Russian Ukraine Invasion

[Yazata]

It's sounding as if the negotiated agreement for Wagner to return to its bases came about through the intervention of Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko.

There are lots of great photographs coming out of Rostov on Don showing Wagner fighters in combat gear ordering burgers at fast-food joints and standing in line at convenience stores. (The rebellion ain't going nowhere unless we can score some Monster energy drinks!)

We're a super-serious rebellion! Please don't climb on our tank!

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Reports that the criminal case against Progozhin has already been dropped and that he has been granted full immunity.

The status of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is unclear. He might have already been dismissed as Defense Minister and some unconfirmed reports/rumors say that he's been arrested.

[Yazata]

Progozhin and his Wagner forces have left the Southern Military District headquarters and the city of Rostov on Don. They seem to be headed back to Donetsk oblast.

It's interesting to see how the city population greeted and cheered Wagner - There's little question which side the people of Rostov on Don were on.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/16...2765073410

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1...0586323970

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/16...9293849601

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/16...8957220865

https://twitter.com/matttttt187/status/1...6829897730

Graduation photo with Wagner tank

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People wonder why military aircraft shoot out flares. This is why.

It's a Russian helicopter shadowing the Wagner column near Voronezh. It detected a surface to air missile headed its way so it fired flares. The missile had an infrared seeker that homes in on hot turbine engine exhaust. But the flares are hotter and brighter than the exhaust and the missile went for one of the flares, thus saving the helicopter.

https://twitter.com/Lukewearechange/stat...8593537028

[Yazata]

While all this excitement was happening in Russia, what was happening on the battlefield in Ukraine?

Well, it looks like the Ukrainians thought that Russia might have been starting to fall apart, so they were watching and waiting to see what happened.

Which means that the battlefield is basically where it was day before yesterday. If it's an opportunity for the Ukrainians, they still haven't seized it.

[stryder]

While all this excitement was happening in Russia, what was happening on the battlefield in Ukraine?

Well, it looks like the Ukrainians thought that Russia might have been starting to fall apart, so they were watching and waiting to see what happened.

Which means that the battlefield is basically where it was day before yesterday. If it's an opportunity for the Ukrainians, they still haven't seized it.

Ukraine was likely taking a smart approach rather than sleeping, as in all honesty you can't trust anything you see from Russia.

If Wagner's "Exercise" (Rather than "Rebellion" since Russia like to water their vodka down when it comes to pravda) had actually drawn war protestors, anarchists and other agent provocateurs, it would likely just been used as a method to oust them (or at least thats what people would of considered as a fear of what was happening)

Thats why it didn't suddenly become a huge march of defiance towards Moscow etc. (For something like that to occur, it would likely take more than a decade of poverty/sufferage before people start to weigh up what they are willing to put up with. Furthermore historically rebellions and revolutions were often crossovers of revolutions occuring elsewhere in the world. Such as the French Revolution being apart of setting the values of what would be the Communist rebellion etc.)

Of course back then people were more literary (reading books, newspapers and attempting to be intellectual to an extent) not like nowadays with fake news and fun cat pictures.

What can be gained though from the observation is just how much resistance was put up infront of Wagners march. Some local regions were literally digging roads up and trying to block their advance. The reason thats interesting is that literally any protestors, anarchists or agent provocatuers can exercise disrupting living in their area (digging the road up) if there is an active threat of a internal dispute attempting to reach Moscow (As they can identify as being patriotic and defending their country rather than a terrorist).

[Yazata]

When Progozhin called off the Wagner rebellion in exchange for shakeups at the Ministry of Defense, I had real doubts that Moscow would honor their part of the deal. Apparently they are:

Russian sources are reporting that Defense Minister Shoigu is under house arrest and that the FSB is investigating theft from the MoD budget. The sources say that Shoigu's entourage/staff is panicking and that personnel shakeups will be announced shortly.

[Image: FzhMVsuaUAAbDwU?format=jpg&name=medium]

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[Yazata]

Progozhin has issued a statement. Here's the highlights:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/16733...04994.html

Comments by me in brackets: [Existing Russian law forbids the operation of private armies inside the borders of the Russian Federation. But given the problems that the regular army encountered in the Special Military Operation, that law was apparently temporarily waived to allow Wagner to take part in the operation.]

Progozhin says that the Wagner Group was bound to cease operations on July 1. [And he apparently blames enemies within the Defense Ministry.]

Progozhin says the aim of the march on Moscow was to avoid the destruction of the Wagner Group.

He says that the purpose of the "March for Justice" was not to overthrow the government.

He says that Wagner advanced north 780 km during 24 hours during the "March" [suggesting that they were meeting little or no opposition] and halted it about 200 km south of Moscow. He claims that they stopped to avoid bloodshed because they had reached a point where any further advance would require combat with the Russian army. [Other reports suggest that during this time negotiations were taking place through the aid of Belarussian President Lukashenko. This version claims that the halt occurred when a deal was struck.]

Progozhin says that President Lukashenko offered to find solutions for the further work of Wagner PMC "within legal jurisdiction". [Unclear what that means. Some are interpreting it as an offer to allow Wagner to continue operating inside Belarus. But it might just mean that he promises to try to persuade Moscow not to disband Wagner.]

Progozhin says that all along the march, Russian civilians enthusiastically welcomed them as fighters "against bureaucracy". [The video from Rostov on Don supports this.]

And Progozhin says that so far, none of his fighters have accepted offers to join the regular Russian army.

