations and the European Union, created to support the defense of Ukraine after Russia invaded the country in 2022.

And Hegseth provided the outlines of a proposed peace agreement. I have to say that I agree with almost everything Hegseth suggested.

Hegseth explained that Trump “intends to end this war by diplomacy and bringing both Russia and Ukraine to the table” with the help of the Defense Department.

He said that each party “must start by recognizing that returning to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective” and that “chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering.”

But “A durable peace for Ukraine must include robust security guarantees to ensure that the war will not begin again.”

A major departure from past Biden administration policy was the defense secretary further stating that the U.S. “does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement.”

My view is that the spectre of Ukraine joining NATO, perceived (probably rightly) by Russia as an anti-Russian alliance and a Cold War relic, was believed by Russia to be an intolerable violation of Russia's national interests and is the proximate cause of the war. Russia won't stop fighting until the cause of the fighting is removed.

But if Ukraine isn't a NATO member, what form will the "robust security guarantees" take?

The proposal is that any security guarantee must be backed by European troops. If these troops are deployed as peacekeepers to Ukraine at any point, they should be deployed as part of a non-NATO mission, and they should not be covered under Article 5. Article 5 of the NATO treaty would obligate the US going to war with Russia (with the threat nuclear war) if any NATO ally is attacked.

Hegseth announced that “there will not be US troops deployed to Ukraine”, something that Russia would find intolerably provocative and would almost certainly scuttle any cease fire agreement.

However, the U.S. will probably be willing to sell weaponry to Ukraine. That part remains to be negotiated. If it does, Trump wants the US to be repaid by access to strategic raw materials deposits like lithium and cobalt which Ukraine is said to possess.

Hegseth didn't mention it, but I'd suggest in addition that Ukraine also be offered a fast-track to European Union membership and inclusion in whatever collective military defense structures that the EU might create. France has been pushing for an EU military structure separate from the US, and I'm guessing that the Russians would perceive it as less threatening and provocative than a US military presence in Ukraine.

Hegseth noted that the U.S. already has challenges of its own that it must face.

The United States must focus on the security of its own borders. (The US now considers regaining control of its own borders to be a national security matter within the scope of the Defense Department.) The US also faces a peer competitor in the Communist Chinese, with the capability and intent to threaten core national interests in the IndoPacific. The US is prioritizing China and the Pacific, and Europe must take more responsibility for its own defense.

Hegseth stressed that the U.S. “remains committed to the NATO alliance and to the defense partnership with Europe, full stop.” However, the U.S. “will no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship which encourages dependency” and will “prioritize empowering Europe to own responsibility for its own security.”

[C C]

President Trump is working hard on negotiating an end to the Ukraine war. [...] US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth ... provided the outlines of a proposed peace agreement. I have to say that I agree with almost everything Hegseth suggested.

[...] He said that each party “must start by recognizing that returning to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective” and that “chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering.” But “A durable peace for Ukraine must include robust security guarantees to ensure that the war will not begin again.”

[...] A major departure from past Biden administration policy was the defense secretary further stating that the U.S. “does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement.” [...] But if Ukraine isn't a NATO member, what form will the "robust security guarantees" take?

The proposal is that any security guarantee must be backed by European troops. If these troops are deployed as peacekeepers to Ukraine at any point, they should be deployed as part of a non-NATO mission, and they should not be covered under Article 5. [...] Hegseth stressed that the U.S. “remains committed to the NATO alliance and to the defense partnership with Europe, full stop.” However, the U.S...."

Just make sure this gets settled before the next administration takes over, otherwise it could be botched like the Afghanistan withdrawal. Where some key standards that were supposed to be met first were ignored by the Biden administration. Not that Trump can't likewise be blind to benchmarks not being fulfilled that he himself or his staff set. 

Peter Zeihan: "The phase one trade deal [...] seven, six years ago, committed the Chinese to buying X number of dollars of various products... But by the end of the [first] Trump term, China hadn’t met any of the criteria at all. In fact, they never intended to."

[Yazata]

Lots of coming and going associated with the Ukraine negotiations.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is headed to Munich, where talks will happen at the Munich Security Conference. So it generated lots of talk when his USAF VIP jet abruptly turned around and returned to Joint Base Andrews outside DC. Had the talks broken down before they even began? No, it seems that the cockpit windshield on the plane had developed a crack. The windshield has at least two layers of glass and it didn't rupture. But the plane turned around out of an abundance of caution and Rubio will be switching to a different plane.

[Image: GjtqHp0XgAAPcE7?format=jpg&name=900x900]

Meanwhile a smaller USAF Gulfstream left Joint Base Andrews, refueled in Rotterdam, and landed outside Moscow.

[Image: GjsQeihXQAAsCX-?format=jpg&name=large]

Both planes used "SAM" callsigns, which I like to imagine stands for Uncle Sam, but really means "Special Air Missions".

