<![CDATA[Scivillage.com Casual Discussion Science Forum

<![CDATA[Scivillage.com Casual Discussion Science Forum - Meteorology & Climatology]]> https://www.scivillage.com/ Sun, 16 Aug 2026 11:11:36 +0000 MyBB <![CDATA[Droughts and floods attract little media attention]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21105.html Sun, 16 Aug 2026 00:43:04 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21105.html https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1140097

EXCERPTS: : Three factors—spectacular images, a high death toll and strong personal ties—make it more likely that the media in one country will report on a natural disaster in another, according to a study by the University of Bonn, the University of Warwick and Imperial College London, which has now been published in the journal Nature Human Behaviour.

The data also shows that droughts and flooding—two of the biggest effects of climate change—are considered particularly un-newsworthy, which could be one explanation for why many people are still underestimating the impact of the greenhouse effect.

[...] The researchers’ analysis produced three rules that appear to hold true worldwide: The media are particularly likely to report on sudden catastrophes that are accompanied by dramatic images, such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, avalanches or forest fires. Second, the more lives these events claim, the likelier it is that they will be covered in other countries.

“The third striking factor is the major role played by social connections with the country affected,” Fetzer says. “Surprisingly, this has nothing to do with geographical proximity or similarity of language. Instead, we found evidence that it’s primarily a question of strong personal ties.”

[...] How similar the two populations are at a DNA level also plays a role. In other words, the more genetic material that people in two different countries share on average, the more likely the media in one country are to cover natural disasters in the other. ... For example, some 1.5 million people emigrated to America from Ireland during the Great Famine of the mid-19th century, meaning that there are closer genetic matches between the people of Ireland and the US today than there would otherwise have been...

[...] many consequences of the greenhouse effect are seemingly having a hard time getting into the international headlines. Droughts are generally only covered by the media in the countries where they hit, for instance, and it is a similar story with floods, which likewise attract less international interest than, say, avalanches or earthquakes. “This makes it easier to ignore the consequences of global heating, at least until they arrive on our own doorsteps,” Fetzer concludes. (MORE - missing details, no ads)]]> https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1140097

EXCERPTS: : Three factors—spectacular images, a high death toll and strong personal ties—make it more likely that the media in one country will report on a natural disaster in another, according to a study by the University of Bonn, the University of Warwick and Imperial College London, which has now been published in the journal Nature Human Behaviour.

The data also shows that droughts and flooding—two of the biggest effects of climate change—are considered particularly un-newsworthy, which could be one explanation for why many people are still underestimating the impact of the greenhouse effect.

[...] The researchers’ analysis produced three rules that appear to hold true worldwide: The media are particularly likely to report on sudden catastrophes that are accompanied by dramatic images, such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, avalanches or forest fires. Second, the more lives these events claim, the likelier it is that they will be covered in other countries.

“The third striking factor is the major role played by social connections with the country affected,” Fetzer says. “Surprisingly, this has nothing to do with geographical proximity or similarity of language. Instead, we found evidence that it’s primarily a question of strong personal ties.”

[...] How similar the two populations are at a DNA level also plays a role. In other words, the more genetic material that people in two different countries share on average, the more likely the media in one country are to cover natural disasters in the other. ... For example, some 1.5 million people emigrated to America from Ireland during the Great Famine of the mid-19th century, meaning that there are closer genetic matches between the people of Ireland and the US today than there would otherwise have been...

[...] many consequences of the greenhouse effect are seemingly having a hard time getting into the international headlines. Droughts are generally only covered by the media in the countries where they hit, for instance, and it is a similar story with floods, which likewise attract less international interest than, say, avalanches or earthquakes. “This makes it easier to ignore the consequences of global heating, at least until they arrive on our own doorsteps,” Fetzer concludes. (MORE - missing details, no ads)]]> <![CDATA[How do you squeeze climate change inside the human brain?]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21094.html Fri, 14 Aug 2026 16:43:14 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21094.html How do you squeeze climate change inside the human brain?
https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/enviro...uman-brain

TAKEAWAY: Some of the reasons that explain why many people do not seem to care about climate change include: our brain’s focus on solving today’s problems; the fact that climate change feels big and intangible; the relative slowness of the changes; and our desire to keep our lifestyle the same. Some people’s apathy can be explained by the fact that they are less emotional in general; that they are politically conservative; or that they feel powerless to stop it. Recent research shows that how we present climate data can better convey what is happening with our environment.

INTRO: The loudest alarm blaring all over the world right now is that of climate change—but the brains of many seem to have habituated to it.

Climate experts find themselves trapped in irony: they can predict disastrous consequences for the planet we live on, yet most people’s eyes glaze over when reading the resulting headlines. We keep scrolling and living our lives. Forests get broiled by apocalyptic infernos, turning our skies red and ravaging entire towns, and we keep scrolling. Summers become human barbecues, with more and more of us dying of heat, and we keep scrolling. Our world has become less hospitable and we seem apathetic to it.

Where does climate apathy come from? Researchers have attempted to answer this question using highly artificial experiments. The most promising of these studies shows us that how we present the alarming data we have can make a difference.

Because as much as climate change seems to be a problem with the outside world, it turns out to also expose the myriad of problems plaguing our inner world: the human brain... (MORE - details)]]> How do you squeeze climate change inside the human brain?
https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/enviro...uman-brain

TAKEAWAY: Some of the reasons that explain why many people do not seem to care about climate change include: our brain’s focus on solving today’s problems; the fact that climate change feels big and intangible; the relative slowness of the changes; and our desire to keep our lifestyle the same. Some people’s apathy can be explained by the fact that they are less emotional in general; that they are politically conservative; or that they feel powerless to stop it. Recent research shows that how we present climate data can better convey what is happening with our environment.

INTRO: The loudest alarm blaring all over the world right now is that of climate change—but the brains of many seem to have habituated to it.

