https://www.scivillage.com/ Wed, 30 Sep 2026 22:08:49 +0000 MyBB https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21457.html Wed, 30 Sep 2026 21:23:45 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21457.html https://gizmodo.com/el-ninos-dreaded-kel...2000818879

INTRO: Southern California communities such as Malibu, Long Beach, and San Clemente are watching their beaches disappear. In recent years, rising sea levels have swallowed huge chunks of the coastline, threatening waterfront homes. Now, an El Niño-driven phenomenon is expected to make this situation even worse.

During El Niño, winds that normally blow east to west along the equator weaken and periodically reverse, creating westerly wind bursts that set off oceanic Kelvin waves. These massive, slow-moving pulses of warm water travel from the western Pacific Ocean east across the equator until they reach Central and South America, at which point they travel north as “coastal trapped waves” along North America’s Pacific coast.

That’s exactly what’s happening now. Meteorologists warn that the approaching warm water could reach southern California by early October and raise sea levels by up to a foot (30 centimeters).

“Tides are already running a foot or more above average thanks to the extreme marine heatwave, and additional sea level elevation may begin soon as the largest coastally trapped Kelvin wave of the El Niño-generated sequence thus far arrives in October,” Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, wrote in a blog post on Sunday... (MORE - details)]]> https://gizmodo.com/el-ninos-dreaded-kel...2000818879

INTRO: Southern California communities such as Malibu, Long Beach, and San Clemente are watching their beaches disappear. In recent years, rising sea levels have swallowed huge chunks of the coastline, threatening waterfront homes. Now, an El Niño-driven phenomenon is expected to make this situation even worse.

During El Niño, winds that normally blow east to west along the equator weaken and periodically reverse, creating westerly wind bursts that set off oceanic Kelvin waves. These massive, slow-moving pulses of warm water travel from the western Pacific Ocean east across the equator until they reach Central and South America, at which point they travel north as “coastal trapped waves” along North America’s Pacific coast.

That’s exactly what’s happening now. Meteorologists warn that the approaching warm water could reach southern California by early October and raise sea levels by up to a foot (30 centimeters).

“Tides are already running a foot or more above average thanks to the extreme marine heatwave, and additional sea level elevation may begin soon as the largest coastally trapped Kelvin wave of the El Niño-generated sequence thus far arrives in October,” Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, wrote in a blog post on Sunday... (MORE - details)]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21425.html Fri, 25 Sep 2026 16:04:44 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21425.html https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/fool-us-once

EXCERPTS: Yesterday’s New York Times featured an op-ed by David Wallace-Wells and Zeke Hausfather — a journalist and climate scientist respectively — both well-known for their commitments to climate advocacy. Normally, yet-another-apocalyptic-op-ed would not be worth commenting on, as they are a dime a dozen.

However, yesterday’s op-ed demonstrates how the new CMIP7 climate scenarios — discussed in detail here at THB — can be used to smuggle the implausibly extreme and retired RCP8.5 right back into discussions of climate science and policy. According to Hausfather, an IPCC AR7 lead author, the IPCC AR7 is going to adopt this strategy as well.

Misuse of RCP8.5 started early and snowballed from there, because no one corrected correctable missteps early on. We should not fall for this again.

The op-ed starts off well enough, asserting accurately: "Projected future warming has fallen quite a bit, and a worst-case emissions scenario known as “RCP8.5” - in which coal use would roughly quintuple by 2100 - is being phased out as implausible."

The op-ed then takes a sharp turn. Wallace-Wells and Hausfather claim: "A new round of forecasts from the climate science community is pretty alarming."

There are no new “forecasts” from the “climate science community.” The IPCC has always carefully explained that it does not forecast the future — appropriately so. It produces projections conditional on scenarios.

Further, the results of earth system model research with such conditional projections incorporating the new scenarios are still a ways off. An assessment of the “climate science community” will have to await the IPCC AR7. 

[...] "The high-end warming sometimes described as a 'worst-case scenario' remains very much on the table, too."

That last sentence is a not-so-subtle reference to the climate outcomes that emerged from the retired RCP8.5. How can it be that RCP8.5 is being “phased out” yet its implications remain ”very much on the table”?

Below I show how RCP8.5 is being brought right back into the discussion of climate science and policy via a Trojan Horse that carries a misuse of scenario extensions... (MORE - missing details)]]> https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/fool-us-once

EXCERPTS: Yesterday’s New York Times featured an op-ed by David Wallace-Wells and Zeke Hausfather — a journalist and climate scientist respectively — both well-known for their commitments to climate advocacy. Normally, yet-another-apocalyptic-op-ed would not be worth commenting on, as they are a dime a dozen.

However, yesterday’s op-ed demonstrates how the new CMIP7 climate scenarios — discussed in detail here at THB — can be used to smuggle the implausibly extreme and retired RCP8.5 right back into discussions of climate science and policy. According to Hausfather, an IPCC AR7 lead author, the IPCC AR7 is going to adopt this strategy as well.

Misuse of RCP8.5 started early and snowballed from there, because no one corrected correctable missteps early on. We should not fall for this again.

