+- Scivillage.com Casual Discussion Science Forum (https://www.scivillage.com)
+-- Forum: Science (https://www.scivillage.com/forum-61.html)
+--- Forum: Biochemistry, Biology & Virology (https://www.scivillage.com/forum-76.html)
+--- Thread: Some Covid Comments (/thread-9301.html)
Pages:
1
2
Some Covid Comments - Yazata - Nov 2, 2020
A story told by a single chart
Deaths per million. Note the extraordinarily high spike for New York state. This was likely the result of extraordinarily bad state policy that directed covid patients into nursing homes filled with fragile elderly people with all kinds or preexisting conditions. (The nursing homes were forbidden by state law from rejecting the covid patients.) The justification for doing this was an anticipated wave of covid hospitalizations that never materialized that officials feared would overwhelm hospitals. Remember all the shrieking about 'not enough ventilators'? (So Trump's people managed sourcing emergency supplies of ventilators... that ended up never being used. To say nothing of a large Army field hospital in Central Park and a hospital ship in the harbor, that were never needed.)
The real villain here was probably the scientists with their doomsday predictions of exponential spread. Remember that Imperial College London projection that all the leaders were citing as gospel? (It was Science, don't you know? If you question it, you expose yourself as a science denier!) Turned out to be totally wrong. But it succeeded in panicking many of the politicians, so many vulnerable elderly people unnecessarily died as the result of the terrible decisions that panicking politicians made.
Absent the nursing home disaster, Sweden, Texas and Georgia all seem to have experienced similar sized peaks (in per million terms) in Covid deaths. The big difference is that Georgia and Texas experienced their peaks somewhat later. That's probably the result of the epidemiology. The disease originated in China, Trump closed the US to travel from China very early (and was excoriated as a "racist" for doing it) and the US seems to have been infected at second hand by travelers from Europe, which in turn had been infected by China. The disease seems to have gotten its first US foothold in New York City, where the disease spread rapidly due to crowding in places like the subway. The NYC city government was also slow in responding telling people to continue going out on the town and spending money.
And the disease spread around the US to the other American states, largely from NY. Generally speaking, the more rural a state is, the slower its peak. Probably because covid started as a big city disease and only gradually spread with travelers who had been infected in the big cities.
![[Image: Deaths-NY-TX-GA-Sweden-768x432.jpeg]](https://thefederalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Deaths-NY-TX-GA-Sweden-768x432.jpeg)
Cases per million - Deaths is probably a better indicator of the spread of this thing, since the number of cases is in some large part a function of testing. The more testing you do, the more cases you are likely to find. So apparently many of the new cases (which really seem to be spiking in Europe which is starting to panic again) are minor or even asymptomatic. Deaths don't seem to be spiking to nearly the same extent. And now that more vulnerable populations are being protected better, they probably won't.
Comparing US states that do and don't require masks doesn't show a tremendous amount of difference.
![[Image: Texas-vs-Georgia-768x432.jpeg]](https://thefederalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Texas-vs-Georgia-768x432.jpeg)
RE: Some Covid Comments - Syne - Nov 2, 2020
Pretty good summary. Deaths per million of population, while still rife with potential errors, is a much better metric than cases.
RE: Some Covid Comments - confused2 - Nov 2, 2020
Looking at Georgia State Advice (last modified 20th June 2020 and current) :
Preparing and Responding to COVID-19
..
Wear a face covering that covers your nose + mouth when you're in public settings.
..
( https://dph.georgia.gov/preparing-and-responding-covid-19 )
The graph actually comes from https://thefederalist.com under the heading
These 12 Graphs Show Mask Mandates Do Nothing To Stop COVID
( https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/29/these-12-graphs-show-mask-mandates-do-nothing-to-stop-covid/ )
The graph (below) reproduced from the OP shows "Georgia (No Masks)" - this might mean 'No mask mandate' but without further information about the actual number of people choosing to follow (or ignore) Georgia State advice the graph is meaningless and (quite likely) intentionally misleading.
It may be that fake news is more appealing than actual facts so people are choosing fake news.
/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Texas-vs-Georgia-768x432.jpeg
RE: Some Covid Comments - Syne - Nov 2, 2020
(Nov 2, 2020 09:12 AM)confused2 Wrote: The graph (below) reproduced from the OP shows "Georgia (No Masks)" - this might mean 'No mask mandate' but without further information about the actual number of people choosing to follow (or ignore) Georgia State advice the graph is meaningless and (quite likely) intentionally misleading.
It may be that fake news is more appealing than actual facts so people are choosing fake news.
Since "no masks" is compared to "requires masks" in that graph, and no mandate obviously doesn't mean "zero masks worn", any thinking adult should readily understand it. It's explicitly comparing the results of mandated and not mandated masks. And there are few, if any, state level studies of mask usage, and cities within a state can still have their own local mask mandates.
Learn a little critical reasoning before panicking about "fake news".
