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+--- Thread: US Covid infections likely 8 times higher (/thread-9438.html)
US Covid infections likely 8 times higher - Syne - Nov 29, 2020
The number of coronavirus infections in the U.S. could be nearly eight times higher than current reported cases, according to a new model by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
...
There are more than 12.9 million confirmed U.S. coronavirus cases and more than 263,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins.
So, if you account for all unreported cases the CDC team estimated, the actual case count as of Nov. 27 would stand at just over 103 million.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article247457275.html
So, just using those figures, that's a death rate of 0.00025%.
Compare that to the 2019-2020 flu season, which is 0.057%, according to the CDC figures here: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2019-2020.html
And that's considering that in the 2019-2020 flu season "deaths were higher than those observed during the 2017-2018 season", which was, itself, severe.
RE: US Covid infections likely 8 times higher - confused2 - Dec 1, 2020
(Nov 29, 2020 08:49 AM)Syne Wrote:The number of coronavirus infections in the U.S. could be nearly eight times higher than current reported cases, according to a new model by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
...
There are more than 12.9 million confirmed U.S. coronavirus cases and more than 263,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins.
So, if you account for all unreported cases the CDC team estimated, the actual case count as of Nov. 27 would stand at just over 103 million.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article247457275.html
So, just using those figures, that's a death rate of 0.00025%.
Compare that to the 2019-2020 flu season, which is 0.057%, according to the CDC figures here: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2019-2020.html
And that's considering that in the 2019-2020 flu season "deaths were higher than those observed during the 2017-2018 season", which was, itself, severe.
Not sure what figures you used to get your 0.00025% but I think something has gone wrong somewhere.
To get a percentage you divide the one thing by the other and multiply by 100.
So
There are more than 12.9 million confirmed U.S. coronavirus cases and more than 263,000 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins.
Get the ratio of deaths to cases..
[263000 deaths]/[12900000 cases]= 0.02
Now multiply by 100 to express this as a percentage - how many people out 100 would be expected to die
0.02*100=2%
So
263,000 is 2% of 12.9 million.
Ah - I see it. 263,000 deaths out of an estimated 103 million cases.
263000/103000000=0.0025
Now multiply by 100 to get a percentage
0.0025*100=0.255
so 263,000 out of 103 million is 0.25%
Quote:During the 2019-2020 influenza season, CDC estimates that influenza was associated with 38 million illnesses, 18 million medical visits, 405,000 hospitalizations, and 22,000 deaths.
from https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2019-2020.html
Finding the percentage of deaths from 22,000 deaths among 38 million infections
Proportion first
22000/38000000= 0.00057
Multiply by 100 to get percentage
0.00057*100=0.057
So
the percentage of deaths from 22,000 deaths among 38 million infections is 0.057%
So, using the estimated figures for corvid-19 we find corvid-19 is (0.25/0.057) 4.3 times fataler (?) than flu (CDC 2019-2020 flu season estimate)
RE: US Covid infections likely 8 times higher - Syne - Dec 1, 2020
Something must have got screwed up with the percentage calculator I used (notice my flu death rate is correct), as running ti again, it does come to a 0.25% death rate for Covid.
Taking into account the CDC "found that for most regions, there were likely 10 times more coronavirus cases than official numbers reported", that would put Covid at 0.2%. Either way, going from a 2% death rate to 0.2-0.25% (an eighth or less of the official figure) is significant, especially for public policies which bring their own associated deaths.