Scivillage.com Casual Discussion Science Forum

Don't worry about this putative "wealth" coming to the country. Burnham will back down as soon as Extinction Rebellion and other activist groups become outraged.
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Donald Trump says Andy Burnham told him 'he's going to open up North Sea oil'
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/...m-34374117

EXCERPTS: The call took place on Burnham's first day in the new role on July 20, with the Makerfield MP reportedly inviting Trump to Manchester. Trump shared some details of the call...

[...] Downing Street would not be drawn on any potential future plans for North Sea drilling after Mr Trump talked up a change in policy under Mr Burnham following their initial chat. The US president, a vocal supporter of fossil fuels, has long championed the move as he has railed against “windmills”. He lost a legal battle with the Scottish Government to stop a wind turbine development visible from his Aberdeenshire golf course.

Meanwhile, Labour’s 2024 manifesto said the party would not issue new North Sea licences. [...] Referring to his conversation with Mr Burnham, Mr Trump said: “Well, he did say one very good thing," according to PA. “He said he’s going to open up North Sea oil. If he does that, you’re going to be a wealthy country.”

The president added: “They [Britain] have two problems. They have a huge immigration problem – people coming from all over the world and just camping out in your country. He’s got that problem, and he’s got an energy problem. He’s got windmills all over the place, and any time you see windmills, you see a failing country. They’re made in China, not used by China, but they’re made in China.”

He went on: “You have one of the most valuable oil finds anywhere in the world, and if the United Kingdom would use it, they’d be a wealthy country again. And I tell you what, I could not get Starmer to use it. It was incredible. You have your own oil and gas. If you use the North Sea, the UK will be a really rich country. I cannot get the point across. The new gentleman, when I spoke to him, he said he’s going to open up the North Sea. Let’s see if that happens.”

The president also argued Mr Burnham would have to tackle the issue of immigration. Mr Trump said: “He’s going to have to mention it because it’s killing your country. I know Starmer did very little about it, and they’re coming from all over the world..." (MORE - details)

There were two sites that were capable of being operated and being maintained however their licenses were being held off on. All Burnham has done is suggest that those two sites can have their licenses. It doesn't mean he's opening up more sites that would need to be built or licensed since those sites would cost too much money to build with investment for very little return.

Currently the dipshits working on pricing are only taking into consideration the inflated prices based upon the current market, however the suggestion is that 3-5 years down the road when infrastructure has been built the prices for such things as oil will likely have not only stabilised but been price dumped.

That means that any new projects would be operating at a financial loss for probably 10-15 years.

There is also the added factor that the UK should keep its oil in the ground as long as it can. It's not just about finding alternatives, it's actually because if the price inflates continually in the future and other locations dry up, the oil left around the UK will be worth more then than it is now.

Stryder Wrote:There is also the added factor that the UK should keep its oil in the ground as long as it can. It's not just about finding alternatives, it's actually because if the price inflates continually in the future and other locations dry up, the oil left around the UK will be worth more then than it is now.

The way the free market works practically guarantees all the fossil carbon in the ground will end up in the air (as CO2). The main factor determining peak CO2 is simply .. how much fossil carbon is there. Other factors like the rate of removal are tweaks to the basic logic. Gemini (bless) actually gave a little Python program into which you could plug in your assumptions. Not exactly a complicated program (9 lines).

Without attempting to guess total carbon deposits .. we get way points from some guesses

Current Policies..
Carbon oxidised:  ~1,500 to 2,200 GtCO2
Assume 50% remains in the air
Peak CO2 ppm:510-560
Year:2060-2080
Predicted temperature rise: 4.5°F (2.5°C)

So, as expected, just Burnham imitating Iran's discourse approach with Trump. Lots of animated gesticulations that ultimately equate to nothing.
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Burnham says he told Trump UK will be pragmatic about North Sea oil
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c70gr75xzg5o

EXCERPTS: Prime Minister Andy Burnham has said he told US President Donald Trump he would take a "pragmatic approach" to the issue of North Sea oil and gas. Trump has long urged the UK to increase drilling and claimed that Burnham had pledged to "open up the North Sea" in their first phone call together.

