Sep 22, 2019 03:47 PM
https://theweek.com/articles/866339/lose-job-robot
EXCERPT: . . . Law firms now use artificial intelligence (AI) — sophisticated computer programs that can learn from experience — to conduct contract analysis, hunt for client conflicts, and even craft litigation strategy. McDonald's is replacing drive-thru workers with order-taking AI, and cashiers with self-checkout kiosks. Walmart is automating truck unloading, while California farms are employing robots to harvest lettuce. From 1990 to 2007, robots replaced about 670,000 U.S. jobs [...] by 2030 robots will have forced 16 million to 54 million Americans — as many as a third of U.S. workers — to retrain for a new job.
What jobs are most at risk? Generally speaking, those involving repetitive physical tasks in predictable environments. ... The Palm Beach County Court recently began using four robots ... to read court filings, fill out docket sheets, and input data into its case management system. In theory, at least 91 percent of a short-order cook's tasks can be automated using existing technology. It's 100 percent for a dredge operator, plasterer, stucco mason, motion picture projectionist, and logging equipment operator.
Conversely, jobs that involve managing people, creative thinking, and social interaction will see less automation. But even the jobs you'd think are safe aren't. The Guardian Australia newspaper published its first article this year written entirely by a computer. The Indian e-commerce site Myntra recently created one of its best-selling T-shirts by delegating the design to two algorithms that analyzed previous designs and invented new ones. Sales of AI-designed shirts are "growing at 100 percent," said Ananth Narayanan, Myntra's CEO. "It's working."
History has shown that previous apocalyptic warnings about technology wiping out the need for human labor have proved untrue ... So will the impact be modest? Not necessarily. The futurist Martin Ford acknowledges the "long record of false alarms," but argues that this time is different. The pace of automation, he says, is no longer linear, but exponential, like the growth in computing capacity predicted by Moore's Law. The economy, Ford says, will not have time to create new professions to absorb the tens of millions of workers displaced by automation. By some estimates, America is less than a decade away from autonomous vehicles — and yet 3.5 million Americans still work as truck drivers. White-collar jobs are also at risk for the first time, Ford says. On Wall Street, the number of financial workers has already plunged by 50,000 since 2000, as computers can process 100,000 transactions in a tenth of a second. Radiologists may lose their job analyzing medical images. Displaced workers might find new jobs, but at much lower salaries. (MORE)
EXCERPT: . . . Law firms now use artificial intelligence (AI) — sophisticated computer programs that can learn from experience — to conduct contract analysis, hunt for client conflicts, and even craft litigation strategy. McDonald's is replacing drive-thru workers with order-taking AI, and cashiers with self-checkout kiosks. Walmart is automating truck unloading, while California farms are employing robots to harvest lettuce. From 1990 to 2007, robots replaced about 670,000 U.S. jobs [...] by 2030 robots will have forced 16 million to 54 million Americans — as many as a third of U.S. workers — to retrain for a new job.
What jobs are most at risk? Generally speaking, those involving repetitive physical tasks in predictable environments. ... The Palm Beach County Court recently began using four robots ... to read court filings, fill out docket sheets, and input data into its case management system. In theory, at least 91 percent of a short-order cook's tasks can be automated using existing technology. It's 100 percent for a dredge operator, plasterer, stucco mason, motion picture projectionist, and logging equipment operator.
Conversely, jobs that involve managing people, creative thinking, and social interaction will see less automation. But even the jobs you'd think are safe aren't. The Guardian Australia newspaper published its first article this year written entirely by a computer. The Indian e-commerce site Myntra recently created one of its best-selling T-shirts by delegating the design to two algorithms that analyzed previous designs and invented new ones. Sales of AI-designed shirts are "growing at 100 percent," said Ananth Narayanan, Myntra's CEO. "It's working."
History has shown that previous apocalyptic warnings about technology wiping out the need for human labor have proved untrue ... So will the impact be modest? Not necessarily. The futurist Martin Ford acknowledges the "long record of false alarms," but argues that this time is different. The pace of automation, he says, is no longer linear, but exponential, like the growth in computing capacity predicted by Moore's Law. The economy, Ford says, will not have time to create new professions to absorb the tens of millions of workers displaced by automation. By some estimates, America is less than a decade away from autonomous vehicles — and yet 3.5 million Americans still work as truck drivers. White-collar jobs are also at risk for the first time, Ford says. On Wall Street, the number of financial workers has already plunged by 50,000 since 2000, as computers can process 100,000 transactions in a tenth of a second. Radiologists may lose their job analyzing medical images. Displaced workers might find new jobs, but at much lower salaries. (MORE)