Article  Next massive volcano eruption will cause climate chaos — and we are unprepared

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https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-03680-z

INTRO: Cataclysmic volcanic eruptions are rare — but inevitable. Governments should not only work to stem global warming, but also prepare for other extreme events with a planet-wide impact. The 1815 massive eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia should ring alarm bells. Imagine if this happened today.

Around 90,000 people on Sumbawa Island and neighbouring Lombok were killed when Mount Tambora blew. The eruption triggered waves of weather anomalies around the world, which lasted for years and affected millions more people. The Northern Hemisphere cooled by 1 °C and the subsequent year was said to lack a summer. Abnormally cold weather persisted well into 1817 across North America and Europe, resulting in meagre harvests.

A consequent doubling of grain prices led to societal unrest in countries such as France and the United Kingdom, and plunged the United States into its first economic depression. In India, erratic weather was linked to a cholera outbreak, which spread to become a global pandemic in 1817. The ripple effects of the Tambora eruption resulted in a death toll probably in the tens of millions1,2.

The Tamboran gloom has faded, and the world has been spared a volcanic eruption of similar magnitude in more than 200 years. Yet the question is not whether such a cataclysm will occur again, but when. Geological evidence from volcanic deposits over the past 60,000 years suggests a 1-in-6 probability of a massive eruption occurring this century3,4.

If that happened in the next 5 years, the costs would be colossal. In an extreme scenario, the economic impacts would cost more than US$3.6 trillion in the first year and $1.2 trillion more over subsequent years, owing to the effects of extreme weather, reduced crop yields and food instability, according to the insurance and reinsurance market Lloyd’s of London, which assessed these risks in May (see go.nature.com/4ewty2d).

Those are huge values. But they have large uncertainties attached. Scientists understand the basic mechanisms of how volcanism influences climate, but not the fine details: sulfur dioxide (SO2) is propelled into the stratosphere, where it forms sulfate aerosols that reflect incoming solar radiation and cool Earth’s surface5. The magnitude of cooling depends on the amount, vertical distribution and size of these sulfate aerosol particles6. The effects on rainfall are harder to predict, as are those on agriculture and economic markets. And all of these details will be affected by and have an influence on climate change.

To pin down these uncertainties, we call for a three-pronged approach. First, researchers should tie in models and geological evidence for past climates with historical volcanic records. Second, they should explore how volcanic cooling might interact with anthropogenic climate warming. And third, scientists, analysts and policymakers need to design strategies for minimizing the effects of a catastrophic eruption, by coupling climate, crop and food-shock models... (MORE - details)
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