RE: Some Covid Comments - confused2 - Nov 2, 2020
Syne Wrote:any thinking adult should readily understand
..in a country where the majority believe in angels? Seen from the outside it looks very much like the the object of the game is to introduce or reinforce nonsense.
RE: Some Covid Comments - Secular Sanity - Nov 3, 2020
(Nov 2, 2020 11:28 PM)confused2 Wrote: ..in a country where the majority believe in angels? Seen from the outside it looks very much like the the object of the game is to introduce or reinforce nonsense.
Yeah, I hear ya. It's difficult to find facts nowadays, but Yazata's bit about the nursing homes makes sense, and the masks are just reducing the risk of getting it. It's kind of like covering your face in heavy smoke. You'd actually need a tight fitting N95 or P100 respirator.
And if we're the smoking gun.
RE: Some Covid Comments - confused2 - Nov 3, 2020
SS Wrote:Yeah, I hear ya. It's difficult to find facts nowadays, but Yazata's bit about the nursing homes makes sense, and the masks are just reducing the risk of getting it. It's kind of like covering your face in heavy smoke. You'd actually need a tight fitting N95 or P100 respirator.I worked in shops for 25 years - 12 with mostly female customers and 13 with mostly male. Dealing with male customers it was normal for at least one male a day to cough, sneeze or blow their nose without making any attempt to turn away. Over the 25 years I don't recall a female ever doing anything like that. I'm not going to wake Mrs C2 up just to check women behave differently though we did in the past discuss (and she confirmed) the way men behaved.
Maybe men think "If I've got a disease I'm going to make damn sure you get it too." and women think "If I've got a disease I'd like it to stop with me.". Syne?
If home made masks mean 10 people infect 9 people instead of 11 then they have done their job. N95 masks would be better but I suspect (at least in the UK) there still aren't enough for the general public to be encouraged to buy them.
RE: Some Covid Comments - Syne - Nov 3, 2020
(Nov 2, 2020 11:28 PM)confused2 Wrote:Again, fuck off ignorant foreigner. That you're head is so far up your own arse that you can't tell the difference between comparing apples to apples and traditional beliefs, it just goes to show how little you understand honest comparisons of data. So not only are you a moron, you're a bigot to boot. Still butt-hurt about losing your colonizing empire?Syne Wrote:any thinking adult should readily understand
..in a country where the majority believe in angels? Seen from the outside it looks very much like the the object of the game is to introduce or reinforce nonsense.
In the realm of honest comparisons, Sweden's beating your jerk-water country. No lockdowns or mask mandates versus pretty sever lockdowns and mandates. How do you square that?
(Nov 3, 2020 02:59 AM)confused2 Wrote: Maybe men think "If I've got a disease I'm going to make damn sure you get it too." and women think "If I've got a disease I'd like it to stop with me.". Syne?Men generally don't care about people giving them dirty looks and are generally less considerate. Nothing intentionally malicious about it. Women care a lot more about social acceptance, as a matter of their evolutionary psychology of survival.
But coughing and sneezing habits aren't likely a good analog for masking, unless you can should a comparable gender gap in both.
RE: Some Covid Comments - confused2 - Nov 3, 2020
Syne Wrote:No lockdowns or mask mandates versus pretty sever lockdowns and mandates [in the jerk UK]. How do you square that?UK citizens are more selfish and stupider than Swedish citizens (see Corvid-19 infection rate for confirmation). In fairness to the UK the high proportion of single households (or single adult with child) in Sweden gives them an advantage when dealing with a highly infectious disease.
Syne Wrote:But coughing and sneezing habits aren't likely a good analog for masking,If the virus didn't cause a cough do you think it would be as infectious as it has turned out to be?
Please try to be as honest as you can be when/if you choose to answer.
RE: Some Covid Comments - Secular Sanity - Nov 3, 2020
(Nov 3, 2020 02:59 AM)confused2 Wrote:SS Wrote:Yeah, I hear ya. It's difficult to find facts nowadays, but Yazata's bit about the nursing homes makes sense, and the masks are just reducing the risk of getting it. It's kind of like covering your face in heavy smoke. You'd actually need a tight fitting N95 or P100 respirator.I worked in shops for 25 years - 12 with mostly female customers and 13 with mostly male. Dealing with male customers it was normal for at least one male a day to cough, sneeze or blow their nose without making any attempt to turn away. Over the 25 years I don't recall a female ever doing anything like that. I'm not going to wake Mrs C2 up just to check women behave differently though we did in the past discuss (and she confirmed) the way men behaved.
Maybe men think "If I've got a disease I'm going to make damn sure you get it too." and women think "If I've got a disease I'd like it to stop with me.". Syne?
If home made masks mean 10 people infect 9 people instead of 11 then they have done their job. N95 masks would be better but I suspect (at least in the UK) there still aren't enough for the general public to be encouraged to buy them.
You’re probably right. Overall, women are somewhat more compassionate.
Off topic question: Do you think that gadflies are a necessary evil to keep forums alive?