The op-ed starts off well enough, asserting accurately: "Projected future warming has fallen quite a bit, and a worst-case emissions scenario known as “RCP8.5” - in which coal use would roughly quintuple by 2100 - is being phased out as implausible."

The op-ed then takes a sharp turn. Wallace-Wells and Hausfather claim: "A new round of forecasts from the climate science community is pretty alarming."

There are no new “forecasts” from the “climate science community.” The IPCC has always carefully explained that it does not forecast the future — appropriately so. It produces projections conditional on scenarios.

Further, the results of earth system model research with such conditional projections incorporating the new scenarios are still a ways off. An assessment of the “climate science community” will have to await the IPCC AR7. 

[...] "The high-end warming sometimes described as a 'worst-case scenario' remains very much on the table, too."

That last sentence is a not-so-subtle reference to the climate outcomes that emerged from the retired RCP8.5. How can it be that RCP8.5 is being “phased out” yet its implications remain ”very much on the table”?

Below I show how RCP8.5 is being brought right back into the discussion of climate science and policy via a Trojan Horse that carries a misuse of scenario extensions... (MORE - missing details)]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21391.html Sun, 20 Sep 2026 16:13:23 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21391.html https://www.snexplores.org/article/amoc-...-weakening

EXCERPTS: One of Earth’s most vital ocean currents is rapidly weakening. The cause: global warming. A collapse of this current could send devastating ripples through the planet’s climate.

The current is known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Most scientists just call it AMOC. If it were to shut down, the consequences could be catastrophic and far-ranging. In the worst case: Earth’s warming climate could flip to a deep-freeze. Scientists refer to this scenario as a “snowball Earth.”

AMOC moves warm surface waters in the Atlantic Ocean from the tropics northward toward Europe. This water ferries with it a massive amount of heat. If that transport were to shut down, scientists say, the world might see a host of dramatic weather. Europe could experience more temperature extremes, of both chilling and heating. The Southern Hemisphere would warm even more than it is now. The North Atlantic would trigger stronger storms. The drought in Africa’s Sahel would worsen. And summer rains in Europe could sharply decrease, with devastating outcomes for farmers.

But predictions of how long AMOC will hold out have been all over the map. And it’s only in the last couple of years that scientists have been able to figure out which way the current is really trending. Their consensus: It’s not good — AMOC is weakening.

The stakes are so alarming that some scientists have proposed engineering changes to AMOC. One is building a series of dams to seal off the Bering Strait between Russia and Alaska. By cutting off the northward flow of water from the Strait into the AMOC, the current’s strength might stabilize. At least that’s what researchers claim in a report April 24 in Science Advances.

Such proposed changes are controversial. No one can be sure what unknown impacts they might trigger. And the Science Advances paper “is very much a conceptual study,” says Jelle Soons of Utrecht University in the Netherlands. By that he means it’s a clever idea — but no one yet knows how it might be achieved. And Soons should know. He’s not only a physical oceanographer but also a coauthor of that new report.

What such suggestions can do is focus attention on how serious a threat an AMOC shutdown is — and how little time remains to address it.

[...] Portmann’s team used a branch of math known as statistics to get a less fuzzy estimate. One approach helped simplify complex problems with a lot of variables, like this one. This approach is “not often used in climate science,” Portmann notes, “but is very well known in statistical science.” Called ridge-regularized linear regression, it offered the best match to the problem.

It showed the likelier outcomes were those seen in models whose predictions were more dire. They now suggest AMOC will weaken by about 51 percent (plus or minus 8 percent) by the end of the century.

“What they have shown very convincingly is that, unfortunately, the simulations with the strongest decline are the most realistic ones,” says Rahmstorf. He did not take part in that analysis.

The biggest factor in this correction came from how one factor was weighted: how salty the surface of the future South Atlantic Ocean will be. Researchers had long suspected that the saltier those surface waters would be, the weaker the AMOC would become. The new analysis now supports that link.

And measurements of these waters show they have been getting saltier. One reason is increased evaporation as the oceans have been warming. Another reason: More salty water has been leaking into the South Atlantic from the Indian Ocean as wind patterns shift.

Scientists have identified many things that impact the AMOC besides the salinity of the South Atlantic... (MORE - missing details)]]> https://www.snexplores.org/article/amoc-...-weakening

EXCERPTS: One of Earth’s most vital ocean currents is rapidly weakening. The cause: global warming. A collapse of this current could send devastating ripples through the planet’s climate.

The current is known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Most scientists just call it AMOC. If it were to shut down, the consequences could be catastrophic and far-ranging. In the worst case: Earth’s warming climate could flip to a deep-freeze. Scientists refer to this scenario as a “snowball Earth.”

AMOC moves warm surface waters in the Atlantic Ocean from the tropics northward toward Europe. This water ferries with it a massive amount of heat. If that transport were to shut down, scientists say, the world might see a host of dramatic weather. Europe could experience more temperature extremes, of both chilling and heating. The Southern Hemisphere would warm even more than it is now. The North Atlantic would trigger stronger storms. The drought in Africa’s Sahel would worsen. And summer rains in Europe could sharply decrease, with devastating outcomes for farmers.

