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It's become increasingly clear that SpaceX is indeed building a second huge Megabay at Starbase. (It's been speculated for several weeks.)

Here's a photo taken yesterday by Mauricio of RGV Aerial Photography from directly above, showing that a great deal of foundation work has been done atop the deep piles seen being drilled earlier. Lots of rebar in place, wooden forms to go in next, then a giant concrete pour, looks to me. This is dug down into the ground about six feet, with the many piles visible all around. The squares in the upper left and right corners are believed to be where the bottom of elevator shafts will go.

Even though SpaceX has yet to launch their first Starship, they are already perfecting their manufacturing process Tesla-style to manufacture spaceships in quantity.

The old way of building Starships was to construct them in two halves, which were then mated. Difficulties with doing things that way included having to re-rig the bridge crane on top of the High Bay so as to pick up both the nose and ring sections. Another difficulty was needing multiple welding robots at different heights in the construction bay.

The new way of building Starships starts with the nose, which is all the bridge crane directly lifts. It lifts the nose and what is directly under the nose (the payload bay section) is slipped under and a robot does the welding. Then that combined unit is lifted and the next section down is rolled under and welded on. this is done over and over until the bottom thrust section. The crane never has to be disconnected and re-rigged and one robot can do the whole thing.

The Ring Watchers are all over it

https://twitter.com/RingWatchers/status/...6732508162

Ryan Hansen Space has recruited an all-star cast of motion picture animators to produce a movie entitled O.F.T. about Starship's first Orbital Flight Test. (I don't know how long it will be. It will be streaming free on Youtube, not in theaters.) This is a labor of love with these guys.

People like Corey Bass are involved, and if you saw his reenactment video of the first Apollo lunar landing, you know how good he is.

It should be out Friday. I'm looking forward to seeing it.

Very appropriate time for it to be released too, given that the real OFT-1 is expected around the end of next month.

Here's the trailer

A Dutch space enthusiast who calls himself DutchSatellites on Twitter posted that his belief is that the FAA is finishing up the Starship launch licence and that it should be issued in less than a fortnight.

In reply, Washington Post aviation and space reporter Christian Davenport wrote:

"This tracks with what i've heard. Unless there's an unforseen problem, SpaceX should have the launch license for the Starship debut launch by April 14, or thereabouts. Then again, there always could be last minute checks that cause delays."

I think that most of us have learned from experience that the Washington Post isn't entirely trustworthy when they cite anonymous sources. But Christian Davenport is a good reporter with a proven track record.

So I'm not 100% convinced and this news certainly has to be taken with a huge grain of salt, but I do think that it's very hopeful.

Assuming that SpaceX does get their launch license around the middle of April, the question then is how quickly they could get ready to launch. My guess (nothing more than that) is that a launch probably won't happen before the beginning of May. (Best case...) Then we will have to expect various scrubs and postponements for weather and technical reasons.

But I'm starting to get my hopes up that it gets off before summer.

https://twitter.com/wapodavenport/status...9257516049

Extraordinarily good animation and original score. They depict more success than I actually expect (it will be lucky to make it to orbit) but the reentry they show is likely what will happen if it does make it to orbit.

About 20 minutes long and well worth a watch. The only thing better will be the real thing in about a month (hopefully)!

Rumors are swirling tonight that the FAA may issue a Starship launch licence in just a few days and that notams (flight restrictions) will be issued for both near Hawaii and east of Boca Chica for April 6-12.

I don't know the source of the rumors or how credible they are, but people I respect are taking it seriously, so it's apparently going around in the aviation community.

Ship 24 was rolled back to the pad tonight and it's expected to be stacked on Booster 7 in the next few days.

There does seem to be some evidence to support the April 6-12 launch window. The navy has put out marine safety warnings for the Gulf of Mexico on those dates, citing "rocket launch" and "space debris":

Edit I'm skeptical about it, since from the format it appears to come from msi.nga.mil and I just did a search there and couldn't find it. So I suspect it's somebody's "April fool" thing.