Climate experts find themselves trapped in irony: they can predict disastrous consequences for the planet we live on, yet most people’s eyes glaze over when reading the resulting headlines. We keep scrolling and living our lives. Forests get broiled by apocalyptic infernos, turning our skies red and ravaging entire towns, and we keep scrolling. Summers become human barbecues, with more and more of us dying of heat, and we keep scrolling. Our world has become less hospitable and we seem apathetic to it.

Where does climate apathy come from? Researchers have attempted to answer this question using highly artificial experiments. The most promising of these studies shows us that how we present the alarming data we have can make a difference.

Because as much as climate change seems to be a problem with the outside world, it turns out to also expose the myriad of problems plaguing our inner world: the human brain... (MORE - details)]]> <![CDATA[Schools must adapt to extreme heat in a warming world]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21080.html Wed, 12 Aug 2026 16:07:16 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21080.html https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1139852

INTRO: Heat waves pose a growing threat to learning, health and well-being in schools as extreme heat becomes more frequent and intense across the United States, finds a report by the American Psychological Association and the Network for Resilient PK-12 Schools.

The report, Schools, Climate, and Health: Responding to Extreme Heat, synthesizes the research on how extreme heat affects students and educators and offers recommendations for schools, school districts and administrators to strengthen their districts’ heat planning.

“This report is a valuable resource for educators, administrators, parents and the public to understand how schools can protect children's health, safety and learning as extreme heat becomes more common,” said APA CEO Arthur C. Evans Jr., PhD. “Psychological science demonstrates that extreme heat exposure can impact students' attention, memory and ability to learn, underscoring why schools need to plan now to safeguard learning and promote student health and academic outcomes.”

Students and educators spend much of their waking hours in school buildings, often during the hottest times of the day and at the hottest times of the year, all while many school buildings lack adequate cooling systems. Students face further heat exposure during outdoor activities and their commutes to school. Extreme heat disproportionately affects people with the fewest resources and greatest vulnerabilities, including young children and low-income families, the report finds.

Extreme heat is more than an inconvenience. It can cause acute symptoms such as dehydration, dizziness and nausea, and young children are especially at risk. In the longer term, research has found that heat can elevate stress hormones, disrupt sleep, increase inflammation, and impair cardiovascular and immune functioning.

Heat also harms students’ learning. For example, studies have found lower test scores among students on hot school days. Extreme heat has also been linked to mental health effects such as increases in emergency department visits for mood disorders, self-harm and suicidality among children and adolescents.

Educators’ health and well-being is also at risk from extreme heat, as prolonged heat stress is associated with physical, cognitive and emotional exhaustion, which over time may contribute to burnout.

The report offers concrete steps that school districts can take to reduce these potential harms, including... (MORE - no ads)]]> https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1139852

INTRO: Heat waves pose a growing threat to learning, health and well-being in schools as extreme heat becomes more frequent and intense across the United States, finds a report by the American Psychological Association and the Network for Resilient PK-12 Schools.

The report, Schools, Climate, and Health: Responding to Extreme Heat, synthesizes the research on how extreme heat affects students and educators and offers recommendations for schools, school districts and administrators to strengthen their districts’ heat planning.

“This report is a valuable resource for educators, administrators, parents and the public to understand how schools can protect children's health, safety and learning as extreme heat becomes more common,” said APA CEO Arthur C. Evans Jr., PhD. “Psychological science demonstrates that extreme heat exposure can impact students' attention, memory and ability to learn, underscoring why schools need to plan now to safeguard learning and promote student health and academic outcomes.”

Students and educators spend much of their waking hours in school buildings, often during the hottest times of the day and at the hottest times of the year, all while many school buildings lack adequate cooling systems. Students face further heat exposure during outdoor activities and their commutes to school. Extreme heat disproportionately affects people with the fewest resources and greatest vulnerabilities, including young children and low-income families, the report finds.

Extreme heat is more than an inconvenience. It can cause acute symptoms such as dehydration, dizziness and nausea, and young children are especially at risk. In the longer term, research has found that heat can elevate stress hormones, disrupt sleep, increase inflammation, and impair cardiovascular and immune functioning.

Heat also harms students’ learning. For example, studies have found lower test scores among students on hot school days. Extreme heat has also been linked to mental health effects such as increases in emergency department visits for mood disorders, self-harm and suicidality among children and adolescents.

Educators’ health and well-being is also at risk from extreme heat, as prolonged heat stress is associated with physical, cognitive and emotional exhaustion, which over time may contribute to burnout.

The report offers concrete steps that school districts can take to reduce these potential harms, including... (MORE - no ads)]]> <![CDATA[Siberian methane emissions have dramatically increased, undermining climate targets]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21043.html Fri, 07 Aug 2026 06:54:21 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21043.html Siberian methane emissions have doubled in a decade, study co-led by UK scientists finds
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1139031

INTRO: Methane emissions from Siberia have more than doubled over the past decade, according to new research co-led by scientists at the University of Edinburgh’s National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO). The study, initiated as a collaborative project with researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences during their stay at the University of Edinburgh, reveals that rapid warming, alongside increasing wildfires and shifting wetland activity, is driving a sharp rise in methane emissions from the vast permafrost regions of northern Russia. The findings raise concerns that these accelerating emissions could undermine effects to meet global climate targets... (MORE - no ads)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Siberia’s growing methane threat could offset 20% of global methane reduction targets by 2050
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1138027

INTRO: The Arctic is warming at an accelerating pace. As permafrost thaws across vast areas and wildfires become more frequent, large amounts of methane (CH4) are being released. Together, these changes are reshaping the region's greenhouse-gas emissions and further intensifying climate change.

In a study published in Science on August 6, an international team led by Prof. LIU Yi from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences investigated how CH4 emissions in Siberia are evolving under climate change, showing how atmospheric circulation promotes wildfire activity and methanogenesis and thereby drives the recent sharp rise in CH4 emissions.

