May 4, 2026 05:15 PM
https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/amoc-w...we-thought
EXCERPTS: A major ocean current system that helps regulate climate across the Northern Hemisphere is likely to weaken far more severely by the end of this century than scientists previously estimated, according to new research published in Science Advances.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a vast system of currents that transports warm water from the tropics northward, releasing heat into the atmosphere before sinking and returning south.
[...] Beyond the US, a weakening is projected to shift the tropical rain belt southward, threatening the monsoons that hundreds of millions of people in West Africa and South Asia depend on for agriculture.
In Europe, such changes are projected to bring colder, harsher winters as the conveyor belt of warm water to the continent slows.
More concerning still is that each additional weakening pushes the system closer to a tipping point – where a full collapse becomes increasingly likely, with consequences that could be catastrophic.
[...] In the new study, the team identified two specific, systematic errors running through many of the best modelling efforts made so far: they simulate the South Atlantic as not salty enough and the North Atlantic as too cold.
Both biases cause the models to underestimate a key process, in which dense, salty water sinks and helps keep the entire current system flowing.
After correcting for both using a statistical technique called ridge-regularised linear regression – rarely used in climate science – the projected weakening rose to 51 per cent, while significantly decreasing the uncertainty associated with the result... (MORE - missing details)
EXCERPTS: A major ocean current system that helps regulate climate across the Northern Hemisphere is likely to weaken far more severely by the end of this century than scientists previously estimated, according to new research published in Science Advances.
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a vast system of currents that transports warm water from the tropics northward, releasing heat into the atmosphere before sinking and returning south.
[...] Beyond the US, a weakening is projected to shift the tropical rain belt southward, threatening the monsoons that hundreds of millions of people in West Africa and South Asia depend on for agriculture.
In Europe, such changes are projected to bring colder, harsher winters as the conveyor belt of warm water to the continent slows.
More concerning still is that each additional weakening pushes the system closer to a tipping point – where a full collapse becomes increasingly likely, with consequences that could be catastrophic.
[...] In the new study, the team identified two specific, systematic errors running through many of the best modelling efforts made so far: they simulate the South Atlantic as not salty enough and the North Atlantic as too cold.
Both biases cause the models to underestimate a key process, in which dense, salty water sinks and helps keep the entire current system flowing.
After correcting for both using a statistical technique called ridge-regularised linear regression – rarely used in climate science – the projected weakening rose to 51 per cent, while significantly decreasing the uncertainty associated with the result... (MORE - missing details)