But predictions of how long AMOC will hold out have been all over the map. And it’s only in the last couple of years that scientists have been able to figure out which way the current is really trending. Their consensus: It’s not good — AMOC is weakening.

The stakes are so alarming that some scientists have proposed engineering changes to AMOC. One is building a series of dams to seal off the Bering Strait between Russia and Alaska. By cutting off the northward flow of water from the Strait into the AMOC, the current’s strength might stabilize. At least that’s what researchers claim in a report April 24 in Science Advances.

Such proposed changes are controversial. No one can be sure what unknown impacts they might trigger. And the Science Advances paper “is very much a conceptual study,” says Jelle Soons of Utrecht University in the Netherlands. By that he means it’s a clever idea — but no one yet knows how it might be achieved. And Soons should know. He’s not only a physical oceanographer but also a coauthor of that new report.

What such suggestions can do is focus attention on how serious a threat an AMOC shutdown is — and how little time remains to address it.

[...] Portmann’s team used a branch of math known as statistics to get a less fuzzy estimate. One approach helped simplify complex problems with a lot of variables, like this one. This approach is “not often used in climate science,” Portmann notes, “but is very well known in statistical science.” Called ridge-regularized linear regression, it offered the best match to the problem.

It showed the likelier outcomes were those seen in models whose predictions were more dire. They now suggest AMOC will weaken by about 51 percent (plus or minus 8 percent) by the end of the century.

“What they have shown very convincingly is that, unfortunately, the simulations with the strongest decline are the most realistic ones,” says Rahmstorf. He did not take part in that analysis.

The biggest factor in this correction came from how one factor was weighted: how salty the surface of the future South Atlantic Ocean will be. Researchers had long suspected that the saltier those surface waters would be, the weaker the AMOC would become. The new analysis now supports that link.

And measurements of these waters show they have been getting saltier. One reason is increased evaporation as the oceans have been warming. Another reason: More salty water has been leaking into the South Atlantic from the Indian Ocean as wind patterns shift.

Scientists have identified many things that impact the AMOC besides the salinity of the South Atlantic... (MORE - missing details)]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21360.html Thu, 17 Sep 2026 14:07:22 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21360.html https://arstechnica.com/science/2026/09/...ever-seen/

EXCERPTS: Last week, the Atlantic hurricane season blew through its traditional peak—which comes around September 10—with nary a tropical wave in sight, let alone a storm or hurricane.

This is remarkable. Usually this is the time of year when sea surface temperatures reach their warmest in the tropics, and with a favorable atmosphere it should be smooth skating for tropical systems. But this year, the main region where most tropical systems develop is choked with Saharan dust and wind shear.

No one is complaining. Landfalling hurricanes are incredibly destructive for coastal areas and have the potential for considerable inland rainfall. Even storms at sea, in the Gulf of Mexico, can send energy prices skyrocketing—the last thing needed this year.

Nevertheless, the quietude is historic.

Beginning in 1944, the United States began monitoring the Atlantic basin, which includes the Gulf, Caribbean Sea, and northern Atlantic Ocean, with aircraft to detect hurricanes. Dating back to 1944, a hurricane had formed every year by September 11. The latest “first” Atlantic hurricanes came in 2002, with Gustav, and in 2013, with Humberto on this date.

Atlantic hurricane records officially go back to 1851, although older records are less reliable because observations of storms developing at sea were reliant on reports from shipping vessels. So some storms were missed. If we extend the hurricane record all the way back to 1851, every year still records at least one Atlantic hurricane. But in 1941, the first hurricane did not form until September 17. This is the date of the latest first Atlantic hurricane on record.

[...] So what’s going on out there? The short answer is that a strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean has put the kibosh on the main development region of the Atlantic this year. The El Niño anomaly this summer, nearly 3° C above baseline in the Pacific, is stronger than any observed at this time of year in the modern record. This generally produces hostile wind shear levels over the Atlantic, and that has been measured this year.

This clearly is having some benefit in the tropical Atlantic, in the form of fewer tropical systems this year. But on balance, El Niño will probably be far more disruptive than beneficial when it peaks this fall and winter, with diminished rains already impacting travel through the Panama Canal and possibly leading to poor rice harvests in Asia and famine elsewhere. (MORE - missing details)]]> https://arstechnica.com/science/2026/09/...ever-seen/

EXCERPTS: Last week, the Atlantic hurricane season blew through its traditional peak—which comes around September 10—with nary a tropical wave in sight, let alone a storm or hurricane.

This is remarkable. Usually this is the time of year when sea surface temperatures reach their warmest in the tropics, and with a favorable atmosphere it should be smooth skating for tropical systems. But this year, the main region where most tropical systems develop is choked with Saharan dust and wind shear.

No one is complaining. Landfalling hurricanes are incredibly destructive for coastal areas and have the potential for considerable inland rainfall. Even storms at sea, in the Gulf of Mexico, can send energy prices skyrocketing—the last thing needed this year.

Nevertheless, the quietude is historic.

Beginning in 1944, the United States began monitoring the Atlantic basin, which includes the Gulf, Caribbean Sea, and northern Atlantic Ocean, with aircraft to detect hurricanes. Dating back to 1944, a hurricane had formed every year by September 11. The latest “first” Atlantic hurricanes came in 2002, with Gustav, and in 2013, with Humberto on this date.

