Jan 5, 2021 04:22 AM
(This post was last modified: Jan 5, 2021 09:02 PM by C C.)
The biggest technology failures of 2020
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12...ures-2020/
INTRO: This was a year we needed technology to save us. A pandemic raced over the land, there were wildfires, uneasy political divisions, and we gasped in the miasma of social media. In 2020, the ways in which technology can help or hurt never seemed clearer.
In the success column we have covid-19 vaccines. But this article is not about successes. Instead, this is our annual list of the worst technology flops and failures. Our tally for 2020 includes billion-dollar digital business plans that faceplanted, covid tests that bombed, and the unforeseen consequences of wrapping the planet in cheap satellites... (MORE)
COVERED: Covid tests ..... Unregulated facial recognition ..... Quibi’s quick collapse ..... Mystery microwave weapon ..... #zoomdick ..... Light pollution from satellite megaconstellations ..... The vaccine that make you test positive for HIV ..... Cyberpunk 2077 ..... Hydroxychloroquine, the covid drug that never worked (UPDATE)
Where are the drone deliveries & self-driving cars? The problem with tech predictions
https://readwrite.com/2021/01/04/problem...edictions/
EXCERPTS: As early as 2010, journalists have been predicting that self-driving cars were about to “take over the world,” or some variation of that phrase. [...] Since then, there’s been a rotating series of claims that “the year of the self-driving car” would be 2013. Then 2014. Then 2015. And so on.
And of course, self-driving cars aren’t the only example of a technology being heralded a bit too much and a bit too early. We’ve also heard about the limitless potential of drone delivery—for the last five years or so, despite little progress actually being made. We hear about how smart homes are about to replace traditional homes entirely. And every once in a while, we hear about a promising new breakthrough in a technology that has the power to connect our brains directly to the internet.
[...] So why is it that so many bold technology predictions turn out to be overly ambitious? ... Turns out, there are several factors intersecting to produce this effect.
“Me First” Marketing. [...] In the tech world, it’s not enough to make a great new technology -- it pays to be first. If you’re the first company to achieve success in a new area of tech, you’ll instantly achieve a permanent advantage over your competitors. [...] Because of this competitive pressure, companies are inclined to overstate their progress. A corporate representative might imply that their self-driving cars are almost ready to go, when in reality they may need a few more years of refinement; but getting to say “we’re close” gives you an edge over your competitors.
The Sensationalism of Modern Journalism. Next [...] media publications are highly likely to publish a story that claims some kind of futuristic technology is almost here -- even if that’s far from the truth. There are no real repercussions to posting a story .... because it will be forgotten quickly ... There’s also an illusion that occurs ... survivorship bias. For example, let’s say five publishers produce stories on a new technology; three of them boldly claim that it’s nearly here, while the other two are more modest in their reporting. The three bold claimers get a ton of comments, likes, and shares, and their headlines are seen all over social media. The two modest claimers get buried. To the casual observer, it seems like every story you see is sensationalist and overblownn -- when in reality, 40 percent of stories are accurate, despite going unseen.
Slow Adaptation and Adoption. Tech accessibility depends on acceptance and adoption. Consumers must fully buy into a technology for it to begin circulating, and in many cases, government regulators and politicians have to be on board as well. Society can be slow to adapt; many technologies are risky, intimidating, or simply hard to understand. And some people don’t like change in general. If politicians or consumers make it difficult, even a fully polished new technology can remain in tech purgatory for years.
Unforeseeable Developmental Issues. Of course, some technologies end up stagnating because of unforeseen developmental issues. There’s a critical hurdle that can’t be easily overcome, like a safety issue that hasn’t been resolved, or a lack of viable power...
The Death of Moore’s Law. [...] Innovation has slowed. Our progress isn’t nearly as fast as it used to be, we fail more frequently and we’re coming up on some major physical barriers—limits to the paths of growth we’ve relied on for decades. It’s getting harder and harder to innovate, but at the same time, we expect lightning-fast innovation...
Consumer Hype. We also need to acknowledge the role of consumer hype in this equation. Consumers tend to be crazy about new technology, overestimating its utility and overvaluing the companies creating those technologies. ... they’re constantly hungry for optimistic news. So why not give it to them?
The Retrospective Effect. [...] Usually, when a new technology is introduced, it’s clunky, ineffective, and/or inaccessible to the broader public. Over time, it gradually evolves, inching its way into our daily lives. Only years later does it become fully integrated, at which point we falsely remember using that technology for years... Voice search, for example, has been around since 2011, but ... It wasn’t until 2016 or so that it truly became a .... universally used tool... (MORE - details)
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12...ures-2020/
INTRO: This was a year we needed technology to save us. A pandemic raced over the land, there were wildfires, uneasy political divisions, and we gasped in the miasma of social media. In 2020, the ways in which technology can help or hurt never seemed clearer.