Although Siberia accounts for only ~5% of global CH4 emissions, sparse observations and complex environmental conditions have made its emissions difficult to quantify, resulting in widely varied estimates. Under these conditions, researchers have long struggled to understand changes in the region's emissions and the role played by temperature, making Siberia an important source of uncertainty in the global CH4 budget.

Using a methane flux inversion system developed by Dr. ZHU Sihong from IAP, first author of this study, researchers integrated measurements from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) with data from a global network of near-surface monitoring stations, including tall-tower observations in Siberia. This approach reduced uncertainties in estimates of both Siberian CH4 emissions and their growth trend to roughly 10%.

Researchers found that annual CH4 emissions in Siberia rose by 12.0 ± 1.9 teragrams (Tg) between 2010 and 2023, increasing by an average of 1.1 ± 0.1 Tg each year. Notably, this rate of increase was equivalent to 92% of the increase in emissions from wetlands worldwide, which account for nearly one-third of global CH4 emissions... (MORE - no ads)]]> Siberian methane emissions have doubled in a decade, study co-led by UK scientists finds
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1139031

INTRO: Methane emissions from Siberia have more than doubled over the past decade, according to new research co-led by scientists at the University of Edinburgh’s National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO). The study, initiated as a collaborative project with researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences during their stay at the University of Edinburgh, reveals that rapid warming, alongside increasing wildfires and shifting wetland activity, is driving a sharp rise in methane emissions from the vast permafrost regions of northern Russia. The findings raise concerns that these accelerating emissions could undermine effects to meet global climate targets... (MORE - no ads)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Siberia’s growing methane threat could offset 20% of global methane reduction targets by 2050
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1138027

INTRO: The Arctic is warming at an accelerating pace. As permafrost thaws across vast areas and wildfires become more frequent, large amounts of methane (CH4) are being released. Together, these changes are reshaping the region's greenhouse-gas emissions and further intensifying climate change.

In a study published in Science on August 6, an international team led by Prof. LIU Yi from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences investigated how CH4 emissions in Siberia are evolving under climate change, showing how atmospheric circulation promotes wildfire activity and methanogenesis and thereby drives the recent sharp rise in CH4 emissions.

Although Siberia accounts for only ~5% of global CH4 emissions, sparse observations and complex environmental conditions have made its emissions difficult to quantify, resulting in widely varied estimates. Under these conditions, researchers have long struggled to understand changes in the region's emissions and the role played by temperature, making Siberia an important source of uncertainty in the global CH4 budget.

Using a methane flux inversion system developed by Dr. ZHU Sihong from IAP, first author of this study, researchers integrated measurements from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) with data from a global network of near-surface monitoring stations, including tall-tower observations in Siberia. This approach reduced uncertainties in estimates of both Siberian CH4 emissions and their growth trend to roughly 10%.

Researchers found that annual CH4 emissions in Siberia rose by 12.0 ± 1.9 teragrams (Tg) between 2010 and 2023, increasing by an average of 1.1 ± 0.1 Tg each year. Notably, this rate of increase was equivalent to 92% of the increase in emissions from wetlands worldwide, which account for nearly one-third of global CH4 emissions... (MORE - no ads)]]> <![CDATA[Spokane Wildfires]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21006.html Sun, 02 Aug 2026 05:05:17 +0000 Yazata]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-21006.html
(I've always liked Spokane. It's big enough to have all the urban amenities, but small enough to avoid many urban problems. It's kind of found the sweet spot.)

Official perimeter map of the Old Trail Fire

[Image: HOr_LcyW0AAZ-OS?format=jpg&name=small]

[Image: HOr_LcwXwAA7fT-?format=jpg&name=small]

[Image: HOrDcqdWYAAt4AZ?format=png&name=medium]

[Image: HOr8pvea4AAXgRn?format=jpg&name=small]

Photo taken from a neighborhood sports complex. The complex has since burned to the ground.

[Image: HOsM1vuakAABwWt?format=jpg&name=small]

Evacuating

[Image: HOqu3gNXwAAER-c?format=jpg&name=small]

Firefighting helicopter working one of the fires. This appears to be further out of town, perhaps the Autumn Lane Fire. There are multiple helicopters and fixed wing aircraft working the multiple fires. The Washington National Guard is being deployed and there's video of their Chinook twin-rotor helicopters in action.

[Image: HOrLeyia8AAGXSP?format=jpg&name=small]

]]>
(I've always liked Spokane. It's big enough to have all the urban amenities, but small enough to avoid many urban problems. It's kind of found the sweet spot.)

Official perimeter map of the Old Trail Fire

Photo taken from a neighborhood sports complex. The complex has since burned to the ground.

Evacuating

]]> <![CDATA[Europeans are increasingly worried about climate change]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-20956.html Mon, 27 Jul 2026 18:29:01 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-20956.html So those quasi-successful attempts by governments (like Germany), to undermine their regional economies with green energy replacement, are just regarded by the masses as superficial virtue signaling? The latter actually crave more fetish-level punishment? (Closings, job losses, price increases, etc.)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Europeans are increasingly worried about climate change
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1137636

INTRO: Over the past decade, environmental concern among Europeans grew, despite migration, financial crises and the COVID‑19 pandemic – rising to become the third most important issue after health and the economy. Over the same period, climate change moved from being one of many problems to the most important environmental issue in Europe.

These and other insights into European environmental attitudes are analysed in detail in a new monograph, Green European Revisited, published by Palgrave Macmillan Cham. This is the second volume by the same team, again focusing on how Europeans think about environmental issues over time.

