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Forecasters predict Democrats to take House but race for Senate hard to call - C C - Oct 15, 2026
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1147571
INTRO: In a forecasting special issue of PS: Political Science & Politics for the US midterm elections, all forecasters predict that the Democrats will capture the House of Representatives, but are split on who will emerge victorious in the Senate.
Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association (APSA), the special issue includes 17 studies showcasing a range of forecasting approaches and methodologies, from traditional political economy models to controversial betting markets and AI ‘synthetic personas’.
The US Congressional Midterm elections take place on 3 November 2026. They will see all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats contested, with control of Congress potentially decided by a handful of highly competitive races.
More broadly, the collection explores how political dynamics are reshaping both elections and the tools used to understand them, and asks whether traditional models can still make accurate predictions in a time of heightened polarisation and political change.
Dr John Kenny, co-Guest Editor of the special issue from the University of Mannheim and University of Southampton, said: “Midterm elections have historically seen the president’s party lose support, driven by economic concerns and falling approval ratings.
“But the political landscape in 2026 is somewhat atypical. Increased polarisation and widespread redistricting have introduced new uncertainties, creating challenges for predicting whether this election will follow established patterns or whether it will mark a significant shift in American politics.” (MORE - no ads)