[Yazata]

Ukrainian president Zelensky is visiting Washington DC today and he, Trump and Vance just met in the Oval office for one of those smaller press conferences.

It did NOT go well!

Zelensky tried to tell off America for talking to Putin, who is morally evil etc., and Trump and Vance were having none of it. They called off the meeting and told Zelensky to leave the White House!

Zelensky's advisors must have screamed in his ear after that, and Zelensky issued a conciliatory statement on X afterwards about how he thanks the United States and is committed to achieving peace.

It's unclear what will happen with the rest of Zelensky's schedule. He appears to be cancelling today's later meetings.

My reading of what just happened is that Zelensky still thought that he was dealing with the Biden administration where he felt that he more or less called the shots and set the agenda. He quickly learned that no longer applies. He's facing a whole new reality now:

Ukraine needs the United States, their whole war effort depends on it. The US doesn't need Ukraine, so the relationship between us is very asymmetrical.

What the US does need is to avoid being drawn into a war with Russia with a high likelihood of going nuclear.

In big picture geopolitical terms we need to keep Russia relatively friendly and out of the arms of China, which is our real longer term adversary. Avoiding Chinese domination and losing Siberia to Beijing is obviously in Russia's interest as well. So there's potential to reach an agreement with Putin precisely because such a deal will be in Russia's interest as well as ours.

And Russia will only sign on to a deal and will only continue to honor it in the future if it's in Moscow's interest to do so.

So Washington must take Russian interests into consideration if we have any hope of reaching a diplomatic solution. We can't just acknowledge Ukrainian interests and imagine imposing a solution on Putin by military force. At least not without great cost and risk to Ukraine, ourselves and the world.

And Ukraine obviously doesn't like seeing the US and Russia talking over their heads, even if the talks bring a framework for peace to Ukraine and end the meat grinder that's draining Ukraine of the best of its young men.

International Power Politics being played out live on TV!

[stryder]

Ukrainian president Zelensky is visiting Washington DC today and he, Trump and Vance just met in the Oval office for one of those smaller press conferences.

It did NOT go well!

Zelensky tried to tell off America for talking to Putin, who is morally evil etc., and Trump and Vance were having none of it. They called off the meeting and told Zelensky to leave the White House!

Zelensky's advisors must have screamed in his ear after that, and Zelensky issued a conciliatory statement on X afterwards about how he thanks the United States and is committed to achieving peace.

It's unclear what will happen with the rest of Zelensky's schedule. He appears to be cancelling today's later meetings.

My reading of what just happened is that Zelensky still thought that he was dealing with the Biden administration where he felt that he more or less called the shots and set the agenda. He quickly learned that no longer applies. He's facing a whole new reality now:

Ukraine needs the United States, their whole war effort depends on it. The US doesn't need Ukraine, so the relationship between us is very asymmetrical.

What the US does need is to avoid being drawn into a war with Russia with a high likelihood of going nuclear.

In big picture geopolitical terms we need to keep Russia relatively friendly and out of the arms of China, which is our real longer term adversary. Avoiding Chinese domination and losing Siberia to Beijing is obviously in Russia's interest as well. So there's potential to reach an agreement with Putin precisely because such a deal will be in Russia's interest as well as ours.

And Russia will only sign on to a deal and will only continue to honor it in the future if it's in Moscow's interest to do so.

So Washington must take Russian interests into consideration if we have any hope of reaching a diplomatic solution. We can't just acknowledge Ukrainian interests and imagine imposing a solution on Putin by military force. At least not without great cost and risk to Ukraine, ourselves and the world.

And Ukraine obviously doesn't like seeing the US and Russia talking over their heads, even if the talks bring a framework for peace to Ukraine and end the meat grinder that's draining Ukraine of the best of its young men.

International Power Politics being played out live on TV!

Trump is trying to be a 1970's oil mogul in an age that is trying to go beyond it. In that particular mindset he's only concerned about himself and the circles that circulate around him where he's the centre. The problem is that he isn't actually the centre of the world, so his activities have been completely out of step with reality.

I'm beginning to question if the US has the leader they voted for or just a guy running a Chatbot to make all the worldly decisions of office (it would explain why his "truths" tend to be filled with holes and those around him never want to supply any fact checking to it). If that is the case, then literally anyone could do the job.

Zelensky has had his whole country under attack for the past 3 years by no less Russia. He's going to be suffering war weariness, jet lag, PTSD and just the knowledge of having to deal with Trump directly. Tempers would flair, I would expect the same occured often with Allied Command during WWII with so many commanders upsetting each other through their approaches.

Trump says he's doing what he does for America... well Zelensky is doing what he does for Ukraine (further to that he's also doing it Europe which should of Article 4'd a number of times over Russian operations in Europe).

Do people generally want peace? The answer is yes.... it's just how you go about getting it is the problem. Pulling Zelensky into an office and treating him like a pet monkey to do tricks for the camera wasn't going to go down well generally.

Will Trump try the same with Putin? or is he too much in love with the guy.