Atlantic hurricane records officially go back to 1851, although older records are less reliable because observations of storms developing at sea were reliant on reports from shipping vessels. So some storms were missed. If we extend the hurricane record all the way back to 1851, every year still records at least one Atlantic hurricane. But in 1941, the first hurricane did not form until September 17. This is the date of the latest first Atlantic hurricane on record.

[...] So what’s going on out there? The short answer is that a strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean has put the kibosh on the main development region of the Atlantic this year. The El Niño anomaly this summer, nearly 3° C above baseline in the Pacific, is stronger than any observed at this time of year in the modern record. This generally produces hostile wind shear levels over the Atlantic, and that has been measured this year.

This clearly is having some benefit in the tropical Atlantic, in the form of fewer tropical systems this year. But on balance, El Niño will probably be far more disruptive than beneficial when it peaks this fall and winter, with diminished rains already impacting travel through the Panama Canal and possibly leading to poor rice harvests in Asia and famine elsewhere. (MORE - missing details)]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21332.html Mon, 14 Sep 2026 17:32:34 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21332.html Climate policy is getting quieter, and that’s good?
- - - - - - - - - -

The negative effect of emotion in climate action
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1143839

EXCERPTS: Emotional mechanisms are frequently used to inspire good environmental behaviour. But how effective are they at inspiring actual, sustainable change? Perhaps not as much as previously believed, according to a new study from the Norwegian Univrsity of Science and Technology (NTNU) which challenged participants to put their money where their mouths are.

[...] The new research surveyed over 2,000 individuals in Norway and Poland. All participants were given 200 kroner or 20 zloty and exposed to a series of short stories, designed to trigger different types of emotions relating to the climate.

[...] The unexpected result was that the number of participants who changed their expected behaviour based on the emotional content they read, was negligible at best. “Very few, hardly any gave any more money because of the emotions they had been exposed to, as compred to people who did not read the stories. We were surprised,” admits Klöckner.

[...] That is not to say the results should be exclusively considered in a negative light. The meaning of the research is much more nuanced than ‘people don’t do what they say they’re going to do’. ... The research demonstrates that anger, compassion and hope play vital roles in helping shape people’s understanding of climate change. But, alone, they are not sufficient to produce actual measurable change. (MORE - missing details, no ads)

---

Can a warming climate put women at greater risk?
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1143846

INTRO: Unusually warm periods could have a link to an increased risk of intimate partner violence against women, according to a new IIASA-led study covering 31 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The findings highlight how rising temperatures may compound existing risks of violence, with effects varying between demographic groups.

The study, published in Global Environmental Change, brought together researchers from institutions in Austria, New Zealand, and South Africa. It draws on data from 61 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 2003 and 2024 among women aged 15 to 49 across sub-Saharan Africa. The researchers examined the relationship between unusually warm conditions and reported violence, and explored how the number and share of women affected could change by 2050 under different climate and socioeconomic scenarios.

The results indicate that unusually warm conditions increase the risk of intimate partner violence, particularly emotional and physical violence. The researchers found no clear evidence of an effect on sexual violence... (MORE - no ads)]]> Climate policy is getting quieter, and that’s good?
- - - - - - - - - -

The negative effect of emotion in climate action
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1143839

EXCERPTS: Emotional mechanisms are frequently used to inspire good environmental behaviour. But how effective are they at inspiring actual, sustainable change? Perhaps not as much as previously believed, according to a new study from the Norwegian Univrsity of Science and Technology (NTNU) which challenged participants to put their money where their mouths are.

[...] The new research surveyed over 2,000 individuals in Norway and Poland. All participants were given 200 kroner or 20 zloty and exposed to a series of short stories, designed to trigger different types of emotions relating to the climate.

[...] The unexpected result was that the number of participants who changed their expected behaviour based on the emotional content they read, was negligible at best. “Very few, hardly any gave any more money because of the emotions they had been exposed to, as compred to people who did not read the stories. We were surprised,” admits Klöckner.

[...] That is not to say the results should be exclusively considered in a negative light. The meaning of the research is much more nuanced than ‘people don’t do what they say they’re going to do’. ... The research demonstrates that anger, compassion and hope play vital roles in helping shape people’s understanding of climate change. But, alone, they are not sufficient to produce actual measurable change. (MORE - missing details, no ads)

---

Can a warming climate put women at greater risk?
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1143846

INTRO: Unusually warm periods could have a link to an increased risk of intimate partner violence against women, according to a new IIASA-led study covering 31 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The findings highlight how rising temperatures may compound existing risks of violence, with effects varying between demographic groups.

The study, published in Global Environmental Change, brought together researchers from institutions in Austria, New Zealand, and South Africa. It draws on data from 61 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 2003 and 2024 among women aged 15 to 49 across sub-Saharan Africa. The researchers examined the relationship between unusually warm conditions and reported violence, and explored how the number and share of women affected could change by 2050 under different climate and socioeconomic scenarios.

