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+--- Thread: Why China is tanking its economy on purpose (Peter Hartcher interview) (/thread-15905.html)
Why China is tanking its economy on purpose (Peter Hartcher interview) - C C - May 21, 2024
https://youtu.be/hVzN05E-3d4
AUDIO EXCERPTS: Xi Jinping is becoming more and more controlling in every area of government policy, including the economy. So he has curbed the real estate sector, and the growth and the speculation. He has also curbed the private sector. He is making an example out of the biggest and most successful entrepreneurs in the country, some of them have ended up in jail.
Imprisoning for corruption is usually the pretext for other motives. In this case, it was to send a message: "I am in charge, the state is in control, and the Communist Party is in control of the state. The private sector should knuckle down and do what you are told. You're getting too cheeky, you're getting too ambitious, and you're getting too much freedom, moving too much capital around."
[...] Foreign executives, foreign businesses, have got the hint. Many have left, others have scaled back their plans for investment in China.
What is the bigger picture, why is he doing all this stuff?
Partly it's because of the impulse for control, that is inherent in all autocrats. But he is particularly prone to that because he is anticipating a war or major security crisis in the near future.
He talks about this pretty openly. When he visits military bases, he routinely tells the troops to prepare to fight and win wars. He tells them to put all your efforts into preparation for war.
Don't worry about all the business enterprises you guys have been enjoying and running little corruption scams for. This is about war.
He talks in public speeches about extreme circumstances that are heading China's way. He talks in prophetic terms about a clash with the global hegemon -- meaning of course, the US. He has talked about extreme storms that China is going to have to confront.
The thinking is that if China has economic problems, if there are vulnerabilities in the system, he wants to address them now in a controlled way. So that when they have the crisis, they have the war, then China won't have uncontrolled crises that distract and create problems, and open vulnerabilities.
It's what Xi Jinping wanted Western investors to look at and go: "Oh, it's terrible, you know. We can't put up with that. There's got to be massive investment, and new stimulus coming, and China's going to bounce back to their old 9% growth rate."
But no. There has been no traditional mass stimulus. There is no plan for that. Because Xi Jinping wants it tidy. He wants it controlled. He wants it battened down for a crisis that he is expecting, and may even help precipitate...
Peter Hartcher on why China is tanking its economy on purpose
RE: Why China is tanking its economy on purpose (Peter Hartcher interview) - Zinjanthropos - May 22, 2024
I would think the last thing a person in control wants is to lose it, or take on a huge risk that threatens it. Unless you’re insane like a certain dictator we’ve heard of. Don’t think number of soldiers or fighters you have makes a hill of beans difference in a war fought with WMD. Let your enemy destroy itself from within and maybe help it happen. Do you think US is public enemy #1? Russia despite being chummy with Vlad? Beware the Muslim horde? Why not the rest of the world?
RE: Why China is tanking its economy on purpose (Peter Hartcher interview) - C C - May 23, 2024
(May 22, 2024 12:21 PM)Zinjanthropos Wrote: I would think the last thing a person in control wants is to lose it, or take on a huge risk that threatens it. Unless you’re insane like a certain dictator we’ve heard of.
Apparently he expects trouble stemming from his desire to take back Taiwan (i.e., maybe he truly plans to do it rather than just posture), and from China's expansion of air/naval bases in the East China Sea, along with military exercises cooperatively performed elsewhere in the world with other countries (like Bangladesh), continued tensions with India, etc.
Quote:Don’t think number of soldiers or fighters you have makes a hill of beans difference in a war fought with WMD. Let your enemy destroy itself from within and maybe help it happen. Do you think US is public enemy #1? Russia despite being chummy with Vlad? Beware the Muslim horde? Why not the rest of the world?
The bane of the Russia/Ukraine conflict may be that it has generated the specious appearance that classic warfare can be conducted between the West and anti-West without apocalypse entering the picture. That the encroached-upon party or its superior supporters (if it's a non-nuclear country) are too afraid to respond with nuclear weapons, and thereby will tolerate a prolonged situation of conventional engagement. It's become a game of Chicken, where the aggressive side has become overly confident that the other side will yield when it comes to a nuclear or other extreme response.