Global climate forecast for 2050

[Syne]

So you're just going to ignore that actual harm of losing 80% of the energy/products we use for global shipping (supply chain) and agriculture (feeding people). Pie-in-the-sky callousness.

[Magical Realist]

https://epic.uchicago.edu/news/climate-c...tudy-says/

[Syne]

https://epic.uchicago.edu/news/climate-c...tudy-says/

If you actually read what you cited, you'd know this paper was retracted.

The authors have retracted this paper for the following reasons: post-publication, the results were found to be sensitive to the removal of one country, Uzbekistan, where inaccuracies were noted in the underlying economic data for the period 1995–1999. Furthermore, spatial auto-correlation was argued to be relevant for the uncertainty ranges. The authors corrected the data from Uzbekistan for 1995–1999 and controlled for data source transitions and higher-order trends as present in the Uzbekistan data. They also accounted for spatial auto-correlation. These changes led to discrepancies in the estimates for climate damages by mid-century, with an increased uncertainty range (from 11–29% to 6–31%) and a lower probability of damages diverging across emission scenarios by 2050 (from 99% to 90%).
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07219-0 (original paper)
- https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09726-0 (retraction note, quoted above)

[Magical Realist]

So you're saying there will be no economic effects of global climate change?

https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R47063

"Summary

There is general consensus within the scientific community that human activities have increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and that the increased concentrations have contributed to a rise in global average temperatures. The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently assessed, "Overall adverse economic impacts attributable to climate change, including slow-onset and extreme weather events, have been increasingly identified."

Two of the main avenues through which climate change can affect GDP in the short and long terms are productivity and investment effects. Productivity is a key determinant in long-term economic growth—as productivity increases, economies can produce more goods and services with the same level of resources, which in turn tends to increase well-being and income. Business investment is also a determinant of long-term growth insofar as it contributes to the domestic capital stock, which is directly related to the economy's overall productive capacity. Research suggests that climate change could negatively impact productivity and business investment, as rising temperatures and heat waves could result in lower output per worker. Declines in productivity and production could decrease businesses' incentive to invest, particularly in a scenario in which physical capital is routinely damaged or destroyed due to the effects of extreme weather events to a point where further investment becomes unattractive. Climate change can also bring some benefits (such as fewer extreme cold events) and opportunities (opening of Arctic shipping lanes), although the net effects of climate change on the economy are generally expected to be increasingly adverse and widespread on net.

Climate change—notably the projected increase in certain extreme weather events—is also expected to affect the overall economy through its impacts on specific sectors, such as housing, infrastructure, and agriculture. Nearly one-third of the U.S. housing stock could be at high risk of climate-change-induced hazards, and billions of dollars of property are vulnerable to complete destruction or being rendered unusable by flooding risk alone. Transportation infrastructure, which supports the production and movement of goods and services, could be damaged with climate change. While transportation systems are typically designed to withstand certain magnitudes of extreme weather events, an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events would increase the residual risk. Heat waves, heavy precipitation, and other storms can additionally cause delays and disruptions on roads, public transit systems, airports, and the like, adding to the costs of production and interfering with consumption.

There are several considerations to take into account when analyzing research on the economic effects of climate change. One is that economic projection is an imprecise science and entails a degree of uncertainty, and uncertainty may increase over long time horizons. This research becomes more complicated when based on climate modeling results, which are often based on scenarios that may or may not be associated with likelihoods of occurrence or reflect future conditions. Additionally, there is no consensus on the best way to model the economic effects of climate change. Several different methodologies and types of modeling are used to estimate the impacts of various climate change scenarios on economic indicators such as GDP and personal income. Differing methods can make it difficult to compare results across studies. Currently, this field of study into the economic effects of climate change is relatively small compared to other types of economic or climate-related research. The relative dearth of studies makes it challenging to reach specific "mainstream" conclusions about economic impacts. Nonetheless, the large majority of existing studies tend to find that climate change impacts to longer-term economic output—either economy-wide or in impacted sectors—is likely to be negative and increasingly so, although the magnitude of these effects is not widely agreed upon."

[Syne]

So you're saying there will be no economic effects of global climate change?

Where do you think you read that?
Literacy is amazing!

[confused2]

"So you're saying there will be no economic effects of global climate change?"
Even a half-literate person would normally respond with something like:
"Yes.. " or "No.. " or "I don't have enough information.."
It's quite simple once you get the hang of it.