One of the participants on nsf discovered this on page 305 of a very fascinating Department of the Air Force document.
https://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/Portals/84/d...Rg4A%3d%3d
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Title: Rocket Cargo
Description: The Department of the Air Force seeks to leverage the current multi-billion dollar commercial investment to develop the largest rockets ever, and with full reusability to develop and test the capability to leverage a commercial rocket to deliver AF cargo anywhere on the Earth in less than one hour, with a 100-ton capacity. The Air Force is not investing in the commercial rocket development, but rather investing in the Science & Technology needed to interface the capability with DoD logistics needs, and extend the commercial capability to DoD-unique missions. Provides a new, faster and cheaper solution to the existing TRANSCOM Strategic Airlift mission. Enables AFSOC to perform current Rapid-Response Missions at lower cost, and meet a one-hour response requirement. Rocket Cargo uses modeling, simulation, and analysis to conduct operational analysis, verify military utility, performance, and operational cost. S&T will include novel "loadmaster" designs to quickly load/unload a rocket, rapid launch capabilities from unusual sites, characterization of potential landing surfaces and approaches to rapidly improve those surfaces, adversary detectability, new novel trajectories, and an S&T investigation of the potential ability to air drop a payload after reentry. This is not a rocket engine or launch vehicle development program. It is an S&T effort to leverage the commercial development into a novel new DoD capability.
FY 2021 Plans:
Utilize modeling, simulation, and analysis to conduct operational analysis of Rocket Cargo concepts, trajectories, and design considerations and verify military utility, performance, and operational cost. Gather operational data from on-going commercial large-scale, instrumented, reusable launch events.
FY 2022 Plans:
Mature effort in leveraging commercial space launch to create military capability in Rocket-based Cargo delivery. Complete S&T testing leveraging the current commercial prototype testing. Perform site measurements needed to integrate the capability onto DoD missions including plume-surface physics and toxicity, loads, detectability, and acoustics. Also, complete initial AFRL wind tunnel testing to assess novel trajectories needed for air-drop capability, and high-speed separation physics. Under contract and CRADA, partner with Commercial to test and demonstrate an initial one-way transport capability to an austere site. Seek to perform an early end-to-end test to fully identify the technical challenges. In addition, complete Industry outreach for loadmaster concepts including novel container designs, load/unload concepts, and testing the compatibility of AF cargo with rocket launch and space environments. Issue solicitation and award contracts.
FY 2021 to FY 2022 Increase/Decrease Statement:
FY 2022 increased compared to FY 2021 by $38.169 million. Funding increased due to planned program requirements and the development and maturation activities described above.
..........................................................................................
In particular note:
The Department of the Air Force seeks to leverage the current multi-billion dollar commercial investment to develop the largest rockets ever, and with full reusability to develop and test the capability to leverage a commercial rocket to deliver AF cargo anywhere on the Earth in less than one hour, with a 100-ton capacity.
There's really only one rocket currently under development that fits that description.
And for fiscal year 2022, this:
Under contract and CRADA, partner with Commercial to test and demonstrate an initial one-way transport capability to an austere site. Seek to perform an early end-to-end test to fully identify the technical challenges.
Meaning not only is SpaceX contracted to perform a Starship orbital refueling demonstration for nasa next year, it's being proposed in this document that the air force/space force contract for a point-to-point demonstration next year as well. Looks like interest is growing in what these Starships can potentially do and the Boca Chica order book is starting to expand. It isn't just the HLS contract that has gotten all the media attention (and is being appealed by Blue Origin). (And notably both the orbital refueling and P-to-P demonstrations are penciled in to happen before Blue Origin's new Glenn rocket even flies.)
So the pressure is on SpaceX to move Starship development as quickly as they can. Which might explain the new emphasis on building out the orbital launch complex and the apparent decision not to refly Sn15 and perhaps to scrap Sn16 before it ever flies. They seem to have decided to power on straight to orbital. Rumor is that Elon is currently on site at Starbase and they are formulating new plans as we speak.
Landing a P-t0-P Starship from what presumably will be a fractional-orbit trajectory will demand that reentry and survival of the vehicle already be reasonably perfected. Orbital refueling is easier since there's no requirement that the tanker or the vehicle being refueled land afterwards. So I would expect a rapid launch cadence of orbital launches early next year and maybe even later this year to perfect the heat shield etc.
https://www.saffm.hq.af.mil/Portals/84/d...Rg4A%3d%3d
..............................................................................
