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Coincidence, correlation and chance

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http://plus.maths.org/content/coincidenc...and-chance

EXCERPT: Football fans pay attention! How would you like to make hundreds, maybe even thousands, of pounds each week by betting on your favourite team, guaranteed to get the result right every time? Well, now you can. I have devised a computer program, based on complex statistical algorithms, which is 100% accurate every time ... and I am willing to sell one of a limited number of copies to you for the modest sum of £1,000.

It may seem like a lot of money, but just think, you could make it all back in a single bet. I know you'll need convincing — after all, who wants to part with a thousand pounds without some sort of guarantee — so I'll give you the first prediction for free. In fact, I'll send you one free prediction every week for the next five weeks, and when you see I'm 100% accurate I can guarantee you'll be praying there is still a copy of the program left.

Imagine you received this email from me just before the start of the football season. Would you have taken up my offer and sent me £1,000? Of course not. But what if my first prediction had been correct? Luck, you'd have thought. But what when the second and third predictions were also correct? What about when all five turned out to be correct?

At some point, surely even you would have been convinced. After all, no one's luck is that good. Is it?

So, do you take me up on my offer: yes or no?

Well, if you said yes, I'm afraid you've just thrown away £1,000. Because there is no software, no statistical method. In fact, there isn't even luck. Just quantity....
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