“There is a myth, which I hear time and time again, that Europe is a so-called green continent,” Professor Audronė Telešienė, a researcher at Kaunas University of Technology (KTU), Lithuania, the chief editor of the book, says, “whereas in reality, Europe has placed exceptionally heavy pressures on the natural environment, greater in some respects than those generated by several other continents combined. As the first continent to industrialise, it has experienced extensive and long-term ecosystem degradation.”

However, she emphasises that Europeans demonstrate leadership in implementing green policies that can help the world to deal with the climate crisis and its impacts. Nordic countries are most concerned... (MORE - details)]]> So those quasi-successful attempts by governments (like Germany), to undermine their regional economies with green energy replacement, are just regarded by the masses as superficial virtue signaling? The latter actually crave more fetish-level punishment? (Closings, job losses, price increases, etc.)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Europeans are increasingly worried about climate change
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1137636

INTRO: Over the past decade, environmental concern among Europeans grew, despite migration, financial crises and the COVID‑19 pandemic – rising to become the third most important issue after health and the economy. Over the same period, climate change moved from being one of many problems to the most important environmental issue in Europe.

These and other insights into European environmental attitudes are analysed in detail in a new monograph, Green European Revisited, published by Palgrave Macmillan Cham. This is the second volume by the same team, again focusing on how Europeans think about environmental issues over time.

“There is a myth, which I hear time and time again, that Europe is a so-called green continent,” Professor Audronė Telešienė, a researcher at Kaunas University of Technology (KTU), Lithuania, the chief editor of the book, says, “whereas in reality, Europe has placed exceptionally heavy pressures on the natural environment, greater in some respects than those generated by several other continents combined. As the first continent to industrialise, it has experienced extensive and long-term ecosystem degradation.”

However, she emphasises that Europeans demonstrate leadership in implementing green policies that can help the world to deal with the climate crisis and its impacts. Nordic countries are most concerned... (MORE - details)]]> <![CDATA[Why cutting emissions can't fix Europe's heat waves]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-20912.html Tue, 21 Jul 2026 16:14:39 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-20912.html https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/why...re-getting

EXCERPTS: This is the second of two posts. Part 1, “Why Europe’s Heat Waves Are Getting Worse,” argued that “climate change” is not a cause of European heat waves but an outcome — the detected change in the statistics of weather, produced by several interacting factors. I sorted those factors into three bins: the direct effect of greenhouse gases, their indirect effects, and factors other than greenhouse gases, notably the post-1980 reduction in air pollution.

This post takes up a policy question: if the world accelerates decarbonization and reaches net zero, what should we expect to happen to European heat waves, and on what time scales?

[...] Part 1 also discussed the hypothesis that cleaner air drove a large part of Europe’s rapid summer warming since 1980: as sulfate pollution fell, more sunlight reached the surface, adding about half a degree of regional warming (Schumacher et al. 2024) and possibly reshaping circulation patterns toward conditions more favorable for heat waves.

If that hypothesis is correct, then reducing the burning of fossil fuels, and thus carbon dioxide emissions, would also contribute in the near term to increased heat waves in Europe: Stopping the burning of coal, oil, and gas also reduces particulate pollution. Those aerosols mask some warming by reflecting sunlight. Globally, aerosol cooling offsets a substantial share of greenhouse warming; removing the aerosols unmasks that warming. In some projections, the near-term warming from reducing aerosols rivals the warming avoided by cutting the carbon dioxide itself (Palazzo Corner et al. 2023).

The point here is not against cutting carbon dioxide emissions. It is against claiming that reducing those emissions is a solution to Europe’s heat waves as cutting emissions might not deliver what is promised.

Let’s assume that the world achieves net-zero carbon dioxide emissions: When would we detect the effects on climate? (MORE - missing details)

The scientific literature provides a clear answer: not soon... (MORE - missing details)]]> https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/why...re-getting

EXCERPTS: This is the second of two posts. Part 1, “Why Europe’s Heat Waves Are Getting Worse,” argued that “climate change” is not a cause of European heat waves but an outcome — the detected change in the statistics of weather, produced by several interacting factors. I sorted those factors into three bins: the direct effect of greenhouse gases, their indirect effects, and factors other than greenhouse gases, notably the post-1980 reduction in air pollution.

This post takes up a policy question: if the world accelerates decarbonization and reaches net zero, what should we expect to happen to European heat waves, and on what time scales?

[...] Part 1 also discussed the hypothesis that cleaner air drove a large part of Europe’s rapid summer warming since 1980: as sulfate pollution fell, more sunlight reached the surface, adding about half a degree of regional warming (Schumacher et al. 2024) and possibly reshaping circulation patterns toward conditions more favorable for heat waves.

If that hypothesis is correct, then reducing the burning of fossil fuels, and thus carbon dioxide emissions, would also contribute in the near term to increased heat waves in Europe: Stopping the burning of coal, oil, and gas also reduces particulate pollution. Those aerosols mask some warming by reflecting sunlight. Globally, aerosol cooling offsets a substantial share of greenhouse warming; removing the aerosols unmasks that warming. In some projections, the near-term warming from reducing aerosols rivals the warming avoided by cutting the carbon dioxide itself (Palazzo Corner et al. 2023).

The point here is not against cutting carbon dioxide emissions. It is against claiming that reducing those emissions is a solution to Europe’s heat waves as cutting emissions might not deliver what is promised.

Let’s assume that the world achieves net-zero carbon dioxide emissions: When would we detect the effects on climate? (MORE - missing details)

The scientific literature provides a clear answer: not soon... (MORE - missing details)]]> <![CDATA[The risk of weather data sabotage is rising]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-20898.html Mon, 20 Jul 2026 16:17:36 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-20898.html https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/07...-sabotage/

EXCERPTS: Predictions are used to warn people about extreme weather and to trigger emergency response measures. More recently, weather predictions have become relevant for an emerging industry: prediction markets, where people bet money on all kinds of real-world events, including the weather.