Title: Rocket Cargo
Description: The Department of the Air Force seeks to leverage the current multi-billion dollar commercial investment to develop the largest rockets ever, and with full reusability to develop and test the capability to leverage a commercial rocket to deliver AF cargo anywhere on the Earth in less than one hour, with a 100-ton capacity. The Air Force is not investing in the commercial rocket development, but rather investing in the Science & Technology needed to interface the capability with DoD logistics needs, and extend the commercial capability to DoD-unique missions. Provides a new, faster and cheaper solution to the existing TRANSCOM Strategic Airlift mission. Enables AFSOC to perform current Rapid-Response Missions at lower cost, and meet a one-hour response requirement. Rocket Cargo uses modeling, simulation, and analysis to conduct operational analysis, verify military utility, performance, and operational cost. S&T will include novel "loadmaster" designs to quickly load/unload a rocket, rapid launch capabilities from unusual sites, characterization of potential landing surfaces and approaches to rapidly improve those surfaces, adversary detectability, new novel trajectories, and an S&T investigation of the potential ability to air drop a payload after reentry. This is not a rocket engine or launch vehicle development program. It is an S&T effort to leverage the commercial development into a novel new DoD capability.
FY 2021 Plans:
Utilize modeling, simulation, and analysis to conduct operational analysis of Rocket Cargo concepts, trajectories, and design considerations and verify military utility, performance, and operational cost. Gather operational data from on-going commercial large-scale, instrumented, reusable launch events.
FY 2022 Plans:
Mature effort in leveraging commercial space launch to create military capability in Rocket-based Cargo delivery. Complete S&T testing leveraging the current commercial prototype testing. Perform site measurements needed to integrate the capability onto DoD missions including plume-surface physics and toxicity, loads, detectability, and acoustics. Also, complete initial AFRL wind tunnel testing to assess novel trajectories needed for air-drop capability, and high-speed separation physics. Under contract and CRADA, partner with Commercial to test and demonstrate an initial one-way transport capability to an austere site. Seek to perform an early end-to-end test to fully identify the technical challenges. In addition, complete Industry outreach for loadmaster concepts including novel container designs, load/unload concepts, and testing the compatibility of AF cargo with rocket launch and space environments. Issue solicitation and award contracts.
FY 2021 to FY 2022 Increase/Decrease Statement:
FY 2022 increased compared to FY 2021 by $38.169 million. Funding increased due to planned program requirements and the development and maturation activities described above.
..........................................................................................
In particular note:
The Department of the Air Force seeks to leverage the current multi-billion dollar commercial investment to develop the largest rockets ever, and with full reusability to develop and test the capability to leverage a commercial rocket to deliver AF cargo anywhere on the Earth in less than one hour, with a 100-ton capacity.
There's really only one rocket currently under development that fits that description.
And for fiscal year 2022, this:
Under contract and CRADA, partner with Commercial to test and demonstrate an initial one-way transport capability to an austere site. Seek to perform an early end-to-end test to fully identify the technical challenges.
Meaning not only is SpaceX contracted to perform a Starship orbital refueling demonstration for nasa next year, it's being proposed in this document that the air force/space force contract for a point-to-point demonstration next year as well. Looks like interest is growing in what these Starships can potentially do and the Boca Chica order book is starting to expand. It isn't just the HLS contract that has gotten all the media attention (and is being appealed by Blue Origin). (And notably both the orbital refueling and P-to-P demonstrations are penciled in to happen before Blue Origin's new Glenn rocket even flies.)
So the pressure is on SpaceX to move Starship development as quickly as they can. Which might explain the new emphasis on building out the orbital launch complex and the apparent decision not to refly Sn15 and perhaps to scrap Sn16 before it ever flies. They seem to have decided to power on straight to orbital. Rumor is that Elon is currently on site at Starbase and they are formulating new plans as we speak.
Landing a P-t0-P Starship from what presumably will be a fractional-orbit trajectory will demand that reentry and survival of the vehicle already be reasonably perfected. Orbital refueling is easier since there's no requirement that the tanker or the vehicle being refueled land afterwards. So I would expect a rapid launch cadence of orbital launches early next year and maybe even later this year to perfect the heat shield etc.