The results indicate that unusually warm conditions increase the risk of intimate partner violence, particularly emotional and physical violence. The researchers found no clear evidence of an effect on sexual violence... (MORE - no ads)]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21316.html Sat, 12 Sep 2026 05:07:22 +0000 Magical Realist]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21316.html
WASHINGTON — "We already knew it was one of the hottest summers on record in the United States, but now it’s official.

New data released Wednesday from NOAA shows summer 2026 (June to August) was, on average, the hottest summer on record for the lower 48."

https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/nation...627c20f3d4]]>
WASHINGTON — "We already knew it was one of the hottest summers on record in the United States, but now it’s official.

New data released Wednesday from NOAA shows summer 2026 (June to August) was, on average, the hottest summer on record for the lower 48."

https://www.cbs8.com/article/news/nation...627c20f3d4]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21315.html Sat, 12 Sep 2026 05:06:26 +0000 Magical Realist]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21315.html
WASHINGTON — "We already knew it was one of the hottest summers on record in the United States, but now it’s official.

New data released Wednesday from NOAA shows summer 2026 (June to August) was, on average, the hottest summer on record for the lower 48."]]>
WASHINGTON — "We already knew it was one of the hottest summers on record in the United States, but now it’s official.

New data released Wednesday from NOAA shows summer 2026 (June to August) was, on average, the hottest summer on record for the lower 48."]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21285.html Tue, 08 Sep 2026 15:48:55 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21285.html New study raises concerns about climate feedback loop as melting Arctic glaciers flush ancient methane from rocks beneath the ice
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1142474

EXCERPTS: Meltwater rivers flowing from Svalbard glaciers are carrying ancient methane from rocks beneath the ice into the open air, new research shows. The findings reveal a natural feedback loop that may worsen as the Arctic continues to get warmer. Melting glaciers can open hidden pathways for methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. Put simply, the more glaciers melt, the more methane they are likely to release.

[...] Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas. While this study focuses on Svalbard, similar methane-release pathways likely occur in other glaciated regions where ice overlies organic-rich rocks or sediments. These include large parts of the Arctic, the Himalayas and Antarctica.

Gabrielle explains that: “The amounts reported here are small compared with human-caused emissions from fossil fuels, farming and waste. But they matter because they reveal a natural feedback loop that is not confined to Svalbard, and that may grow as the Arctic warms.”

As glaciers thin and retreat, more meltwater may reach their beds. This can increase contact with fractured rock, sediment and groundwater. In some places, that may flush out more methane. However, the story is not simple. Some Svalbard glaciers are also becoming colder at their beds as they shrink. If a glacier becomes frozen to its bed, its ability to flush methane through subglacial rivers may fall.

“Our results show that future methane release will depend on both geology and glacier change,” Gabrielle says. “That makes it important to know what lies beneath the ice, not only how fast the ice is melting.” (MORE - missing details, no ads)]]> New study raises concerns about climate feedback loop as melting Arctic glaciers flush ancient methane from rocks beneath the ice
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1142474

EXCERPTS: Meltwater rivers flowing from Svalbard glaciers are carrying ancient methane from rocks beneath the ice into the open air, new research shows. The findings reveal a natural feedback loop that may worsen as the Arctic continues to get warmer. Melting glaciers can open hidden pathways for methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. Put simply, the more glaciers melt, the more methane they are likely to release.

[...] Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas. While this study focuses on Svalbard, similar methane-release pathways likely occur in other glaciated regions where ice overlies organic-rich rocks or sediments. These include large parts of the Arctic, the Himalayas and Antarctica.

Gabrielle explains that: “The amounts reported here are small compared with human-caused emissions from fossil fuels, farming and waste. But they matter because they reveal a natural feedback loop that is not confined to Svalbard, and that may grow as the Arctic warms.”

As glaciers thin and retreat, more meltwater may reach their beds. This can increase contact with fractured rock, sediment and groundwater. In some places, that may flush out more methane. However, the story is not simple. Some Svalbard glaciers are also becoming colder at their beds as they shrink. If a glacier becomes frozen to its bed, its ability to flush methane through subglacial rivers may fall.

“Our results show that future methane release will depend on both geology and glacier change,” Gabrielle says. “That makes it important to know what lies beneath the ice, not only how fast the ice is melting.” (MORE - missing details, no ads)]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21191.html Wed, 26 Aug 2026 19:20:54 +0000 Magical Realist]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21191.html

https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/st...-look-2050]]>

https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/st...-look-2050]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21177.html Tue, 25 Aug 2026 00:33:41 +0000 Yazata]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21177.html
Apparently only 32 homes have burned as of yet, but large areas are threatened. But firefighters are having some success and claim 27% containment which hopefully means they have stopped its progress into the city. Latest is that the evacuation orders/warnings have been dialed back to about 60,000 people. The Nevada National Guard is working the fire alongside regular firefighters.

National Guard helicopter

Smoke plume visible from what looks like a Reno shopping mall

Soldier manning a National Guard roadblock

]]>
Apparently only 32 homes have burned as of yet, but large areas are threatened. But firefighters are having some success and claim 27% containment which hopefully means they have stopped its progress into the city. Latest is that the evacuation orders/warnings have been dialed back to about 60,000 people. The Nevada National Guard is working the fire alongside regular firefighters.