[stryder]

From what I can tell (and piece together from whats been said) I think events went a bit like this:

• Progozhin moaned multiple times about low supplies and lack of support from Shoigu
  
• Shoigu pointed out that Wagner is a mercenary group and not valid for Russian Military resources
  
• Progozhin calls him out on being corrupt, ineffectual etc.
  
• Shoigu starts a legal process against Wagner for being a Mercenary group (Merc groups being Illegal in Russia apparently)
  
• Progozhin starts his march with Wagner to confront Shoigu
  
• Due to fear of unrest Putin makes his statement
  
• Lushenko contacts Progozhin to offer a work around for Shoigu's criminal process towards Wagner since it wouldn't be illegal for Wagner to operate from Belarus (He owed him one since Wagner is who aided ousting the democratically elected leadership)
  

As to where it will head... Well it's a bloody soap opera.

[Yazata]

I agree with your analysis, Stryder.

From what I can tell (and piece together from whats been said) I think events went a bit like this:

I would add a couple of initial steps:

* Upon the failure of their initial invasion, and especially after their defeats at Izium and Kherson, the Russian government is desperate and recruits Wagner to take part in the Ukraine war. I don't know the details of their agreement, but this presumably included some way to avoid the law forbidding private armies from operating in the Russian Federation (perhaps because occupied Ukraine had a different status, despite having been annexed) and an agreement to supply Wagner with weapons and ammunition. They are given primary responsibility for the Bakhmut/Solidar front.

* Wagner proceeds to operate independently and at times refuses to take orders from the general staff. The idea of a Russian military force that wasn't under their control created lots of hostility in the Army command and the MoD. Especially when Wagner showed them up by being Russia's most successful military unit. So Wagner generated lots of enemies in the high command.

* Progozhin moaned multiple times about low supplies and lack of support from Shoigu

Seen one way, that was their enemies' way of punishing Wagner. I'm sure that's how Progozhin saw it. (He was in Bakhmut himself and not leading from a desk, so he saw his men dying every day.) But seen another way, all of the Russian forces were experiencing shortages. Because of the intense battles in Bakhmut, Wagner was making heavier demands on ammunition and supplies than other conventional units. What's more, at the time the high command was laser focused on preparing for the Ukrainian spring offensive. Capturing Bakhmut was secondary. The Russian success (so far) in repelling the offensive shows that the generals might have been right about those priorities.

* Shoigu pointed out that Wagner is a mercenary group and not valid for Russian Military resources
* Progozhin calls him out on being corrupt, ineffectual etc.
* Shoigu starts a legal process against Wagner for being a Mercenary group (Merc groups being Illegal in Russia apparently)
* Progozhin starts his march with Wagner to confront Shoigu
* Due to fear of unrest Putin makes his statement
* Lushenko contacts Progozhin to offer a work around for Shoigu's criminal process towards Wagner since it wouldn't be illegal for Wagner to operate from Belarus (He owed him one since Wagner is who aided ousting the democratically elected leadership)

Yes, that seems to be how it played out.

As to where it will head... Well it's a bloody soap opera.

A hollywood movie.

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Reports today by various Russian sources that columns of Wagner fighters and vehicles have started crossing from Russian territory into the Belarussian Mogilev region. There's still no photographic confirmation of this. There are also rumors of a network of Wagner camps being built in southern Belarus towards the Ukraine border. And Progozhin appears to be in Belarus.

So Wagner doesn't seem to be going away, nor is it accepting banishment to Africa. (Wagner fighters have been serving Moscow's policy interests by assisting several African countries with battles against rebels and Islamic militants. Moscow would seemingly prefer if the private army stuck to that role.)

And there's lots of talk that Defense Minister Shoigu was photographed at a Kremlin meeting today, and doesn't appear to be under house arrest.

And there's indications that Russian criminal charges against Progozhin have been reinstated. If Moscow puts out an arrest warrant for Progozhin, I wonder if Belarus would arrest him and extradite him. If they didn't, Putin could make things hard for Belarus. But Putin needs Belarus, perhaps the best ally that Russia currently has.

Putin might be willing to let the threat of arrest dissuade Progozhin from returning to Russia (where he's too popular with the Russian people for Putin's comfort) without ending Wagner's usefulness to Russia as a proxy force outside Russian borders. Stationing them on Ukraine's border north of Kyiv would even keep them engaged in the Ukraine war. They wouldn't even need to cross the border towards Kyiv, Ukraine would still have to take several of their stronger brigades away from fighting elsewhere to counter them.

[confused2]

Some sources report..
"Wagner ‘shot down seven Russian aircraft and killed 13 airmen’ during coup attempt"
and some don't.
Fake or not fake?

[C C]

Some sources report..
"Wagner ‘shot down seven Russian aircraft and killed 13 airmen’ during coup attempt"
and some don't.
Fake or not fake?

We all know the mainstream media and the establishment only deal in truth and facts.

I guess the deal was better than Rome paying the Huns massive amounts of gold every year to not progress any farther.

Prigozhin says he's sorry Wagner mercenaries shot down Russian aircraft, but the military might not forgive them for killing its service members
https://news.yahoo.com/prigozhin-says-he...24760.html

KEY POINTS: Wagner fighters downed several Russian military aircraft during their short-lived rebellion. Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Monday that he regretted the engagements, which reportedly left pilots dead. But it's unclear if the Russian military is going to readily forgive the mercenaries for the bloodshed.

The 24-Hour Mutiny That Could Bring Down Putin ... https://youtu.be/Uo5jMNGgxiM

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/Uo5jMNGgxiM