However, the temptation to manipulate weather data to get an edge in these markets, combined with a collective move toward data-driven AI weather forecasting, is starting to put the accuracy of weather predictions at risk. These risks are relatively manageable for now, but as experts in the field, we can foresee scenarios where they snowball into far bigger, more systemic problems.

[...] Fortunately, tampering with a single station like this can usually be caught by human monitoring or current statistical methods. In this case, members of a French climate nonprofit association noticed the anomalies by chance and raised the alarm.

But what if there are no human monitoring systems in place? And what about other types of manipulation? What if, instead of tampering with one station, someone remotely nudged the readings at many stations at once—making each change small enough to look plausible on its own? Existing quality controls struggle to catch this kind of coordinated manipulation. And time works against us; careful checks of data and metadata take hours or days, but forecasts have to go out on schedule, whatever the weather is doing.

The shift toward artificial intelligence in weather prediction raises the stakes. These methods are even more dependent on accurate, reliable weather observations; in fact, they are known as “data-driven models.”

[...] As long as there are financial (or other) incentives to manipulate observational data, adversaries will search for new opportunities, and it is our task to stay one step ahead. Here are three ways... (MORE - missing details, limited ads)]]> https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/07...-sabotage/

EXCERPTS: Predictions are used to warn people about extreme weather and to trigger emergency response measures. More recently, weather predictions have become relevant for an emerging industry: prediction markets, where people bet money on all kinds of real-world events, including the weather.

However, the temptation to manipulate weather data to get an edge in these markets, combined with a collective move toward data-driven AI weather forecasting, is starting to put the accuracy of weather predictions at risk. These risks are relatively manageable for now, but as experts in the field, we can foresee scenarios where they snowball into far bigger, more systemic problems.

[...] Fortunately, tampering with a single station like this can usually be caught by human monitoring or current statistical methods. In this case, members of a French climate nonprofit association noticed the anomalies by chance and raised the alarm.

But what if there are no human monitoring systems in place? And what about other types of manipulation? What if, instead of tampering with one station, someone remotely nudged the readings at many stations at once—making each change small enough to look plausible on its own? Existing quality controls struggle to catch this kind of coordinated manipulation. And time works against us; careful checks of data and metadata take hours or days, but forecasts have to go out on schedule, whatever the weather is doing.

The shift toward artificial intelligence in weather prediction raises the stakes. These methods are even more dependent on accurate, reliable weather observations; in fact, they are known as “data-driven models.”

[...] As long as there are financial (or other) incentives to manipulate observational data, adversaries will search for new opportunities, and it is our task to stay one step ahead. Here are three ways... (MORE - missing details, limited ads)]]> <![CDATA[The climate hushing is coming from inside the house]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-20827.html Thu, 09 Jul 2026 23:02:38 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-20827.html https://www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/th...oming-from

INTRO: In January, Senator Sheldon Whitehouse coined the term “climate hushers” to describe his fellow Democrats who stopped talking about climate change in recent years. Inside Climate News recently quantified this trend, observing a marked decline in congressional press releases that mention “climate change” since 2022.

Whitehouse and his allies have chalked up climate hushing to bad advice from a cowardly pundit class. In April, Bill McKibben called the phenomenon “a product of political consultants looking at polling data.” Last week, Kate Aronoff described hushing as “received wisdom among party pollsters and pundits,” while Aaron Regunberg attributed the trend to “a host of think tanks and pundits—mostly corporatist outfits like WelcomePAC, the Searchlight Institute, and the Breakthrough Institute.”

Most of the coverage of climate hushing has tended to invoke this polling and the punditry. In particular, the anti-hushers are furious about a September 2025 analysis from the Searchlight Institute counseling Democrats “Don’t Say Climate Change,” and a May 2026 op-ed in the New York Times in which the socialist scholar Matt Huber wrote “American voters broadly agree that climate change is a real concern and support addressing it, but they largely do not see it as a top priority.”

And, as the author of the original essay on what we now call climate hushing, I feel some standing to intervene here. So let me be clear: Climate hushing is not principally a punditry phenomenon. It’s an increasingly widespread stance taken not just by moderate strategists, but by the progressive politicians and environmental movement leaders who shape the Democrats’ climate and energy agenda. And it’s happening because the world is changing faster than the anti-hushers can keep up with... (MORE - details)]]> https://www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/th...oming-from

INTRO: In January, Senator Sheldon Whitehouse coined the term “climate hushers” to describe his fellow Democrats who stopped talking about climate change in recent years. Inside Climate News recently quantified this trend, observing a marked decline in congressional press releases that mention “climate change” since 2022.

Whitehouse and his allies have chalked up climate hushing to bad advice from a cowardly pundit class. In April, Bill McKibben called the phenomenon “a product of political consultants looking at polling data.” Last week, Kate Aronoff described hushing as “received wisdom among party pollsters and pundits,” while Aaron Regunberg attributed the trend to “a host of think tanks and pundits—mostly corporatist outfits like WelcomePAC, the Searchlight Institute, and the Breakthrough Institute.”

Most of the coverage of climate hushing has tended to invoke this polling and the punditry. In particular, the anti-hushers are furious about a September 2025 analysis from the Searchlight Institute counseling Democrats “Don’t Say Climate Change,” and a May 2026 op-ed in the New York Times in which the socialist scholar Matt Huber wrote “American voters broadly agree that climate change is a real concern and support addressing it, but they largely do not see it as a top priority.”

And, as the author of the original essay on what we now call climate hushing, I feel some standing to intervene here. So let me be clear: Climate hushing is not principally a punditry phenomenon. It’s an increasingly widespread stance taken not just by moderate strategists, but by the progressive politicians and environmental movement leaders who shape the Democrats’ climate and energy agenda. And it’s happening because the world is changing faster than the anti-hushers can keep up with... (MORE - details)]]> <![CDATA[This remarkable microbe could help farmers survive rising seas (climate remedies)]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-20790.html Sat, 04 Jul 2026 15:40:55 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-20790.html https://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/202...sing-seas/

EXCERPTS: The obliging microbe, a type of bacteria called Pseudomonas, was identified lurking around the roots of plants exposed to high salt levels, a situation expected to grow worse as climate change causes rising sea levels that push salty water further inland from the coast.

