Crew Dragon News - Printable Version

Crew Dragon News - Printable Version

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Crew Dragon News - Yazata - Dec 8, 2019

Gwynne Shotwell just made some very interesting remarks on Friday.

https://spaceflightnow.com/2019/12/07/after-redesigns-the-finish-line-is-in-sight-for-spacexs-crew-dragon/

""We definitely learned a lot," Shotwell said Friday. "NASA warned us that crew is going to be 10 times harder than cargo. And I think that we were like, 10 times harder? What does that mean? What does that look like?"

In a discussion with reporters Friday at SpaceX's headquarters and factory in Hawthorne, California, Shotwell identified four main reasons for the Crew Dragon delays.

1. "We had an architecture that we wanted to fly and land propulsively," Shotwell said. "We thought it was the safest way to do it. Technically it was complex, and in addition, as NASA and SpaceX were going down this journey, it became clear to us it was going to be very difficult to certify that."

"So we pulled the plug on that technology. So we wasted time. We learned a lot, but we spent some time on that. In the end, if you pull that out, there are elements in the vehicle that you have to redesign."

2. The original Crew Dragon design had seats for seven astronauts. But NASA didn't like the angle of the seats.

"With this change and the angle of the seats, we could not get seven anymore," Shotwell said. "So now we only have four seats. That was kind of a big change for us."

3. The third thing is kind of obvious, the "anomaly"/explosion during the Crew Dragon static fire test. Sorting that out has added several months.

4. And lastly, the parachutes. Though they worked fine for the Demo1 mission that delivered Ripley and Little Earth to the Space Station, they experienced some problems during a supply flight in 2018.

"The fourth thing that's caused delays is the parachutes," Shotwell said.

"NASA had, since the Apollo program, a way of determining the loads in the risers on the parachutes," Shotwell said. "They made a conservative assumption ... from the Apollo program. We did it. Boeing did it. We were just following their standard."

But since the parachute problem noted with a supply Dragon in 2018, they put instruments on the risers to measure the actual loads.

"This riser is getting way more load than any of our models have ever predicted," she said. "So NASA's like, 'OK, this is good learning. So our way of analyzing margin has not been as robust as we thought.' You basically have to make the risers more robust, which makes the parachutes heavier and larger," she continued. "But the capsule is designed. I can't make the capsule bigger... Then we had to go to thinner canopy material, so it's been kind of trial and error."

"We're the ones that found this issue," Shotwell said. "I think we know parachutes better than anybody on the planet right now ... So we worked on the risers, we worked on the stitching, we worked on the canopy material."

"We have to close out the parachutes", she said. "We've flown seven cluster tests. We said we were going to fly 10, so we've got at least three to go. My guess is we're going to do more."

"We've got the in-flight abort to fly", she said. "We'll get data, analyze data, and make sure we're good ... We're on the range for that on Jan.4."

Bottom line, they seem to hope that they can get the manned DM-2 off by the end of February. But no guarantees.

Here's Gwynne:

RE: Crew Dragon News - C C - Dec 8, 2019

(Dec 8, 2019 01:03 AM)Yazata Wrote: ...Bottom line, they seem to hope that they can get the manned DM-2 off by the end of February. But no guarantees...

I'm sure NASA will find something more to nitpick before then. They've got bureaucratic standards of an ideal world to uphold.

"The Space Launch System (SLS) ... has been under development since the program formed in 2011. ... As of late 2015, the SLS program was stated to have a 70% confidence level for the first crewed Orion flight by 2023. ... The first flight of SLS has slipped multiple times, first to 2019, then to June 2020, then NASA administration scrapped the launch date."

RE: Crew Dragon News - Yazata - Dec 30, 2019

Elon just posted a truly beautiful animation of the first Crew Dragon manned flight, due to happen in the next few months.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1211493590456848385

The in-flight abort test which had been targeting Jan 4 is now more firmly scheduled for January 11.

The date of the actual DM-2 flight might be slipping. Elon was asked whether DM-2 is still on for February and replied:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1211497049906196480

"Crew Dragon should be physically ready & at the Cape in Feb, but completing all safety reviews will probably take a few more months"

So it sounds like it might not be until summer.

Elon adds:

"New technology development schedules tend to exhibit a version of Zeno's Paradox -- at any given point, you're halfway there"

They had better hurry, since the Cargo Dragon currently up at the Space Station is the second to last Cargo Dragon to fly. (The plan is to replace them on cargo flights with unmanned Crew Dragons.) Elon can't believe that Cargo Dragons have already been reliably flying to the Space Station for ten years.

