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Record levels of gun violence & the Democrats’ dilemma (stats & polls)

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https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-com...ts-dilemma

EXCERPTS: Just weeks after taking office as Mayor of New York, Eric Adams faces a political and public-policy challenge that is vexing Democratic mayors across the country—and President Joe Biden. Gun violence in the United States is at record levels, and Democrats are under intense pressure to bring down violent crime while also curbing police abuse.

More than two-thirds of the country’s largest cities [...] experienced an increase in homicides in 2021, a continuation of a surge in violence that some officials had hoped would fade as covid-19 lockdowns eased. Instead, homicides have also risen in smaller cities...

All told, more than twenty thousand people were killed by gun violence in 2021 -- an increase from the record number set in 2020, when homicides spiked by roughly thirty per cent from the previous year, the largest single-year jump since the F.B.I. began publishing the numbers in the nineteen-sixties.

As has been true for decades, the vast majority of those killed were young men of color living in low-income communities, but Americans are also dying in confrontations over parking spaces, or because of something they wrote on social media. Bystanders, many of them children, are being killed or injured in rising numbers, too.

[...] On Monday, Adams, a centrist Democrat who campaigned on a promise to reduce crime, unveiled a “Blueprint to End Gun Violence” that includes the revamping of anti-crime police units that Mayor Bill de Blasio’s Administration had disbanded in 2020, after weeks of protests against police brutality following the killing of George Floyd, in Minneapolis.

Progressives immediately criticized Adams for bringing back the units, which had been criticized for employing heavy-handed tactics in communities of color, predicting that the move would increase tensions between those communities and the police. Adams also called for changes in state laws surrounding bail for defendants who are considered dangerous and the minimum age that someone can be charged as an adult.

Adams, in a local television interview on Tuesday, dismissed the criticisms from progressives and said that he had promised voters that he would crack down on illegal guns. “The people of this city elected me mayor,” he said. “What I believe has happened in this city and country is that the social media savvy, the loudest, that body, has really hijacked the narrative. People want to be safe and they don’t believe people who carry guns should be returned to our streets.”

Democratic mayors across the country—and the Biden Administration—are also announcing new strategies...

[...] Republican elected officials describe the country as lawless under Biden and big-city Democratic mayors -- and mostly scoff at such measures. Efforts to “defund” police departments have largely stalled, but conservatives continue to highlight the issue as evidence that Democrats are soft on crime. Some far-right-backed lawmakers in Republican-controlled states are going further, refusing to participate in federal efforts to track illegal guns used in crimes.

[...] crime appears to be a growing political vulnerability for the White House. A December poll by ABC News and Ipsos found confidence in Biden’s handling of crime declining, with only thirty-six per cent of those polled approving, a drop from forty-three per cent in October. Approval of his handling of gun violence was even lower: thirty-two per cent, down from thirty-nine per cent in October. Only one in four Independents said that they supported Biden’s response to gun violence.

A Justice Department official was hopeful that, as the effects of the pandemic begin to ease, some of the factors likely contributing to the increase in gun violence -- fewer criminal trials, closings of schools, and reduced access to drug treatment -- would end as well...

[...] A small number of Democratic-controlled cities -- including Dallas, Boston, and Charlotte, North Carolina -- experienced a decrease in murder rates in 2021. And, in St. Louis ... homicides fell by twenty-five per cent in 2021. Criminologists say it is too early to tell which strategies are proving effective in those cities, but last week the Washington Post reported that some approaches show promise.

Concentrating police efforts on the most active criminal groups and individuals that appear to be fuelling homicides seems to have an impact. Police departments that embrace transparency and invest significantly in efforts to improve relations with the local community also appear to gain more coöperation from the public... (MORE - missing details)
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