Researchers on a new Science Advances paper observed that while other bacterial colonies died off under salty conditions, Pseudomonas microbes continued to thrive around the roots of wild soybean plants. They think this is because the bacteria contain specialized genes, and it suggests that the microbes hold a competitive advantage under salty conditions.

[...] They found that not only did the bacteria swiftly colonize soybean roots—their numbers rising twofold under salt stress—but compared to controls the inoculated soybeans also experienced a significant growth boost under salty conditions, developing considerably longer roots and also forming more lateral ones. The soybeans showed increased salt tolerance in greenhouse experiments, and in open field experiments too.

The question is how the microscopic soil residents seemed to be facilitating this remarkable resilience in plants, something the researchers still don’t have a full answer to. But further investigation gave them some clues—particularly as they noticed that lignin levels in the cell walls of inoculated soybeans increased by between 30 and 35% under salt stress, compared to non-inoculated plants... (MORE - missing detail)]]> https://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/202...sing-seas/

EXCERPTS: The obliging microbe, a type of bacteria called Pseudomonas, was identified lurking around the roots of plants exposed to high salt levels, a situation expected to grow worse as climate change causes rising sea levels that push salty water further inland from the coast.

Researchers on a new Science Advances paper observed that while other bacterial colonies died off under salty conditions, Pseudomonas microbes continued to thrive around the roots of wild soybean plants. They think this is because the bacteria contain specialized genes, and it suggests that the microbes hold a competitive advantage under salty conditions.

[...] They found that not only did the bacteria swiftly colonize soybean roots—their numbers rising twofold under salt stress—but compared to controls the inoculated soybeans also experienced a significant growth boost under salty conditions, developing considerably longer roots and also forming more lateral ones. The soybeans showed increased salt tolerance in greenhouse experiments, and in open field experiments too.

The question is how the microscopic soil residents seemed to be facilitating this remarkable resilience in plants, something the researchers still don’t have a full answer to. But further investigation gave them some clues—particularly as they noticed that lignin levels in the cell walls of inoculated soybeans increased by between 30 and 35% under salt stress, compared to non-inoculated plants... (MORE - missing detail)]]> <![CDATA[Europeans in shock about America's air conditioning (the coincidence of it all)]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-20742.html Sun, 28 Jun 2026 22:39:13 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-20742.html
Brits can't believe America's air conditioning ... https://youtu.be/Icd36PEU2jk

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/Icd36PEU2jk]]>
Brits can't believe America's air conditioning ... https://youtu.be/Icd36PEU2jk

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/Icd36PEU2jk]]> <![CDATA[Why Europe is turning into a heat trap: the 'omega block' explained]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-20719.html Thu, 25 Jun 2026 13:38:06 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-20719.html https://www.outlookindia.com/internation...-heat-trap

INTRO: Western Europe is once again in the grip of an intense heatwave, with countries including France, the United Kingdom, Italy and the Netherlands recording unusually high temperatures. The extreme weather has disrupted daily life, forcing school closures, interrupting public transport and prompting authorities to open air-conditioned public spaces to vulnerable residents.

More than 40 people have drowned in France over the past week after seeking relief from the heat in unsupervised waters. The country recorded its hottest day since records began in 1947, with temperatures reaching 44.3 degrees Celsius. Thousands of homes have also been left without electricity amid the heatwave. Across Europe, governments have issued extreme heat warnings as temperatures continue to soar.

Meteorologists say the prolonged heat is being driven by a weather phenomenon known as an omega block. An omega block is named after the Greek letter O because of the distinctive shape it creates in the atmosphere. It forms when a large area of high pressure becomes trapped between two low-pressure systems on either side.

Under normal conditions, the jet stream pushes weather systems steadily from west to east. During an omega block, however, the jet stream becomes distorted and buckles dramatically north and south, isolating the pressure systems. Weaker steering winds and reduced temperature contrasts in the atmosphere can contribute to these slow-moving patterns.

The high-pressure system effectively becomes stuck in place, preventing weather from moving through the region as it normally would. As a result, the same conditions can persist for days or even weeks. Most omega blocks last between three and ten days, but some have been known to endure much longer.

The centre of an omega block is dominated by high pressure, which creates hot, dry and stable conditions. High pressure suppresses cloud formation, resulting in clear skies and prolonged sunshine that allow temperatures to rise steadily.

These are the conditions currently affecting parts of France and Spain, where temperatures have climbed above 40 degrees Celsius. With little cloud cover and no significant weather systems moving through, the heat remains trapped over the same areas day after day.

Meanwhile, the low-pressure systems on either side of the omega block experience very different weather. These regions are more likely to receive cooler temperatures, cloud cover and rainfall. Britain currently sits near the boundary between the hot high-pressure system and cooler air to the northwest, creating a sharp contrast between hotter conditions in the south and east and cooler, wetter weather in the north and west.

Unlike many tropical regions, European cities were historically built to retain warmth rather than cope with prolonged extreme heat. As a result, many homes and public buildings can become heat traps during severe heatwaves.

Air conditioning remains far less common in Europe than in other parts of the world. While nearly 90 per cent of homes in the United States have air conditioning, only around 20 per cent of European homes do. For decades, much of Europe simply did not experience sustained periods of extreme heat frequently enough to justify widespread cooling systems.

This has contributed to a culture in which air conditioning has often been viewed as a luxury rather than a necessity. Higher energy costs in many European countries have also discouraged widespread adoption. As a result, many residents rely on electric fans, cold showers and other temporary measures to cope with heatwaves.