National Guard helicopter

Smoke plume visible from what looks like a Reno shopping mall

Soldier manning a National Guard roadblock

]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21147.html Fri, 21 Aug 2026 19:39:44 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21147.html https://sheffield.ac.uk/news/rising-carb...tudy-finds

KEY POINTS: Rising carbon dioxide levels help wild savanna grasses conserve water and grow more under dry conditions, challenging a long-held scientific assumption, a new study from the University of Sheffield suggests. Experiments and observations support the conclusion that an increase in atmospheric CO2 between 1989 and 2021 has resulted in a 28 per cent increase in grass production in South Africa’s Kruger National Park. Climate modelling suggests this growth trend could continue through the 21st century, potentially altering plant competition, soil dynamics and ecosystem functions across savannas that cover a fifth of the Earth's land surface. (MORE - details)

PAPER: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-0...26-10935-4]]> https://sheffield.ac.uk/news/rising-carb...tudy-finds

KEY POINTS: Rising carbon dioxide levels help wild savanna grasses conserve water and grow more under dry conditions, challenging a long-held scientific assumption, a new study from the University of Sheffield suggests. Experiments and observations support the conclusion that an increase in atmospheric CO2 between 1989 and 2021 has resulted in a 28 per cent increase in grass production in South Africa’s Kruger National Park. Climate modelling suggests this growth trend could continue through the 21st century, potentially altering plant competition, soil dynamics and ecosystem functions across savannas that cover a fifth of the Earth's land surface. (MORE - details)

PAPER: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-0...26-10935-4]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21136.html Wed, 19 Aug 2026 22:22:16 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21136.html https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1140695

INTRO: Between 2021 and 2023, Antarctica appeared to be growing. Heavy snowfall caused parts of the continent to gain mass, leading some to question whether climate change is really causing irreversible melting. However, a new study by researchers at UC Santa Barbara and University of Washington shows that the precipitation increase was an anomaly related to extra warm tropical ocean temperatures, not part of a long-term trend.

Antarctica has been “shrinking” for decades as warm water melts ice from below and sends large chunks crashing into the ocean. Annual precipitation can’t keep up, causing a net mass loss. However, the snow that fell on East Antarctica — a vast area that contains nearly 80% of Earth’s land-bound ice — added mass faster than the ice was melting. Although mass loss continued in West Antarctica, the general trend seemed encouraging.

“Our study identifies the mechanisms responsible for this recent slowdown in melting and shows that it could be temporary,” said lead author Qinghua Ding, a professor of atmospheric and climate science at UC Santa Barbara.

“In the early 2020s, there was an exceptional amount of snowfall over parts of Antarctica. Because Antarctica is so big, it doesn’t take that much extra snow thickness to counter the loss of ice from the edges of the ice sheet, which led to the perception that the loss of ice is slowing down,” said co-author Eric Steig, a UW professor of Earth and space sciences.

The question nagging researchers was whether this would continue into the future. To answer it, they needed to trace the origins of the precipitation.

Warm air can hold more moisture than colder air, so higher latitudes could eventually see wetter conditions due to global warming. Scientists recognize that the average amount of moisture in the air will increase as global temperatures rise. Some saw the heavier snowfall as evidence that this expected trend was materializing in Antarctica.

“Warmer conditions favor storms shifting toward the poles, which could offset ice loss through snowfall,” said Ding.

But the data told a different story. Using a computational method that involves “tagging” water molecules, the researchers link the extra precipitation in Antarctica to the tropical warm pool, a warm patch of ocean in the western Pacific and eastern Indian oceans that has an outsized effect on extreme weather. Water temperature in the warm pool was notably higher than average between 2021 and 2023, which generated waves of moisture that blew toward East Antarctica.

Historical evidence shows that multi-year warming of is normal for this region. Every few decades or so, it heats up for a few years, then reverts to its average temperature. “When something changes, it is very tempting, even to scientists, to think ‘oh, there’s a new normal happening,’ but this analysis shows that’s not the case,” Steig said. “This is most likely a short-lived phenomenon.” (MORE - no ads)]]> https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1140695

INTRO: Between 2021 and 2023, Antarctica appeared to be growing. Heavy snowfall caused parts of the continent to gain mass, leading some to question whether climate change is really causing irreversible melting. However, a new study by researchers at UC Santa Barbara and University of Washington shows that the precipitation increase was an anomaly related to extra warm tropical ocean temperatures, not part of a long-term trend.

Antarctica has been “shrinking” for decades as warm water melts ice from below and sends large chunks crashing into the ocean. Annual precipitation can’t keep up, causing a net mass loss. However, the snow that fell on East Antarctica — a vast area that contains nearly 80% of Earth’s land-bound ice — added mass faster than the ice was melting. Although mass loss continued in West Antarctica, the general trend seemed encouraging.

“Our study identifies the mechanisms responsible for this recent slowdown in melting and shows that it could be temporary,” said lead author Qinghua Ding, a professor of atmospheric and climate science at UC Santa Barbara.

