The puzzle of North America's record Covid hospital rate

#21
Yazata Offline
(Jan 14, 2022 04:39 PM)C C Wrote: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-59960949

EXCERPTS: Even as the Omicron variant sweeps around the world, public health officials have noted that, in most cases, the number of Covid patients in hospitals remains significantly lower than during previous pandemic surges.

That's not the case in the US, however, where the number of patients with the coronavirus currently in hospital has reached record numbers.

I don't know. But common sense suggests that if

1) Omicron is spreading rapidly through the population and is far more contageous than previous variants, and

2) Hospitals test all new admissions and count them as covid "cases" if they test positive, even if the individual was admitted for reasons totally unrelated to covid, then

We would just naturally expect numbers of "hospitalized covid cases" to spike.

I'm not going to get excited until I get better information on the number of hospital admissions because of covid compared to the number of hospital admissions with covid.
Reply
#22
confused2 Offline
Quoted by Syne:

From your post Jan 18th 2022
[ https://www.scivillage.com/thread-11575-...l#pid48564 ]

Syne's post Wrote:Up to 40% of Omicron hospital admissions are in UNVACCINATED adults, officials finally reveal after data transparency row (but they STILL won't say how many have had a booster)

Syne Wrote:If 40% of hospitalization are unvaccinated, that means 60% have at least one vaccine dose...which matches Israeli data.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...eveal.html

^^
Your bias: 60% of hospitalisations have had at least one vaccine dose.


My bias: Vaccine 31st December 88% 82% (ish) effective.


Technical briefing: Update on hospitalisation and vaccine effectiveness for Omicron VOC-21NOV-01 (B.1.1.529) 31 December 2021:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk...update.pdf

Quote:Study 2. Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection and hospitalisation (UKHSA) Vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic disease continues to be lower for Omicron than for Delta with waning by 10 weeks after dose 3, confirming findings published last week. Symptomatic cases were then linked to hospitalisation data. After 3 doses of vaccine, the risk of hospitalisation for a symptomatic case identified with Omicron through community testing was estimated to be reduced by 68% (42 to 82%) when compared to similar individuals with Omicron who were not vaccinated (after adjusting for age, gender, previous positive test, region, ethnicity, clinically extremely vulnerable status, risk group status and period). Combined with the protection against becoming a symptomatic case, this gives a vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation of 88% (78 to 93%) for Omicron after 3 doses of vaccine. Although waning is seen in the effectiveness against symptomatic disease, there is insufficient data to assess the duration of protection against hospitalisation, which is expected to last longer.
Reply
#23
C C Offline
(Jan 20, 2022 06:42 PM)Yazata Wrote:
(Jan 14, 2022 04:39 PM)C C Wrote: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-59960949

EXCERPTS: Even as the Omicron variant sweeps around the world, public health officials have noted that, in most cases, the number of Covid patients in hospitals remains significantly lower than during previous pandemic surges.

That's not the case in the US, however, where the number of patients with the coronavirus currently in hospital has reached record numbers.

I don't know. But common sense suggests that if

1) Omicron is spreading rapidly through the population and is far more contageous than previous variants, and

2) Hospitals test all new admissions and count them as covid "cases" if they test positive, even if the individual was admitted for reasons totally unrelated to covid, then

We would just naturally expect numbers of "hospitalized covid cases" to spike.

I'm not going to get excited until I get better information on the number of hospital admissions because of covid compared to the number of hospital admissions with covid.

"That's not the case in the US, however, where the number of patients with the coronavirus currently in hospital has reached record numbers."

Well, it's not just that narrow aspect, but the hospitals are supposedly being deluged overall with patients (in record-breaking numbers?) to the point of staff being worked to exhaustion and suffering a crisis of their own in that respect. Either such would be the result of COVID or there's some strange, anomalous super-spike in accidents and other ailments coincidentally occurring.

I've got an in-law who has been indulging in that "tough guy" facade of spurning masks, vaccination -- boasting about how strong his immune system is, and so forth. Now he's finally got it (tested positive using a kit his wife had), is experiencing difficult breathing, severe headaches, slash other problems. And is chickening out of his so-called "principles" now that the consequences for them have arisen. (Potentially adding to the congestion of patients if he does succeed in getting an appointment -- delaying or depriving somebody else with a traditional medical concern.) Hubby told him point-blank over the phone what little it took it to abruptly turn him into a qv55i.