Some southern European regions have traditionally adapted to warmer climates through architecture. Thick walls, smaller windows and designs that maximise airflow help keep buildings cooler naturally. However, in many parts of northern and western Europe, homes were not designed with rising temperatures in mind, leaving residents especially vulnerable during prolonged heat events.

Scientists have not yet reached a consensus on whether climate change is directly increasing the frequency of omega blocks and other atmospheric blocking events. What is clear, however, is that climate change is making heatwaves more intense... (MORE - details)]]> https://www.outlookindia.com/internation...-heat-trap

INTRO: Western Europe is once again in the grip of an intense heatwave, with countries including France, the United Kingdom, Italy and the Netherlands recording unusually high temperatures. The extreme weather has disrupted daily life, forcing school closures, interrupting public transport and prompting authorities to open air-conditioned public spaces to vulnerable residents.

More than 40 people have drowned in France over the past week after seeking relief from the heat in unsupervised waters. The country recorded its hottest day since records began in 1947, with temperatures reaching 44.3 degrees Celsius. Thousands of homes have also been left without electricity amid the heatwave. Across Europe, governments have issued extreme heat warnings as temperatures continue to soar.

Meteorologists say the prolonged heat is being driven by a weather phenomenon known as an omega block. An omega block is named after the Greek letter O because of the distinctive shape it creates in the atmosphere. It forms when a large area of high pressure becomes trapped between two low-pressure systems on either side.

Under normal conditions, the jet stream pushes weather systems steadily from west to east. During an omega block, however, the jet stream becomes distorted and buckles dramatically north and south, isolating the pressure systems. Weaker steering winds and reduced temperature contrasts in the atmosphere can contribute to these slow-moving patterns.

The high-pressure system effectively becomes stuck in place, preventing weather from moving through the region as it normally would. As a result, the same conditions can persist for days or even weeks. Most omega blocks last between three and ten days, but some have been known to endure much longer.

The centre of an omega block is dominated by high pressure, which creates hot, dry and stable conditions. High pressure suppresses cloud formation, resulting in clear skies and prolonged sunshine that allow temperatures to rise steadily.

These are the conditions currently affecting parts of France and Spain, where temperatures have climbed above 40 degrees Celsius. With little cloud cover and no significant weather systems moving through, the heat remains trapped over the same areas day after day.

Meanwhile, the low-pressure systems on either side of the omega block experience very different weather. These regions are more likely to receive cooler temperatures, cloud cover and rainfall. Britain currently sits near the boundary between the hot high-pressure system and cooler air to the northwest, creating a sharp contrast between hotter conditions in the south and east and cooler, wetter weather in the north and west.

Unlike many tropical regions, European cities were historically built to retain warmth rather than cope with prolonged extreme heat. As a result, many homes and public buildings can become heat traps during severe heatwaves.

Air conditioning remains far less common in Europe than in other parts of the world. While nearly 90 per cent of homes in the United States have air conditioning, only around 20 per cent of European homes do. For decades, much of Europe simply did not experience sustained periods of extreme heat frequently enough to justify widespread cooling systems.

This has contributed to a culture in which air conditioning has often been viewed as a luxury rather than a necessity. Higher energy costs in many European countries have also discouraged widespread adoption. As a result, many residents rely on electric fans, cold showers and other temporary measures to cope with heatwaves.

Some southern European regions have traditionally adapted to warmer climates through architecture. Thick walls, smaller windows and designs that maximise airflow help keep buildings cooler naturally. However, in many parts of northern and western Europe, homes were not designed with rising temperatures in mind, leaving residents especially vulnerable during prolonged heat events.

Scientists have not yet reached a consensus on whether climate change is directly increasing the frequency of omega blocks and other atmospheric blocking events. What is clear, however, is that climate change is making heatwaves more intense... (MORE - details)]]> <![CDATA[UK rivers face rising risk of climate ‘whiplash’]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-20662.html Wed, 17 Jun 2026 19:46:42 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-20662.html https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1132140

EXCERPTS: Climate change could push UK rivers to dangerous extremes and see more frequent rapid swings between wet and dry conditions - a phenomenon known as hydroclimatic whiplash - according to research led by the University of East Anglia (UEA).

Researchers analysed almost 700 river catchments across the UK to project how river flows may change at 2°C and 4°C of global warming. The results reveal stark regional contrasts and growing challenges for communities and water managers trying to plan for flood and drought risk - particularly in areas that will increasingly experience both.

Publishing their findings today in the journal Earth’s Future, the authors also warn of more intense river flooding during extreme rainfall events in western and northern parts of the UK and longer dry spells and lower river flows in southern and eastern England, regions that are already water‑stressed.

The authors say the findings underscore the need for regionally tailored adaptation, including enhanced flood-risk management and greater capacity to store water during wetter periods in western and northern parts of the UK, and strengthened water-supply resilience and demand management in southern and eastern England.

[...] Dry-to-wet hydroclimatic whiplash - sudden shifts from dry to wet conditions - may increase the risk of flash flooding, water quality deterioration and soil erosion, while wet-to-dry shifts can make drought planning harder because preceding wet conditions may create a false sense of security before a rapid move into drought.

Projected changes under both 2°C and 4°C warming scenarios show widespread increases in the frequency of both types of whiplash events. For dry-to-wet whiplash, increases are projected across most of the UK. In some catchments, the number of events rises from around four over a 30-year period in the 1981–2010 baseline to around seven to nine under 4°C warming.

Overall, stronger increases can be observed in South Wales, Northern Ireland, Northern and Western England and parts of southeast England... (MORE - no ads)]]> https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1132140

EXCERPTS: Climate change could push UK rivers to dangerous extremes and see more frequent rapid swings between wet and dry conditions - a phenomenon known as hydroclimatic whiplash - according to research led by the University of East Anglia (UEA).

