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The coming productivity boom?

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https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/06...vity-boom/

EXCERPTS: The productivity J-curve describes the historical pattern of initially slow productivity growth after a breakthrough technology is introduced, followed years later by a sharp takeoff...

[...] The last 15 years have been tough times for many Americans, but there are now encouraging signs of a turnaround. [...] a productivity surge that will match or surpass the boom times of the 1990s. There are three reasons that this time around the productivity J-curve will be bigger and faster than in the past.

The first is technological: the past decade has delivered an astonishing cluster of technology breakthroughs. The most important ones are in AI [...] Significant innovations have also happened in biomedical sciences and energy. [...] Moreover, major innovations have led to the steep decline in the price of solar energy and the sharp increase in its energy conversion efficiency rate with serious implications for the future of the energy sector as well as for the environment.

The costs of covid-19 have been tragic, but the pandemic has also compressed a decade’s worth of digital innovation in areas like remote work into less than a year. [...] a significant fraction of work will be done remotely, while a new class of high-skill service workers, the digital nomads, is emerging. ... Even technology skeptics like Robert Gordon are more optimistic this time. The digitization and reorganization of work has brought us to a turning point in the productivity J-curve.

The third reason to be optimistic about productivity has to do with the aggressive fiscal and monetary policy being implemented in the US...

[...] When you put these three factors together ... the ingredients are in place for a productivity boom. This will not only boost living standards directly, but also frees up resources for a more ambitious policy agenda... (MORE - details)
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