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+--- Thread: Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born (/thread-8831.html)
Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born - C C - Jul 16, 2020
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53409521
EXCERPTS: The world is ill-prepared for the global crash in children being born which is set to have a "jaw-dropping" impact on societies, say researchers. Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century. And 23 nations - including Spain and Japan - are expected to see their populations halve by 2100. Countries will also age dramatically, with as many people turning 80 as there are being born.
[...] "That's a pretty big thing; most of the world is transitioning into natural population decline," researcher Prof Christopher Murray told the BBC. "I think it's incredibly hard to think this through and recognise how big a thing this is; it's extraordinary, we'll have to reorganise societies."
Why are fertility rates falling? It has nothing to do with sperm counts or the usual things that come to mind when discussing fertility. Instead it is being driven by more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception, leading to women choosing to have fewer children. In many ways, falling fertility rates are a success story.
[...] You might think this is great for the environment. A smaller population would reduce carbon emissions as well as deforestation for farmland. "That would be true except for the inverted age structure (more old people than young people) and all the uniformly negative consequences of an inverted age structure," says Prof Murray. ... Who pays tax in a massively aged world? Who pays for healthcare for the elderly? Who looks after the elderly? Will people still be able to retire from work? [...] Countries, including the UK, have used migration to boost their population and compensate for falling fertility rates. However, this stops being the answer once nearly every country's population is shrinking.
[...] The population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to treble in size to more than three billion people by 2100. And the study says Nigeria will become the world's second biggest country, with a population of 791 million. Prof Murray says: "We will have many more people of African descent in many more countries as we go through this. "Global recognition of the challenges around racism are going to be all the more critical if there are large numbers of people of African descent in many countries." (MORE - details)
RELATED: The Lancet: World population likely to shrink after mid-century, forecasting major shifts in global population and economic power