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+--- Thread: Article How not to detect warming acceleration (/thread-21625.html)
How not to detect warming acceleration - C C - Oct 20, 2026
https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/how-not-to-detect-warming-acceleration
EXCERPTS: Whether global warming has accelerated (and how much it has accelerated) is one of the livelier debates in climate science at the moment. The physical case for it is fairly strong [...] But showing that this speed-up is statistically distinguishable from the normal year-to-year wiggles of the climate has proven surprisingly hard.
A new paper by Jin and Pu in the journal npj Climate and Atmospheric Science argues that the data through 2025 now show a statistically significant doubling of the warming rate. I broadly agree with them that warming has sped up. But the method they use is problematic, and would find a significant acceleration in many simulated worlds where none exists. To start with, let’s look at the data... (MORE - missing details)