Russian Ukraine Invasion

Yazata Offline
Photos from Bakhmut

Ukrainian defense commanders


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[Image: FlF-ySUWYAAX7Nh?format=jpg&name=large]



On the streets (the car he's passing just to his left looks like my car!)


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Soldiers. The one on the right with the grey beard doesn't look like he's the youngest guy. I notice that most of them are staring at cellphones.


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Evacuating one of the last civilians left in town


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She's in the armored personnel carrier with fighting literally right next door


[Image: FlF9weSXoAEYrkP?format=jpg&name=large]
[Image: FlF9weSXoAEYrkP?format=jpg&name=large]

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Yazata Offline
Oh the tangled games the spooks play...

Lots of excitement on the Osint channels tonight about a letter being publicized in Kyiv Ukraine, supposedly taken from a Russian banking official's phone, that directs the Russian Central Bank to prepare orders to banks in Russia to sieze depositors deposits and replace them with war bonds for the "Special Military Operation". This is accompanied by supposed photos of crowds lined up in front of banks to withdraw their deposits before they are seized.

Investigation reveals that the letter is almost certainly fake and the photos of the supposed bank run are months old showing people lined up for something else.

It's pointed out that the names on the letter aren't those who would authorize such a thing, the Presidential Decree cited that supposedly authorizes the action has nothing to do with it, and the letter's numbering scheme isn't how the Russian Central Bank numbers its official letters. Searches of the Russian Central Bank website reveal nothing like this.

https://twitter.com/osint_east/status/16...2124353536

Somebody, Ukrainian Intelligence presumably, seems to trying to start a panic in Russia, hoping to start a run on their banks.

The letter


[Image: FlBIlmAWQAEPJR7?format=jpg&name=large]
[Image: FlBIlmAWQAEPJR7?format=jpg&name=large]



English translation


[Image: FlBIll1WIAEUJ2J?format=jpg&name=large]
[Image: FlBIll1WIAEUJ2J?format=jpg&name=large]

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Zinjanthropos Offline
(Dec 29, 2022 01:57 AM)Yazata Wrote: Photos from Bakhmut

She's in the armored personnel carrier with fighting literally right next door


[Image: FlF9weSXoAEYrkP?format=jpg&name=large]
[Image: FlF9weSXoAEYrkP?format=jpg&name=large]


Enlarge the photo and there’s a box labeled Coldmaster, a company that specializes in winter wear ( i.e. long johns). Was the box put in there to protect it from harm?
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Yazata Offline
(Dec 29, 2022 05:13 AM)Zinjanthropos Wrote:
(Dec 29, 2022 01:57 AM)Yazata Wrote: Photos from Bakhmut

She's in the armored personnel carrier with fighting literally right next door


[Image: FlF9weSXoAEYrkP?format=jpg&name=large]
[Image: FlF9weSXoAEYrkP?format=jpg&name=large]


Enlarge the photo and there’s a box labeled Coldmaster, a company that specializes in winter wear ( i.e. long johns). Was the box put in there to protect it from harm?

Their shipment of thermal underwear is probably the most precious thing they have!!

The armored personnel carrier is a US made M113. The US has donated some 200 of them to Ukraine, and Ukraine has received ~200 more from a whole variety of other countries.
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stryder Offline
(Dec 29, 2022 05:00 AM)Yazata Wrote: Oh the tangled games the spooks play...

Lots of excitement on the Osint channels tonight about a letter being publicized in Kyiv Ukraine, supposedly taken from a Russian banking official's phone, that directs the Russian Central Bank to prepare orders to banks in Russia to sieze depositors deposits and replace them with war bonds for the "Special Military Operation". This is accompanied by supposed photos of crowds lined up in front of banks to withdraw their deposits before they are seized.

Investigation reveals that the letter is almost certainly fake and the photos of the supposed bank run are months old showing people lined up for something else.

