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+--- Thread: Threat of California’s native tree loss is greater than current estimates (/thread-20276.html)
Threat of California’s native tree loss is greater than current estimates - C C - Apr 25, 2026
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1125760
INTRO: From the scarecrow-like silhouettes of Joshua Tree National Park to the fog-shrouded Redwood Coast of Mendocino and Humboldt counties, California’s identity is deeply rooted in its trees. However, a new study led by researchers at the University of California, Santa Cruz, warns that these foundational species are in much more trouble than international conservation rankings estimate.
The study, published this morning in journal Global Change Biology, reveals that over the next century, California’s endemic and near-endemic trees are projected to lose between half and three-quarters of their climatically suitable habitat. Perhaps most strikingly, the research demonstrates that the trees’ current conservation status on the globally authoritative International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List don’t yet reflect this imminent risk.
Using “climate-informed” assessments, researchers from UC Santa Cruz’s Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology found that even under the most conservative climate-change forecasts, most species qualify for higher Red List threat levels than their current status. The Red List is the global authority on species extinction risk, but does not have the regulatory authority of U.S. federal or state endangered species laws.
One of these species is the blue oak, an iconic tree commonly found in California’s inland foothills and rangelands—as seen throughout the recently established Strathearn Ranch Natural Reserve in San Benito County.
Blue oaks are an important cultural and food species for many Indigenous tribes. Ranchers also depend on these trees because they provide shade for cattle and nutrient cycling. They stabilize soils to prevent erosion, keep carbon out of the atmosphere, and provide homes to hundreds of other animals—as well as improve property values.
“If you lose a blue oak woodland, you’ll generally be left with an invasive grassland,” said Blair McLaughlin, a climate change adaptation scientist at UC Santa Cruz and lead author of the study. “The old-growth blue oak woodlands have been here for centuries, so they are a connection to a time before the full impacts of European settlement.” (MORE - no ads)