(Apr 1, 2023 08:28 AM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]Rumors are swirling tonight that the FAA may issue a Starship launch licence in just a few days and that notams (flight restrictions) will be issued for both near Hawaii and east of Boca Chica for April 6-12.

I don't know the source of the rumors or how credible they are, but people I respect are taking it seriously, so it's apparently going around in the aviation community.

Ship 24 was rolled back to the pad tonight and it's expected to be stacked on Booster 7 in the next few days.

There does seem to be some evidence to support the April 6-12 launch window. The navy has put out marine safety warnings for the Gulf of Mexico on those dates, citing "rocket launch" and "space debris":

Edit I'm skeptical about it, since from the format it appears to come from msi.nga.mil and I just did a search there and couldn't find it. So I suspect it's somebody's "April fool" thing.

The US Navy Maritime Safety Information page has been updated and it indeed contains the text in the post above:

https://msi.nga.mil/api/publications/dow...yMemIV.txt

Here's more confirmation of the rumored early launch date. It's an FAA heads-up to air traffic controllers

Scroll down near the bottom and it says

SPACEX STARSHIP SUPERHEAVY BOCA CHICA TX

PRIMARY 4/10/23
BACKUPS 4/11-12/23

https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis...%2F04%2F23

At this point, the FAA still hasn't issued the required launch license. Still no notams and flight restrictions posted.

(Apr 4, 2023 04:51 PM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ][...] Here's more confirmation of the rumored early launch date!!! It's an FAA heads-up to air traffic controllers

Scroll down near the bottom and it says

SPACEX STARSHIP SUPERHEAVY BOCA CHICA TX

PRIMARY 4/10/23
BACKUPS 4/11-12/23

https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_otherdis...%2F04%2F23

At this point, the FAA still hasn't issued the required launch license. Still no notams and flight restrictions posted.

Well, if it couldn't be on April Fool's Day, then I guess post-Easter is better than nothing. (Though you know those FAA lackeys will probably hold back to botch that week, too.)

If Starship 24/7 fails whenever they launch it (a very real probability) Starbase has plenty of backup spaceships to continue the development campaign. (Ten additional ships and seven boosters at various stages of construction!) They aren't just developing spaceships, they are developing the techniques and tooling for serial production of spaceships in large numbers.

Below is a graphic prepared by the Ringwatchers showing the current Starship construction status at Starbase. (Brendan Lewis used to do these status update graphics and I suppose he still is, except now he's been conscripted into the Ringwatchers who support his efforts.)

Ship 24: complete, at launch site slated for first flight
Ship 25: complete, being cryo-tested at Masseys
Ship 26: complete, this is one of the weird finless, heat-shieldless ships, the 'silver bullets'. Receiving engines at Sanchez.
Ship 27: another weird silver-bullet in the Highbay, pretty much complete except for engines.
Ship 28: this is a normal ship with fins, in the Highbay, largely assembled except for bottom thrust section
Ship 29: most of the parts have been spotted but it isn't stacked and assembled yet
Ship 30: like ship 29, most of the pieces spotted but not assembled yet. Still needs its common dome sleeved
Ship 31: some of its pieces spotted
Ship 32: same
Ship 33: same
Ship 34: just its nosecone spotted

The same thing is true for boosters.

B7: is on the orbital launch mount in anticipation of OFT-1.
(B8: was scrapped)
B9: is complete in the Megabay
B10: is complete except for engines in the Megabay
B11: is being assembled in the Megabay. Most of its pieces have been spotted
B12: some pieces have been spotted
B13: same
B14: same
B15: same

Lots of LOX arriving at the Orbital Tank Farm

(Photo by Epic Spaceflight)

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The FAA has issued a statement that their advisory to Air Traffic Controllers should not be interpreted to mean that issuance of a launch license is immanent. The FAA says they will issue the license when SpaceX satisfies all of the FAA's conditions.

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Christian Davenport of the Washington Post says that his "sources" tell him that next Monday remains a possibility. FAA's safety evaluation is complete, but legal evaluation isn't complete yet. Reportedly there's an "environmental issue" that needs to be closed out. Davenport thinks the license is "almost there".

https://twitter.com/wapodavenport/status...0270919680