In contrast, another hard-headed one with diabetes and heart condition stayed adamantly away from "proper" help and took ivermectin. He's still among the living, but the presence of the infection won't go away. He keeps testing positive after I don't know how many weeks. His wife, OTOH, is over hers and cleared, minus taking any home or rogue remedy (not sure about her being unassisted, though -- she could have gone to a doctor).
Reply
#24
Syne Offline
(Jan 20, 2022 07:43 PM)confused2 Wrote: Quoted by Syne:

From your post Jan 18th 2022
[ https://www.scivillage.com/thread-11575-...l#pid48564 ]

Syne's post Wrote:Up to 40% of Omicron hospital admissions are in UNVACCINATED adults, officials finally reveal after data transparency row (but they STILL won't say how many have had a booster)

Syne Wrote:If 40% of hospitalization are unvaccinated, that means 60% have at least one vaccine dose...which matches Israeli data.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...eveal.html

^^
Your bias: 60% of hospitalisations have had at least one vaccine dose.
That's not a bias. That's literally the only conclusion that can be drawn from that data. Otherwise, do share how only 40% unvaxxed hospitalizations somehow leave a remainder less than 60%. Is there such a thing as "half-vaxxed," where some people have less than one dose?

Quote:My bias: Vaccine 31st December 82% (ish) effective.


Technical briefing: Update on hospitalisation and vaccine effectiveness for Omicron VOC-21NOV-01 (B.1.1.529) 31 December 2021:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk...update.pdf

Quote:Study 2. Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection and hospitalisation (UKHSA) Vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic disease continues to be lower for Omicron than for Delta with waning by 10 weeks after dose 3, confirming findings published last week. Symptomatic cases were then linked to hospitalisation data. After 3 doses of vaccine, the risk of hospitalisation for a symptomatic case identified with Omicron through community testing was estimated to be reduced by 68% (42 to 82%) when compared to similar individuals with Omicron who were not vaccinated (after adjusting for age, gender, previous positive test, region, ethnicity, clinically extremely vulnerable status, risk group status and period). Combined with the protection against becoming a symptomatic case, this gives a vaccine effectiveness against hospitalisation of 88% (78 to 93%) for Omicron after 3 doses of vaccine. Although waning is seen in the effectiveness against symptomatic disease, there is insufficient data to assess the duration of protection against hospitalisation, which is expected to last longer.

Yes, "effectiveness against symptomatic infection and hospitalisation," but they were only "excluding admissions due to injuries." IOW, if you were admitted for anything that was not classified as an "injury" and tested positive for COV, you were deemed a COV hospitalization, even if your admission still had little to do with COV. This presumes that all non-injury admissions that test positive are due to COV, including things like acute asthma attacks, complications from unrelated diseases or cancer, reactions to medications, etc..

So you tell me. Does that pad the numbers any?
Reply
#25
confused2 Offline
Syne Wrote:So you tell me. Does that pad the numbers any?

Suppose of 1000 people 88 have omicron and are admitted to hospital:

If (say) 22 would have been admitted anyway then there are only 66 admissions as a direct result of covid.

If (say) 44 would have been admitted anyway then there are only 44 admissions as a direct result of covid.

If (say) 66 would have been admitted anyway then there are only 22 admissions as a direct result of covid.

If (say) all 88 would have been admitted anyway then there are 0 admissions as a direct result of covid.
Reply
#26
Syne Offline
^^Does that possibility affect your confidence in that specific claim of vaccine efficacy?
Reply
#27
confused2 Offline
(Jan 20, 2022 11:20 PM)Syne Wrote: ^^Does that possibility affect your confidence in that specific claim of vaccine efficacy?
Yes, it increases it. The 88% efficiency includes bycatch - without better data the real efficiency is unknown.
Years ago I saw a cartoon with a girl saying "Come to bed." and a guy hammering away on a keyboard saying "I can't - someone on the internet is wrong.". I've already exceeded my three posts on a topic and that's it for this thread.
Reply
#28
Syne Offline
(Jan 21, 2022 04:12 AM)confused2 Wrote:
(Jan 20, 2022 11:20 PM)Syne Wrote: ^^Does that possibility affect your confidence in that specific claim of vaccine efficacy?
Yes, it increases it. The 88% efficiency includes bycatch - without better data the real efficiency is unknown.
Years ago I saw a cartoon with a girl saying "Come to bed." and a guy hammering away on a keyboard saying "I can't - someone on the internet is wrong.". I've already exceeded my three posts on a topic and that's it for this thread.

And that is ideology at work. Where not only does negative information just reinforce preexisting belief, but also the threat of negative information causes the ideologue to eject from the discussion.

Admitting that "the real efficiency is unknown" is effectively an admission that you don't believe your own arguments, which would be contrary to increased confidence in any rational person. Makes bailing on the discussion completely understandable. If nothing else, ignoring the discussion may help quell the cognitive dissonance.

Ta ta, C2.
Reply


Possibly Related Threads…
Thread Author Replies Views Last Post
  UK hospital patients: No differences by ethnicity in COVID-19 mortality rate? C C 0 75 May 16, 2020 08:33 PM
Last Post: C C
  USA to cut corporate tax rate by 50% RainbowUnicorn 6 593 Oct 15, 2017 10:59 PM
Last Post: Syne



Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)