“In the early 2020s, there was an exceptional amount of snowfall over parts of Antarctica. Because Antarctica is so big, it doesn’t take that much extra snow thickness to counter the loss of ice from the edges of the ice sheet, which led to the perception that the loss of ice is slowing down,” said co-author Eric Steig, a UW professor of Earth and space sciences.

The question nagging researchers was whether this would continue into the future. To answer it, they needed to trace the origins of the precipitation.

Warm air can hold more moisture than colder air, so higher latitudes could eventually see wetter conditions due to global warming. Scientists recognize that the average amount of moisture in the air will increase as global temperatures rise. Some saw the heavier snowfall as evidence that this expected trend was materializing in Antarctica.

“Warmer conditions favor storms shifting toward the poles, which could offset ice loss through snowfall,” said Ding.

But the data told a different story. Using a computational method that involves “tagging” water molecules, the researchers link the extra precipitation in Antarctica to the tropical warm pool, a warm patch of ocean in the western Pacific and eastern Indian oceans that has an outsized effect on extreme weather. Water temperature in the warm pool was notably higher than average between 2021 and 2023, which generated waves of moisture that blew toward East Antarctica.

Historical evidence shows that multi-year warming of is normal for this region. Every few decades or so, it heats up for a few years, then reverts to its average temperature. “When something changes, it is very tempting, even to scientists, to think ‘oh, there’s a new normal happening,’ but this analysis shows that’s not the case,” Steig said. “This is most likely a short-lived phenomenon.” (MORE - no ads)]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21115.html Mon, 17 Aug 2026 16:39:10 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21115.html https://www.yahoo.com/news/weather-news/...00229.html

EXCERPTS: The tornadoes aren't in Kansas anymore, Toto; they're in Illinois.

On Tuesday six tornadoes tore through the Chicago area during a derecho—a huge, long-lived wind storm that some call an "inland hurricane." On the same day, several more twisters touched down across the state, bringing Illinois's tornado count for the year to 204.

That makes Illinois the most active tornado state in the U.S. in 2026 and only the second state ever to top 200 twisters in a year. The other is Texas, a state with about five times the land area of Illinois.

[...] The Midwest and Great Lakes regions have seen a significant uptick in tornadoes in the past decade. Illinois's second-busiest tornado year was 2024, when the state was hit with 142 twisters.

The U.S. overall has seen 1,292 tornadoes this year as the typical summer twister season now draws to a close. With four months left in the year, though, Borchadt believes Illinois may top Texas's all-time record of 244 tornadoes in 2015.

The shift in storms from the traditional "Tornado Alley" region, which includes Texas and Oklahoma, could be a temporary blip, Borchadt says—or not.

"It remains to be seen if this is establishing more of a long-term trend or if we're just in a three- to five-year cycle here, and it starts to calm down in a few years," he says. "It is still a reminder that even though we don't live in the plains, we can still get hit by real bad storms." (MORE - missing details)]]> https://www.yahoo.com/news/weather-news/...00229.html

EXCERPTS: The tornadoes aren't in Kansas anymore, Toto; they're in Illinois.

On Tuesday six tornadoes tore through the Chicago area during a derecho—a huge, long-lived wind storm that some call an "inland hurricane." On the same day, several more twisters touched down across the state, bringing Illinois's tornado count for the year to 204.

That makes Illinois the most active tornado state in the U.S. in 2026 and only the second state ever to top 200 twisters in a year. The other is Texas, a state with about five times the land area of Illinois.

[...] The Midwest and Great Lakes regions have seen a significant uptick in tornadoes in the past decade. Illinois's second-busiest tornado year was 2024, when the state was hit with 142 twisters.

The U.S. overall has seen 1,292 tornadoes this year as the typical summer twister season now draws to a close. With four months left in the year, though, Borchadt believes Illinois may top Texas's all-time record of 244 tornadoes in 2015.

The shift in storms from the traditional "Tornado Alley" region, which includes Texas and Oklahoma, could be a temporary blip, Borchadt says—or not.

"It remains to be seen if this is establishing more of a long-term trend or if we're just in a three- to five-year cycle here, and it starts to calm down in a few years," he says. "It is still a reminder that even though we don't live in the plains, we can still get hit by real bad storms." (MORE - missing details)]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21105.html Sun, 16 Aug 2026 00:43:04 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21105.html https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1140097

EXCERPTS: : Three factors—spectacular images, a high death toll and strong personal ties—make it more likely that the media in one country will report on a natural disaster in another, according to a study by the University of Bonn, the University of Warwick and Imperial College London, which has now been published in the journal Nature Human Behaviour.

The data also shows that droughts and flooding—two of the biggest effects of climate change—are considered particularly un-newsworthy, which could be one explanation for why many people are still underestimating the impact of the greenhouse effect.

[...] The researchers’ analysis produced three rules that appear to hold true worldwide: The media are particularly likely to report on sudden catastrophes that are accompanied by dramatic images, such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, avalanches or forest fires. Second, the more lives these events claim, the likelier it is that they will be covered in other countries.

“The third striking factor is the major role played by social connections with the country affected,” Fetzer says. “Surprisingly, this has nothing to do with geographical proximity or similarity of language. Instead, we found evidence that it’s primarily a question of strong personal ties.”

