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No, RCP8.5 did not become implausible because of climate policy - C C - May 19, 2026
RELATED (scivillage): On the death of RCP8
Roger Pielke Jr. isn't satisfied with just "winning", though. Rub it in...
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No, RCP8.5 did not become implausible because of climate policy
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/no-rcp85-did-not-become-implausible
EXCERPT: Each of these framings rests on a common logic: RCP8.5 once described a plausible trajectory; subsequent policy progress and technology cost trends moved the world away from it; therefore the scenario became implausible.3
This story, were it true, would be incredibly convenient for the climate science community. Rather than introducing a flawed scenario to the world that dominated climate science and policy for more than a decade — and then stubbornly defending it — this retelling characterizes the climate science community as near-infallible and heroic.
This story is not true. RCP8.5, and other extreme scenarios, were never plausible... (MORE - missing details)
RE: No, RCP8.5 did not become implausible because of climate policy - confused2 - May 28, 2026
As usual,I think he overstates his case .. with intent to mislead.#
As he says..
OP Wrote:The figure below shows that coal consumption as a proportion of the global energy mix started declining around 2013, while RCP8.5 had it steadily increasing.His point being that the people who drew up RCP8.5 weren't able to see even 13 years into the future.. so who would trust them over a hundred years. In reality the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is closely linked to radiative forcing .. which is the difference between heat gained and heat lost .. which is the best predictor we have of global temperature increase. Assuming any and all predictions hold for the next ten years (we're looking 75 years ahead) .. he seems happy with a global increase of 2,7C (4.8F). He isn't the kind of person I'd trust to look after a hamster for two days .. but clearly a lot of people admire his interpretation of honesty.
RE: No, RCP8.5 did not become implausible because of climate policy - Syne - May 28, 2026
I see no criticism of his take on RCP8.5 there (he didn't criticize all RCP scenarios). Was it forgotten, or was poisoning the well the whole point?