It's pointed out that the names on the letter aren't those who would authorize such a thing, the Presidential Decree cited that supposedly authorizes the action has nothing to do with it, and the letter's numbering scheme isn't how the Russian Central Bank numbers its official letters. Searches of the Russian Central Bank website reveal nothing like this.

https://twitter.com/osint_east/status/16...2124353536

Somebody, Ukrainian Intelligence presumably, seems to trying to start a panic in Russia, hoping to start a run on their banks.

The letter


[Image: FlBIlmAWQAEPJR7?format=jpg&name=large]
[Image: FlBIlmAWQAEPJR7?format=jpg&name=large]



English translation


[Image: FlBIll1WIAEUJ2J?format=jpg&name=large]
[Image: FlBIll1WIAEUJ2J?format=jpg&name=large]


financially Russia could be scraping the barrel for money. (Or maybe a ransomware attack?)

I'd assume a Wagner hitsquad has been actively taking out Oligarchs (Most recently the Sausage Tycoon) that aren't 100% aligned with their goals so they can liquidate their assets and pay their own troops (I don't think they give a stuff about the Regular Russian army, if anything Wagner are likely the reason that the Regular army was missing a lot of provisions).
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confused2 Offline
Apart from a 50% crash in March the ruble has looked fairly perky (5 year figures) for most of the invasion. Another possible crash on the way but in fairness these rises and falls are manipulated by people who only make money when the value changes (either way).
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/RUBUSD/
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Zinjanthropos Offline
(Dec 29, 2022 05:56 AM)Yazata Wrote:
(Dec 29, 2022 05:13 AM)Zinjanthropos Wrote:
(Dec 29, 2022 01:57 AM)Yazata Wrote: Photos from Bakhmut

She's in the armored personnel carrier with fighting literally right next door


[Image: FlF9weSXoAEYrkP?format=jpg&name=large]
[Image: FlF9weSXoAEYrkP?format=jpg&name=large]


Enlarge the photo and there’s a box labeled Coldmaster, a company that specializes in winter wear ( i.e. long johns). Was the box put in there to protect it from harm?

Their shipment of thermal underwear is probably the most precious thing they have!!

The armored personnel carrier is a US made M113. The US has donated some 200 of them to Ukraine, and Ukraine has received ~200 more from a whole variety of other countries.

The thermal wear had the same importance as the civilian, both made as safe as possible. My first thought was that the lady is a black marketeer and was caught with the undies. The firefight may be with her cohorts.
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RainbowUnicorn Offline
(Dec 29, 2022 05:00 AM)Yazata Wrote: Oh the tangled games the spooks play...

Lots of excitement on the Osint channels tonight about a letter being publicized in Kyiv Ukraine, supposedly taken from a Russian banking official's phone, that directs the Russian Central Bank to prepare orders to banks in Russia to sieze depositors deposits and replace them with war bonds for the "Special Military Operation". This is accompanied by supposed photos of crowds lined up in front of banks to withdraw their deposits before they are seized.

Investigation reveals that the letter is almost certainly fake and the photos of the supposed bank run are months old showing people lined up for something else.

It's pointed out that the names on the letter aren't those who would authorize such a thing, the Presidential Decree cited that supposedly authorizes the action has nothing to do with it, and the letter's numbering scheme isn't how the Russian Central Bank numbers its official letters. Searches of the Russian Central Bank website reveal nothing like this.

https://twitter.com/osint_east/status/16...2124353536

Somebody, Ukrainian Intelligence presumably, seems to trying to start a panic in Russia, hoping to start a run on their banks.

The letter

a run on russian banks would be supreme fabulousness
given that preferred currency inside russia is probably forex Euro, pounds & us dollars.
middle class russians with forex accounts will likely have their money frozen & so need to dip into their ruble accounts to draw for living costs.

which should off set nicely with the sanctions to undermine the value of the ruble even further.

russia raising interest rates only works in the short term and while russians dont need to buy anything but as russians use their winter stores and winter money they will be looking to start to purchase more as winter comes to an end.
instead of a summer of extra low cost items they will have a summer of less higher cost items.
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