Researchers analysed almost 700 river catchments across the UK to project how river flows may change at 2°C and 4°C of global warming. The results reveal stark regional contrasts and growing challenges for communities and water managers trying to plan for flood and drought risk - particularly in areas that will increasingly experience both.

Publishing their findings today in the journal Earth’s Future, the authors also warn of more intense river flooding during extreme rainfall events in western and northern parts of the UK and longer dry spells and lower river flows in southern and eastern England, regions that are already water‑stressed.

The authors say the findings underscore the need for regionally tailored adaptation, including enhanced flood-risk management and greater capacity to store water during wetter periods in western and northern parts of the UK, and strengthened water-supply resilience and demand management in southern and eastern England.

[...] Dry-to-wet hydroclimatic whiplash - sudden shifts from dry to wet conditions - may increase the risk of flash flooding, water quality deterioration and soil erosion, while wet-to-dry shifts can make drought planning harder because preceding wet conditions may create a false sense of security before a rapid move into drought.

Projected changes under both 2°C and 4°C warming scenarios show widespread increases in the frequency of both types of whiplash events. For dry-to-wet whiplash, increases are projected across most of the UK. In some catchments, the number of events rises from around four over a 30-year period in the 1981–2010 baseline to around seven to nine under 4°C warming.

Overall, stronger increases can be observed in South Wales, Northern Ireland, Northern and Western England and parts of southeast England... (MORE - no ads)]]> <![CDATA[Drought linked to 46% increase in sex violence among adolescents in Southern Africa]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-20559.html Tue, 02 Jun 2026 00:53:23 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-20559.html https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1129947

INTRO: New research from the University of Oxford provides the first quantitative evidence that drought exposure over the last 12 months is associated with increased risk of sexual, emotional and physical violence among adolescents in Southern Africa. This risk rises substantially during cumulative droughts over 2 years.

Analysing data from over 20,000 adolescents (aged 13-24) in Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Lesotho, the study finds girls and young women, older adolescents (aged 18-24) and those living in rural areas face the highest risk of violence during drought conditions.

Water availability in Southern Africa is expected to decline by 30% by 2050. As water scarcity intensifies, levels of poverty, food insecurity and mental health distress increase - worsening inequalities, separating families and driving harmful coping mechanisms such as child marriage, child labour, and forced migration.

This is particularly alarming in sub-Saharan Africa, where an estimated 79 million girls experience sexual violence before age 18 and 1 in 2 children experience a form of violence in the past year. The study highlights that climate change is intensifying this crisis for the region’s 226 million adolescents... (MORE - no ads)]]> https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1129947

INTRO: New research from the University of Oxford provides the first quantitative evidence that drought exposure over the last 12 months is associated with increased risk of sexual, emotional and physical violence among adolescents in Southern Africa. This risk rises substantially during cumulative droughts over 2 years.

Analysing data from over 20,000 adolescents (aged 13-24) in Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Lesotho, the study finds girls and young women, older adolescents (aged 18-24) and those living in rural areas face the highest risk of violence during drought conditions.

Water availability in Southern Africa is expected to decline by 30% by 2050. As water scarcity intensifies, levels of poverty, food insecurity and mental health distress increase - worsening inequalities, separating families and driving harmful coping mechanisms such as child marriage, child labour, and forced migration.

This is particularly alarming in sub-Saharan Africa, where an estimated 79 million girls experience sexual violence before age 18 and 1 in 2 children experience a form of violence in the past year. The study highlights that climate change is intensifying this crisis for the region’s 226 million adolescents... (MORE - no ads)]]> <![CDATA[Are satellite megaconstellations accidentally geoengineering the Earth?]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-20525.html Wed, 27 May 2026 18:58:17 +0000 C C]]> https://www.scivillage.com/thread-20525.html https://www.universetoday.com/articles/a...-the-earth

EXCERPTS: Satellite megaconstellations (SMCs) have been growing in size at a startling clip the last few years. [...] the main rocket engine that launches SMCs into orbit (Falcon 9) emits hardly any chlorine at all, since it uses kerosene as its main fuel.

But here comes the bad news - kerosene does have another polluting effect - soot. Typically soot produced by ground sources is washed out by rain over a very short period of time. However, when it’s launched into the stratosphere behind a rocket, it can stay there for much longer - up to four years according to the paper.

The effects of all this soot in the stratosphere are complex. There’s some argument to be made that these black particles actually block some of the Sun’s light in the upper atmosphere. This consequently cools the lower atmosphere, but also heats the upper one.

While the first one sounds like a net benefit, given the ongoing trouble we are having in limiting other our climate damaging activities, we understand very little about the impact of heat on the upper atmosphere. According to the paper, SMC launches are responsible for 56% of this “instantaneous warming” coming from launches - and that number is only set to grow... (MORE - missing details)]]> https://www.universetoday.com/articles/a...-the-earth

EXCERPTS: Satellite megaconstellations (SMCs) have been growing in size at a startling clip the last few years. [...] the main rocket engine that launches SMCs into orbit (Falcon 9) emits hardly any chlorine at all, since it uses kerosene as its main fuel.

But here comes the bad news - kerosene does have another polluting effect - soot. Typically soot produced by ground sources is washed out by rain over a very short period of time. However, when it’s launched into the stratosphere behind a rocket, it can stay there for much longer - up to four years according to the paper.

The effects of all this soot in the stratosphere are complex. There’s some argument to be made that these black particles actually block some of the Sun’s light in the upper atmosphere. This consequently cools the lower atmosphere, but also heats the upper one.

While the first one sounds like a net benefit, given the ongoing trouble we are having in limiting other our climate damaging activities, we understand very little about the impact of heat on the upper atmosphere. According to the paper, SMC launches are responsible for 56% of this “instantaneous warming” coming from launches - and that number is only set to grow... (MORE - missing details)]]>