Asked about the president's comments, the new prime minister said: "There is a resource there. When people are struggling - you can't ignore that and hence me indicating that to the president." Burnham has faced pressure from some trade unions, industry figures and some of his own Labour MPs to back increased drilling in the North Sea.

In its 2024 general election manifesto, Labour promised not to issue new licences for drilling but said it would honour existing ones. As energy secretary in Sir Keir Starmer's government, Ed Miliband was a staunch supporter of Labour's manifesto position. He has previously described the licence issued to Rosebank, Britain's largest untapped oil and gas field, as "climate vandalism".

Miliband is now the foreign secretary in Burnham's government. Although the government has not made any announcements on the issue, Trump has praised what he perceives as a change of stance by the UK government.

[...] Asked about Trump's comments, Burnham said: "I indicated in the phone call that we had a week last Monday that I would take a pragmatic approach when it comes to the North Sea, and that is my intention as we go forward from here."

In response, Green Party leader Zack Polanski said: "Our country is burning. Crops are failing. Thousands have been killed by extreme heat. Allowing new oil and gas drilling in the North Sea will worsen the climate breakdown putting more lives at risk and doing untold damage to our economy. It's not too late for Burnham to do the right thing and commit to leaving dangerous fossil fuels in the ground."

The Conservatives and Reform have urged the government to approve more drilling in the North Sea, arguing it would reduce energy prices. Some Labour MPs have expressed unease about more drilling, with Rachael Maskell urging the government to "follow the climate science because we have got a climate emergency".

Simon Francis, from the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said: "No household struggling with their energy bills will see a penny come off by drilling more from the North Sea. "Gas is sold at the global market prices, so whatever is pumped out is sold to the highest bidder, not handed to British billpayers at a discount." (MORE - missing details)

Kind of makes sense to tell Trump whatever he wants to hear.
Also makes sense to tell the Green Party leader some of the things he doesn't want to hear.. "Resistance is futile".

From the AI on Google search (I guess Gemini):

Quote:Upfront Capital and Construction Costs
Onshore Rigs: Cost between $15 million and $30 million to purchase new.
Offshore Rigs: Cost from $500 million to over $1 billion to build, depending on whether it is a shallow-water jackup or an ultra-deepwater drillship.

Daily Operating Rates (Dayrates)
Onshore Rigs: Daily rental and operating expenses range from $25,000 to $35,000.
Offshore Rigs: Daily rates scale heavily by depth and technology:Jackup rigs (shallow water): $100,000 to $180,000 per day.Semisubmersible rigs (deep water): $250,000 to $400,000 per day.

Now consider that the US, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE etc has more Onshore rigs than offshore. (Along with Russia)

Oil would be relatively cheap in price if only onshore was used, however it can be suggested that using Offshore allows companies to push the median oil price up due to the cost differences.

So in other words Trump wanting the UK to pump Offshore oil would actually aid in increasing the price for those using Onshore rigs. We'd suffer from the huge cost of the installation work and day rates to boost other countries economies.

I'd say it's a hard pass on that. (Reformers should smarten up)

Depletion of "Easy" Onshore Fields: Onshore supply is massive, but operators are actively exhausting their highest-quality, cheapest tier-1 acreage. As onshore production moves toward lower-quality acreage, its breakeven costs naturally rise. High-yield offshore fields—though expensive to construct—help prevent an even steeper spike in the global cost baseline by stepping in to meet demand.
- gemini

So the closer we get to any perceived onshore "peak oil" the more profitable offshore drilling and the more it can actually help keep oil prices down, by keeping up supply. If the UK doesn't want to benefit that's their prerogative. But it's no risk or expense to the UK government or taxpayers, and would be a significant tax infusion.

The UK operates under a concessionary licensing system. When the government "allows drilling," it is simply issuing a legal permit. The total financial burden of exploration, manufacturing, and operation falls squarely on private commercial entities.
- gemini