[...] How similar the two populations are at a DNA level also plays a role. In other words, the more genetic material that people in two different countries share on average, the more likely the media in one country are to cover natural disasters in the other. ... For example, some 1.5 million people emigrated to America from Ireland during the Great Famine of the mid-19th century, meaning that there are closer genetic matches between the people of Ireland and the US today than there would otherwise have been...

[...] many consequences of the greenhouse effect are seemingly having a hard time getting into the international headlines. Droughts are generally only covered by the media in the countries where they hit, for instance, and it is a similar story with floods, which likewise attract less international interest than, say, avalanches or earthquakes. “This makes it easier to ignore the consequences of global heating, at least until they arrive on our own doorsteps,” Fetzer concludes. (MORE - missing details, no ads)]]> https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1140097

EXCERPTS: : Three factors—spectacular images, a high death toll and strong personal ties—make it more likely that the media in one country will report on a natural disaster in another, according to a study by the University of Bonn, the University of Warwick and Imperial College London, which has now been published in the journal Nature Human Behaviour.

The data also shows that droughts and flooding—two of the biggest effects of climate change—are considered particularly un-newsworthy, which could be one explanation for why many people are still underestimating the impact of the greenhouse effect.

[...] The researchers’ analysis produced three rules that appear to hold true worldwide: The media are particularly likely to report on sudden catastrophes that are accompanied by dramatic images, such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, avalanches or forest fires. Second, the more lives these events claim, the likelier it is that they will be covered in other countries.

“The third striking factor is the major role played by social connections with the country affected,” Fetzer says. “Surprisingly, this has nothing to do with geographical proximity or similarity of language. Instead, we found evidence that it’s primarily a question of strong personal ties.”

[...] How similar the two populations are at a DNA level also plays a role. In other words, the more genetic material that people in two different countries share on average, the more likely the media in one country are to cover natural disasters in the other. ... For example, some 1.5 million people emigrated to America from Ireland during the Great Famine of the mid-19th century, meaning that there are closer genetic matches between the people of Ireland and the US today than there would otherwise have been...

[...] many consequences of the greenhouse effect are seemingly having a hard time getting into the international headlines. Droughts are generally only covered by the media in the countries where they hit, for instance, and it is a similar story with floods, which likewise attract less international interest than, say, avalanches or earthquakes. “This makes it easier to ignore the consequences of global heating, at least until they arrive on our own doorsteps,” Fetzer concludes. (MORE - missing details, no ads)]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21094.html Fri, 14 Aug 2026 16:43:14 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21094.html How do you squeeze climate change inside the human brain?
https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/enviro...uman-brain

TAKEAWAY: Some of the reasons that explain why many people do not seem to care about climate change include: our brain’s focus on solving today’s problems; the fact that climate change feels big and intangible; the relative slowness of the changes; and our desire to keep our lifestyle the same. Some people’s apathy can be explained by the fact that they are less emotional in general; that they are politically conservative; or that they feel powerless to stop it. Recent research shows that how we present climate data can better convey what is happening with our environment.

INTRO: The loudest alarm blaring all over the world right now is that of climate change—but the brains of many seem to have habituated to it.

Climate experts find themselves trapped in irony: they can predict disastrous consequences for the planet we live on, yet most people’s eyes glaze over when reading the resulting headlines. We keep scrolling and living our lives. Forests get broiled by apocalyptic infernos, turning our skies red and ravaging entire towns, and we keep scrolling. Summers become human barbecues, with more and more of us dying of heat, and we keep scrolling. Our world has become less hospitable and we seem apathetic to it.

Where does climate apathy come from? Researchers have attempted to answer this question using highly artificial experiments. The most promising of these studies shows us that how we present the alarming data we have can make a difference.

Because as much as climate change seems to be a problem with the outside world, it turns out to also expose the myriad of problems plaguing our inner world: the human brain... (MORE - details)]]> How do you squeeze climate change inside the human brain?
https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/enviro...uman-brain

TAKEAWAY: Some of the reasons that explain why many people do not seem to care about climate change include: our brain’s focus on solving today’s problems; the fact that climate change feels big and intangible; the relative slowness of the changes; and our desire to keep our lifestyle the same. Some people’s apathy can be explained by the fact that they are less emotional in general; that they are politically conservative; or that they feel powerless to stop it. Recent research shows that how we present climate data can better convey what is happening with our environment.

INTRO: The loudest alarm blaring all over the world right now is that of climate change—but the brains of many seem to have habituated to it.

Climate experts find themselves trapped in irony: they can predict disastrous consequences for the planet we live on, yet most people’s eyes glaze over when reading the resulting headlines. We keep scrolling and living our lives. Forests get broiled by apocalyptic infernos, turning our skies red and ravaging entire towns, and we keep scrolling. Summers become human barbecues, with more and more of us dying of heat, and we keep scrolling. Our world has become less hospitable and we seem apathetic to it.

Where does climate apathy come from? Researchers have attempted to answer this question using highly artificial experiments. The most promising of these studies shows us that how we present the alarming data we have can make a difference.

Because as much as climate change seems to be a problem with the outside world, it turns out to also expose the myriad of problems plaguing our inner world: the human brain... (MORE - details)]]>