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+--- Thread: Virus evolution — debunking anti-vaccine myth that they become less virulent (/thread-11594.html)
Virus evolution — debunking anti-vaccine myth that they become less virulent - C C - Jan 18, 2022
https://www.skepticalraptor.com/skepticalraptorblog.php/virus-evolution-debunking-anti-vaccine-myth-that-they-become-less-virulent/
INTRO: Apparently, a 125-year-old debunked idea about virus evolution has circulated around the anti-vaccine world. They believe that if viruses are left on their own, they always evolve to become less virulent to humans. That’s why they falsely claim that the Omicron variant is almost nothing and very soon SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, will evolve into something that we can ignore.
The old Skeptical Raptor is going to take a deep breath and hope he doesn’t lose any brain cells repeating that to all of you. Anti-vaxxers and COVID-19 deniers are wrong, completely and utterly wrong. It’s as if they never took a class on virology, evolution, or anything else germane to the discussion.
I know that any of you spending time reading this article are already listing out a dozen things that debunk this myth. Because we all know that first, that’s not how evolution works, and second, there are dozens of viruses that are known from the dawn of human history that have remained virulent over thousands of years.
Let’s take a look at this nonsense. Maybe I’ll give you some information to debunk some anti-vaxxer or COVID-19 denier nonsense... (MORE - details)
RE: Virus evolution — debunking anti-vaccine myth that they become less virulent - Syne - Jan 18, 2022
1. Most anti-vaxxers (defined as people who are against ALL vaccines, not just COVID vaccines) are the leftist, organic, non-GMO crowd. Being duped by these people claiming a "religious exemption" to avoid vaccines is just lazy.
But as the “anti-vaxxer” movement appears on the national stage and documentaries like Vaxxed gain support from movie stars like Robert De Niro, the risks it poses to the health of the country are no longer hypothetical.
...
Earlier this month, DeNiro and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. participated in a press conference discussing the dangers of vaccines and offered a staggering $100,000 to anyone who can prove the controversial theory.
https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-anti-vaxxer/
The poll also shows more Democrats (9 percent) and independents (10 percent) say the measles vaccine isn't safe than Republicans who say the same (5 percent). These differences are well within the margin of error, but the aforementioned Pew poll showed Republicans were more likely than Democrats to say vaccines should be a matter of choice.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/02/09/heres-how-many-americans-are-actually-anti-vaxxers/
2. Creationism isn't pseudoscience, because creationism doesn't pretend to be science at all. Pretending "creation scientist" isn't a straw man is intellectually lazy. No definition of creationism denies that is it a "religious belief."
3. Myth?
“If you think about a virus, what’s the purpose? What’s the virus trying to do?” asks Jared Auclair, who is an associate teaching professor of chemistry and chemical biology at Northeastern, leads the Biopharmaceutical Analysis Training Lab, and runs the university’s COVID-19 testing facility, the Life Sciences Testing Center in Burlington, Massachusetts.
It’s trying to stay alive, he says. And “if the virus kills someone, if it kills the host, it dies with the host. So it totally defeats the purpose.”
Because the goal of a virus is to survive, replicate, and spread, it tends to evolve toward being more infectious and less deadly. There are exceptions and other factors, but in general, says Auclair, that’s what virologists expect to see occur with SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.
https://news.northeastern.edu/2021/12/13/virus-evolution/
4. "Omicron appears to be more virulent"??
Omicron infections are associated with a 91% reduction in risk of death compared to the Delta variant, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday, citing a new Kaiser Permanente Southern California study.
The big picture: The study also showed that Omicron infections were also associated with a 74% reduction in risk of going to the ICU, as well as a 53% reduction in risk of being hospitalized, Rochelle Walensky said.
https://www.axios.com/cdc-omicron-death-delta-variant-covid-959f1e3a-b09c-4d31-820c-90071f8e7a4f.html
So this article sounds a lot like agenda hypocritically masquerading as "the science."
RE: Virus evolution — debunking anti-vaccine myth that they become less virulent - Zinjanthropos - Jan 18, 2022
Sounds like the more virulent viruses are more likely to keep making the Banzai charge. Doesn’t make sense to me to repeatedly put survival at risk when there’s an alternative. Waving the white flag, coexisting and surviving makes more sense to me. Not sure about the article and I’m all in for being vaccinated.
Maybe I’m reading this wrong: from article
Whatever new trait through a mutation gives the virus a better chance to survive, reproduce, and spread will be selected for and will become predominant.
Is the article a religious rant?
RE: Virus evolution — debunking anti-vaccine myth that they become less virulent - Syne - Jan 18, 2022
Seems to be primarily motivated by anti-religious animus.
RE: Virus evolution — debunking anti-vaccine myth that they become less virulent - confused2 - Jan 18, 2022
Main point of the OP is viruses evolve randomly rather than to become less virulent. Omicron being more/less virulent doesn't prove or disprove the proposition - it is a red herring.