In the success column we have covid-19 vaccines. But this article is not about successes. Instead, this is our annual list of the worst technology flops and failures. Our tally for 2020 includes billion-dollar digital business plans that faceplanted, covid tests that bombed, and the unforeseen consequences of wrapping the planet in cheap satellites... (MORE)
COVERED: Covid tests ..... Unregulated facial recognition ..... Quibi’s quick collapse ..... Mystery microwave weapon ..... #zoomdick ..... Light pollution from satellite megaconstellations ..... The vaccine that make you test positive for HIV ..... Cyberpunk 2077 ..... Hydroxychloroquine, the covid drug that never worked (UPDATE)
Where are the drone deliveries & self-driving cars? The problem with tech predictions
https://readwrite.com/2021/01/04/problem...edictions/
EXCERPTS: As early as 2010, journalists have been predicting that self-driving cars were about to “take over the world,” or some variation of that phrase. [...] Since then, there’s been a rotating series of claims that “the year of the self-driving car” would be 2013. Then 2014. Then 2015. And so on.
And of course, self-driving cars aren’t the only example of a technology being heralded a bit too much and a bit too early. We’ve also heard about the limitless potential of drone delivery—for the last five years or so, despite little progress actually being made. We hear about how smart homes are about to replace traditional homes entirely. And every once in a while, we hear about a promising new breakthrough in a technology that has the power to connect our brains directly to the internet.
[...] So why is it that so many bold technology predictions turn out to be overly ambitious? ... Turns out, there are several factors intersecting to produce this effect.
“Me First” Marketing. [...] In the tech world, it’s not enough to make a great new technology -- it pays to be first. If you’re the first company to achieve success in a new area of tech, you’ll instantly achieve a permanent advantage over your competitors. [...] Because of this competitive pressure, companies are inclined to overstate their progress. A corporate representative might imply that their self-driving cars are almost ready to go, when in reality they may need a few more years of refinement; but getting to say “we’re close” gives you an edge over your competitors.
The Sensationalism of Modern Journalism. Next [...] media publications are highly likely to publish a story that claims some kind of futuristic technology is almost here -- even if that’s far from the truth. There are no real repercussions to posting a story .... because it will be forgotten quickly ... There’s also an illusion that occurs ... survivorship bias. For example, let’s say five publishers produce stories on a new technology; three of them boldly claim that it’s nearly here, while the other two are more modest in their reporting. The three bold claimers get a ton of comments, likes, and shares, and their headlines are seen all over social media. The two modest claimers get buried. To the casual observer, it seems like every story you see is sensationalist and overblownn -- when in reality, 40 percent of stories are accurate, despite going unseen.
Slow Adaptation and Adoption. Tech accessibility depends on acceptance and adoption. Consumers must fully buy into a technology for it to begin circulating, and in many cases, government regulators and politicians have to be on board as well. Society can be slow to adapt; many technologies are risky, intimidating, or simply hard to understand. And some people don’t like change in general. If politicians or consumers make it difficult, even a fully polished new technology can remain in tech purgatory for years.
Unforeseeable Developmental Issues. Of course, some technologies end up stagnating because of unforeseen developmental issues. There’s a critical hurdle that can’t be easily overcome, like a safety issue that hasn’t been resolved, or a lack of viable power...
The Death of Moore’s Law. [...] Innovation has slowed. Our progress isn’t nearly as fast as it used to be, we fail more frequently and we’re coming up on some major physical barriers—limits to the paths of growth we’ve relied on for decades. It’s getting harder and harder to innovate, but at the same time, we expect lightning-fast innovation...
Consumer Hype. We also need to acknowledge the role of consumer hype in this equation. Consumers tend to be crazy about new technology, overestimating its utility and overvaluing the companies creating those technologies. ... they’re constantly hungry for optimistic news. So why not give it to them?
The Retrospective Effect. [...] Usually, when a new technology is introduced, it’s clunky, ineffective, and/or inaccessible to the broader public. Over time, it gradually evolves, inching its way into our daily lives. Only years later does it become fully integrated, at which point we falsely remember using that technology for years... Voice search, for example, has been around since 2011, but ... It wasn’t until 2016 or so that it truly became a .... universally used tool... (MORE - details)
