(Nov 19, 2020 10:41 PM)Leigha Wrote: Are lock downs coming to your town, anyone? Florida’s trying to fight it. Think it’ll be hard to get the horse back into this barn.
IF everybody just hunkered down for (say) four weeks the virus thing would be pretty much over and done with. In reality people won't accept the restrictions and instead of local businesses getting a boost in four weeks Amazon are having a field day.
So, like our politicians, consider the option of letting the virus do what it does naturally - an exponential rise in infections. Syne happily quotes Sweden as an example of a country with relatively few restrictions - the odd thing about Sweden is that 40% of adults live alone - many infected adults doesn't go home and infect more people because there's no people there to infect - this takes the replication rate from above 1 to about 1 and the virus hasn't spread in Sweden in the way seen in most other countries.
The 'fact' (fake or real - who can tell) that black people are more likely to die adds an additional moral and political dilemma.
The death rate seems to be about 2% so with (say) 150 million Americans infected that would be 3 million deaths - are ppl ok with that? If you think the 2% is too high try for a reasonable guess and convert it to dead Americans - is the number you come up with acceptable? Like at 1% death rate 1.5 million die in return for the benefits to the economy - is this acceptable?
(Nov 20, 2020 09:40 AM)confused2 Wrote: The death rate seems to be about 2% so with (say) 150 million Americans infected that would be 3 million deaths - are ppl ok with that? If you think the 2% is too high try for a reasonable guess and convert it to dead Americans - is the number you come up with acceptable? Like at 1% death rate 1.5 million die in return for the benefits to the economy - is this acceptable?
Judging by activity here, people seem willing to take the risk of social gatherings. Whether they’re young and don’t fear the virus as much or not in an old age facility, reports of such large groups are daily.
(Nov 20, 2020 02:49 PM)Leigha Wrote: Off all next week for Thanksgiving! I’m going to use part of it to do some delayed spring cleaning.
Don’t forget Black* Friday!
* am I allowed to say that?
I prefer Cyber Monday but due to the increase of a Covid cases and new warnings out about avoiding congregating etc - how will the stores manage Black Friday this year?
(Nov 20, 2020 02:49 PM)Leigha Wrote: Off all next week for Thanksgiving! I’m going to use part of it to do some delayed spring cleaning.
Don’t forget Black* Friday!
* am I allowed to say that?
I prefer Cyber Monday but due to the increase of a Covid cases and new warnings out about avoiding congregating etc - how will the stores manage Black Friday this year?
Stores will open regardless I think. You have to fight in Aisle 3 as usual but wear a mask. If they want a lot of shoppers then sell toilet paper at markdown prices. I really don't care because I'm not a shopper. When I am forced to finally go shopping it's quick......I get what I want and leave.
If I overpay then c'est la vie. Are you the type of person who buys something at X then finds it cheaper at Y and follows that up by going through the proper retail processes? When you buy a house and find a similar house that was much cheaper do you fret over it?
(Nov 20, 2020 08:38 AM)confused2 Wrote: IF everybody just hunkered down for (say) four weeks the virus thing would be pretty much over and done with. In reality people won't accept the restrictions and instead of local businesses getting a boost in four weeks Amazon are having a field day.
So...why didn't the previous lock downs work? If, as you say, "the virus thing would be pretty much over and done with" after a lock down, why didn't the last one do the trick? There's really not much incentive to be honest when you will believe the same lie over and over again. How many lock downs would it take to convince you they don't work? Is it falsifiable at all or just a matter of faith for you?
(Nov 20, 2020 09:40 AM)confused2 Wrote: The death rate seems to be about 2% so with (say) 150 million Americans infected that would be 3 million deaths - are ppl ok with that? If you think the 2% is too high try for a reasonable guess and convert it to dead Americans - is the number you come up with acceptable? Like at 1% death rate 1.5 million die in return for the benefits to the economy - is this acceptable?
How are you getting from 12 million to 150 million infections? Why are you presuming the death rate will stay static with the average so far? The death rate compared to infections has already improved dramatically.
You seem incapable of understanding the death toll from shutting down economies alone. The substance abuse, suicide, neglect of needed healthcare, etc. could cause more deaths, at least in terms of shortened lifespans, than Covid. Covid largely takes people likely to die within the year anyway. Whatever the Covid death count ends up being, we don't want our policies to have added to that number. Maybe you're on the dole or retirement (fixed income) and don't understand the toll it takes on others.
Quote:The substance abuse, suicide, neglect of needed healthcare, etc. could cause more deaths, at least in terms of shortened lifespans, than Covid. Covid largely takes people likely to die within the year anyway. Whatever the Covid death count ends up being, we don't want our policies to have added to that number.
Instead of marshmallows it was me who got roasted for saying that at a campfire held this past summer. I think there's definitely been or going to be collateral damage. Historically speaking, Is this virus one of the worst of all time?
The last thing the govt wants is to be held responsible for someone's death or lose the trust of the voter. Is there a right policy? Once this is over and the facts are analyzed it's sure bring about lawsuits and change in preparedness for the next one.
Not surprised to read about people who deny the disease because of a govt conspiracy and then die of it. Wait till we get the vaccines rolled out, anti-vaxxers will refuse and some will either die, cause another person's death and for some people it won't work at all.
Syne Wrote:How are you getting from 12 million to 150 million infections?
Actually no reason to for the infection rate to slow down before around 80% of the community is infected and herd immunity starts to kick in. As you can see from the graph the exponential curve rises faster and faster with time as there are more people to infect more people.
The bacteria's [virus] growth [in America] over time can be graphed like the red line on this graph [below]:
This is called "exponential" growth. Many people have trouble understanding exponential growth, because we're used to things growing "linearly" -- the same amount from one day to the next, like hair or grass or fingernails.
We expect the bottle to fill with bacteria as if we were filling it with water from a faucet. But any time living things are allowed to reproduce freely, their numbers increase exponentially, not linearly. And when people talk about "steady growth," they mean exponential growth then, too.
Quote:Why are you presuming the death rate will stay static with the average so far?
I didn't - I assumed the death rate dropped to 1%. It seems unlikely that the death rate will drop to zero so I'm suggesting you propose a death rate and a likely number of infected Americans and this will be your figure for a tolerable number of deaths. All governments have to go through this process - if you think a government has got the figures and/or acceptable deaths wrong then at least give a number for what you regard as an acceptable number of deaths.
Syne Wrote:we don't want our policies to have added to that number.
We're back to numbers, acceptable deaths, costs and so on which it seems you neither know about nor care about and for that reason I tend to dismiss you as an ignorant commentator.
Nov 20, 2020 08:38 AM
but due to the increase of a Covid cases and new warnings out about avoiding congregating etc - how will the stores manage Black Friday this year?
![[Image: bacteria_expobacteria.gif]](https://www.worldpopulationbalance.org/images/bacteria/bacteria_expobacteria.gif)