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+--- Thread: Lichtman fails to predict correct outcome of election: 8 out of 10 now (/thread-16781.html)
Lichtman fails to predict correct outcome of election: 8 out of 10 now - C C - Nov 6, 2024
Allan Lichtman: “I am going to take some time off to assess why I was wrong”
https://www.washingtonian.com/2024/11/06/allan-lichtman-i-am-going-to-take-some-time-off-to-assess-why-i-was-wrong/
EXCERPTS: Election night 2024 was rough for a lot of people. One of them was Allan Lichtman. [...There was a...] groundswell of criticism about Lichtman’s predictions, his record, and his methodology. He engaged in a months-long feud with Nate Silver that, improbably, stretched until Tuesday.
I emailed Lichtman this morning to see if he wanted to talk about what he thinks went wrong. He thanked me and declined. “Thanks, Andrew,” he wrote. “But I am going to take some time off to assess why I was wrong and what the future holds for the country.”
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Allan Lichtman fails to predict correct outcome of election
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/06/allan-lichtman-presidential-election-prediction-wrong/76087715007/
EXCERPTS: Allan Lichtman, the historian who predicted 9 of the 10 last elections, failed to accurately predict who voters would chose to become the 47th President of the United States.
[...] At the end of a nearly six-hour podcast hosted by his son Samuel Lichtman Tuesday, the 77-year-old history professor said he was shocked at the election's outcome.
[...] "We will go on and are assessing last night’s results," he wrote. "Please tune in on Thursday at 9 PM Eastern for a discussion of what happened."
The famous prognosticator had said his '13 keys' system showed Harris would win.
[...] During the last hour, as Lichtman and his son analyzed votes in swing state Pennsylvania, his son called the election. "I think she lost," his son said during the last 10 minutes of the show.
"I do too," Lichtman immediately responded, then placed both hands to his temples. [...] "I can't believe it," his son said. "I'm kind of in shock right now." [...] His father responded, "It is hard to believe."
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Nostradamus pollster takes shot at Nate Silver over election excuses
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/nostradamus-pollster-takes-shot-at-nate-silver-over-election-excuses/ar-AA1tDjY9
EXCERPTS: Allan Lichtman, a famed election forecaster and historian who predicted a Harris win, made an X post conceding to his wrong guess-- but not without a swipe at Nate Silver, another election forecaster.
"Unlike Nate Silver, who will try to squirm out of why he didn’t see the election coming, I admit that I was wrong."
Silver, a statistician who builds his predictions on polling and other data points like voter turnout, pulled his prediction model at around 10:30 p.m. on Tuesday, citing that it wasn’t “capturing the story of this election night well.”
[...] Silver’s model predicted an incredibly close race. He, and wrote an opinion piece in The New York Times at the end of October saying his gut is predicting a Trump win.
“But I don’t think you should put any value whatsoever on anyone’s gut—including mine,“ Silver wrote. ”Instead, you should resign yourself to the fact that a 50-50 forecast really does mean 50-50.”
This isn‘t the first time the two have feuded. In September, Lichtman posted that Silver “doesn’t know how to turn the keys.”
[...] The next day, Silver posted that ... “Lichtman is comically overconfident and doesn’t own up to the subjectivities in his method,”
[...] Silver stayed off of X for a majority of Election Night, but posted on the Silver Bulletin that he felt like Trump was going to win.
“That article I wrote for The New York Times was misinterpreted as my secret ‘prediction’ for Trump,” Silver wrote. ”As much as I’d like to take credit for it, it wasn’t. The whole point, right there in the headline, was that I didn’t trust anyone’s gut when it comes to presidential elections."
RE: Lichtman fails to predict correct outcome of election: 8 out of 10 now - Yazata - Nov 15, 2024
https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1855691627118961139
RE: Lichtman fails to predict correct outcome of election: 8 out of 10 now - C C - Nov 15, 2024
(Nov 15, 2024 08:53 PM)Yazata Wrote: https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1855691627118961139
Poor souls. But they did have something of an excuse for being naïve, overconfident and unprepared in 2015-16. Not so the 3rd time around, unless Trump's loss in 2020 made them believe they could coast with lesser effort again (the bombardment certainly didn't appear to be less).
Needless to say, the title of this thread should have been "... nine out of eleven now" (for Lichtman).