And here's something kind of cool, an International Space Station photo showing a Cargo Dragon attached to the station, and just to the right of it, a dark patch on the Earth. This is the Moon's shadow, a recent solar eclipse.

[Image: EMv6mLOWoAUhHHN?format=jpg&name=4096x4096]

RE: Crew Dragon News - Yazata - Jan 9, 2020

Crew Dragon In-flight Abort Test has been pushed back again, it was Jan 4, then Jan 11, now Jan 18.

They say that the extra week gives them more time for "spacecraft processing".

How much NASA pixie dust does it need??

https://blogs.nasa.gov/commercialcrew/2020/01/06/spacex-in-flight-abort-test-launch-date-update-3/

Photo of the Crew Dragon destined for the in-flight abort:

[Image: Crew-Dragon-capsule-C205-IFA-prep-Jan-20...36x786.jpg]

RE: Crew Dragon News - Yazata - Jan 12, 2020

This morning they conducted the static fire for veteran booster B 1046, the first of the Block 5 Falcon 9 boosters and the booster to be used for the In-Flight Abort test scheduled for next Saturday, January 18. SpaceX verifies that the static fire went well.

https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1216022644614545409

Sadly, B 1046 is going to die doing this. Elon says that they tried to figure out a way to recover it, but it wasn't possible.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1216148212085428224

The sacrifice will be worth it, but...

https://twitter.com/muncaster_david/status/1216149158505017344

Viv asks: "Please respect its last wishes by releasing some sweet high-res footage afterwards"

Elon: "OK, tho could be gnarly"

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1216180364970004480

[Image: EOAnhvrWAAAmvta?format=jpg&name=4096x4096]

RE: Crew Dragon News - Yazata - Jan 17, 2020

The Inflight-abort is still 'Go' for Saturday morning. It will be streamed on NASA TV and Jim Bridenstine has the details:

https://twitter.com/JimBridenstine/status/1217853901334032385

7:45 AM EST (an ungodly 4:45 AM PST where I live... 12:45 UTC) NASA TV stream starts.

8:00 AM EST (5:00 AM PST, 13:00 UTC) planned launch

9:30 AM EST (6:30 AM PST 14:30 UTC) post-flight press conference

https://www.nasa.gov/nasalive

SpaceX will also be doing a stream, here:

https://www.spacex.com/webcast

There will be a pre-flight press conference tomorrow (Friday Jan 17) at 1 PM EST (10:00 AM PST, 18:00 UTC). It will be on NASA TV too.

And here's SpaceX's press kit:

https://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/in-flight_abort_test_press_kit.pdf

RE: Crew Dragon News - Yazata - Jan 17, 2020

Preflight press conference just concluded. Nothing really new.

The most interesting piece of news was that the Crew Dragon destined for the manned DM-2 mission is still at Hawthorne. It recently had its heat shield attached and underwent testing in a vacuum chamber. They say that they plan to deliver it from Hawthorne to Cape Canaveral around the end of the month. (They had originally said it should be there by the end on December.)

RE: Crew Dragon News - Yazata - Jan 18, 2020

B 1046 is vertical with the Crew Dragon atop it, in preparation for tomorrow morning's launch.

Even though there won't be any humans aboard for the in-flight abort test, both NASA and SpaceX are treating the preparations as if it was going to be a manned flight, in kind of a dress-rehearsal. I believe that the two astronauts are at the Cape and will put on their pressure suits and everything, just won't climb into the capsule. Ground crews and all the controllers working the consoles will act like it's a real launch.

RE: Crew Dragon News - Yazata - Jan 18, 2020

Launch pushed back to same time tomorrow, due to weather conditions at and near the Cape. Heavy clouds obscured visibility, and they say that their 'precipitation rule' was being broken - it was raining. (Interestingly, Vandenberg is always foggy, but they just launch anyway.) There was also concern about rough seas in the area in which the capsule was expected to fall and be recovered.

Tomorrow may not be any better, so they may push it back again.

RE: Crew Dragon News - C C - Jan 18, 2020

(Jan 18, 2020 02:08 PM)Yazata Wrote: Launch pushed back to same time tomorrow, due to weather conditions at and near the Cape. [...] Tomorrow may not be any better, so they may push it back again.

Typical first attempt fizzle. Tough luck to those severely affected (including or especially Hawaiians?). Good reason for not staying up any later or not getting up any earlier than normal, or temporarily setting aside early morning routine -- for those firsties requiring disagreeable time-zone adjustments for the viewer.