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It just became a hurricane over the weekend, but is expected to strengthen rapidly. Ir's already well-formed with a distinct eye, with sustained winds of over 100 mph.

Predicting its precise path is kind of speculative, but it seems to be headed directly towards North Carolina. Expected to hit shore with major Category 4 hurricane strength on Thursday.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI...1450.shtml

Virginia, North and South Carolina have declared emergencies and are readying their National Guard troops, preparing emergency responses etc. Evacuations have been ordered starting noon today for North Carolina's Outer Banks, the narrow sandy islands off the state's coast. Grocery and home improvement stores in all three states are reportedly mobbed as residents get ready. Extensive flooding is expected as storm surge forces its way up rivers in the Tidewater areas. Rain will be heavy too, so runoff will just collide with the storm surge and rivers will almost certainly leave their banks.

https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/new...h-carolina

The US Navy has started sending all of its ships currently in the Norfolk VA Atlantic Fleet naval base (some 30 of them, including a Japanese destroyer currently there for exercises) out to sea, since warships ride out major storms better when they are underway than when they are tied up at piers.

https://news.usni.org/2018/09/10/navy-wi...e-florence



Edit: The storm has strengthened to a Category 4. Additional evacuations of coastal areas have been ordered, even though it's not due to hit until Thursday. FEMA is prepositioning relief supplies at Ft. Bragg (a huge Army base in NC, home of the 82'd Airborne and Army Special Forces, among many other things).

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic...s#contents

Two words: Flood insurance.

As of Wednesday, models show it turning left just short of the coast, meaning that it will move down the coast from North Carolina to South Carolina very slowly all day Friday. Virginia seems to be out of the crosshairs.

They expect it to weaken from major hurricane strength when it arrives off the southern NC coast Thursday night to weaker hurricane strength off the northern SC coast. But... it will be pushing storm surge onto the coast for a full day.

Then it's expected to make a right turn and pass over the SC capital of Columbia at tropical storm strength. By the time it reaches the western tip of SC it will be just a big rainstorm. But that will still be dangerous since it will be producing lots of rain which might produce dangerous flash-flooding and mudslide conditions in the southern Appalachians..

It now looks like a lot of rain might end up falling in Georgia. That state has joined VA, NC and SC in announcing a state of emergency and has started emergency preparations.

Of course all of this could change quickly and the path may be different tomorrow.

Channel 11 in Raleigh NC is saying: "Because of the slow movement, there is the likelihood of historic rain accumulations ... with totals of 8 to 16 inches... with a possible maximum of 40 inches along and north of whatever path Florence takes. That storm maximum will not cover the entire state, but with the uncertainty of where it could occur, we need to cover for that just about anywhere. Flooding could be historic and catastrophic. Between flash flooding and longer duration river flooding, some areas may be cut off... Washed out and flooded roadways could isolate some communities..." Reisdents of the affected areas are being warned to expect a long period without electrical power.

Somebody upstairs in the executive suite must like the Carolinas, since this thing seems to be weakening dramatically before it hits shore. It's now a category 2 and falling. Predicted storm tracks now have it coming ashore before it turns south, so that will weaken it more.

So it looks like wind and storm surge will be considerably reduced from what was feared a day or two ago. The big fear now seems to be excessive rain.

Projections now have it turning northeast after it passes over the length of SC and moving all the way up the Appalachians into the northeast as a rain storm. So there may be destructive flooding in the narrow mountain valleys where towns in that region seem to be located.

(Sep 13, 2018 06:09 PM)Yazata Wrote: [ -> ]Somebody upstairs in the executive suite must like the Carolinas, since this thing seems to be weakening dramatically before it hits shore. It's now a category 2 and falling. towns in that region seem to be located. Predicted storm tracks now have it coming ashore before it turns south, so that will weaken it more.

Came across an article I can't track down anymore about some religious celebrity who claimed to have the power to diminish the degree of hurricane strength or damage via prayer. Didn't work so well the last time, and I didn't read the details of whatever reformed approach she had taken regarding Florence for this evangelistic opportunism.

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I can't wait to see all the famous newscasters with their messed up hair standing out in the wind and rain bringing us the story of this storm live. I take a sort of sadistic pleasure in it.

(Sep 13, 2018 07:40 PM)Magical Realist Wrote: [ -> ]I can't wait to see all the famous newscasters with their messed up hair standing out in the wind and rain bringing us the story of this storm live. I take a sort of sadistic pleasure in it.

Me too. (Anderson Cooper on CNN never saw a hurricane that he didn't want to go stand in.)

Turn on the Weather Channel, MR. Their newscasters are already doing it. It's been pretty intense at times along the southern NC coast. But nothing close to what they were predicting a couple of days ago: (the Apocalypse, a once-in-a-lifetime storm, get-away-from-the-coast-if-you-want-to-live).

Ha haaaaa...So busted!

https://www.facebook.com/edward.parker.9...CSM7yQ_dJQ

(Sep 15, 2018 01:44 AM)Magical Realist Wrote: [ -> ]Ha haaaaa...So busted!

https://www.facebook.com/edward.parker.9...CSM7yQ_dJQ

Hopefully the inability to hear what he's saying is a defect of the video or this browser, rather than yet another facet of the facade.

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