Syne Wrote:And let's not forget the anti-vax sentiments for the same vaccine developed under Trump, that they now laud.
Apparently some people now in favour of vaccination were suspicious of anything involving Trump.
Edit:I've added 'Personality'
Let's list some of Trump's qualities:
1/ Educated
2/ Sane
3/ Personality
4/ Intelligent
5/ Integrity
For convenience ESII.
I have no opinion but anyone with any doubts about Trump's ESPII score would probably tend to avoid a vaccine developed under him. Syne's opinion of other people's opinion of Trump's ESPII score looks like a red herring to me.
Creationists probably think 'others' have a fail in the ESPII department and vice versa. Possibly a herring but I'm not sure what colour it would be.
We've got very good at keeping people with covid alive so the argument that it would evolve to be non-fatal doesn't apply at this stage - even if were a valid argument in the first place. Another red herring.
RE: Virus evolution — debunking anti-vaccine myth that they become less virulent - Syne - Jan 18, 2022
(Jan 18, 2022 06:17 PM)confused2 Wrote: Main point of the OP is viruses evolve randomly rather than to become less virulent.Since no one has claimed otherwise, the OP is attacking a straw man. Some diseases do become less virulent, sometimes in tandem with becoming more transmissible. Now, plenty of people have said that our greatest hope is that COVID becomes less virulent, and just endemic, like the flu. But no one denies that the flu still kills tens of thousands of people, in the US alone, every year. The flu found it's niche in which to survive.
Considering the lack of vaccine efficacy for Omicron, it's even possible that it evolved to evade previous vaccines. That would be a win for vaccine proponents (except they are no longer effective) and a win for those hoping it to become less virulent (which should be everyone).
Quote:Omicron being more/less virulent doesn't prove or disprove the proposition - it is a red herring.Omicron, becoming the dominate variant (and if it's as minimally virulent as all evidence currently suggests), could definitely indicate the direction in which the virus is evolving...randomly, without any predetermined direction toward less virulence.
An Omicron oddity: The number of cases doesn’t predict the number of deaths
Looking at daily death rates in the U.K. from May 15 — essentially from the point at which the Delta wave began — to Sept. 15, there is a highly statistically significant relationship between daily new cases and deaths. In short, case rates accurately predict death rates.
But beginning the analysis on Sept. 15, coinciding with flattening of the Delta curve and the onset of Omicron, shows no statistical relationship between Covid-19 case rates and deaths.
In earlier waves, rising death rates would follow an increase in cases; the impact of rising cases on death rates could be seen visually and validated statistically. Deaths would follow cases upward, and peak roughly two to three weeks after new cases began trending downward. With Omicron, however, we not only don’t see the rise in death rates that were associated with the first waves, but we actually see a continuing decline in death rates, despite a radical increase in cases.
https://www.statnews.com/2021/12/22/omicron-oddity-case-numbers-dont-predict-deaths/
People shouldn't mistake wishful thinking for definitive scientific claims, like the OP seems to be doing.
Quote:Yes, many Democrats were skeptical and fearmongering of any vaccine developed under Trump. The exact same vaccines they demand people take..or else.Syne Wrote:And let's not forget the anti-vax sentiments for the same vaccine developed under Trump, that they now laud.
Apparently some people now in favour of vaccination were suspicious of anything involving Trump.
Quote:Edit:I've added 'Personality'Yes, let's.
Let's list some of Trump's qualities:
1/ Educated
2/ Sane
3/ Personality
4/ Intelligent
5/ Integrity
1. Regardless of any formal education, Trump has a lifetime of proven ability, even if only as a consummate flimflam man.
2. Has narcissism been defined as insanity? If so, Obama was no better.
3. He seemed like a funny and affable guy with an ability to lead and inspire others...if you're not a pearl-clutching pussy.
4. IQ obviously isn't the sole measure of success.
5. Well, he's been to only president in recent history to make good on so many of his campaign promises.
Quote:I have no opinion but anyone with any doubts about Trump's ESPII score would probably tend to avoid a vaccine developed under him. Syne's opinion of other people's opinion of Trump's ESPII score looks like a red herring to me.Compared to Joe Biden, who is obviously suffering from mental deterioration. So we have to either believe that people were put at ease by someone who's obviously senile, most those people haven't paid enough attention to even be aware of Joe's mental state, or they've just been duped this whole time by Democrats playing politics.
Quote:Creationists probably think 'others' have a fail in the ESPII department and vice versa. Possibly a herring but I'm not sure what colour it would be.Now you're just being an ignorant troll. I've cited plenty of legit info for you to know better, if you could be bothered.
We've got very good at keeping people with covid alive so the argument that it would evolve to be non-fatal doesn't apply at this stage - even if were a valid argument in the first place. Another red herring.