Jul 21, 2026 05:14 PM
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/why...re-getting
EXCERPTS: This is the second of two posts. Part 1, “Why Europe’s Heat Waves Are Getting Worse,” argued that “climate change” is not a cause of European heat waves but an outcome — the detected change in the statistics of weather, produced by several interacting factors. I sorted those factors into three bins: the direct effect of greenhouse gases, their indirect effects, and factors other than greenhouse gases, notably the post-1980 reduction in air pollution.
This post takes up a policy question: if the world accelerates decarbonization and reaches net zero, what should we expect to happen to European heat waves, and on what time scales?
[...] Part 1 also discussed the hypothesis that cleaner air drove a large part of Europe’s rapid summer warming since 1980: as sulfate pollution fell, more sunlight reached the surface, adding about half a degree of regional warming (Schumacher et al. 2024) and possibly reshaping circulation patterns toward conditions more favorable for heat waves.
If that hypothesis is correct, then reducing the burning of fossil fuels, and thus carbon dioxide emissions, would also contribute in the near term to increased heat waves in Europe: Stopping the burning of coal, oil, and gas also reduces particulate pollution. Those aerosols mask some warming by reflecting sunlight. Globally, aerosol cooling offsets a substantial share of greenhouse warming; removing the aerosols unmasks that warming. In some projections, the near-term warming from reducing aerosols rivals the warming avoided by cutting the carbon dioxide itself (Palazzo Corner et al. 2023).
The point here is not against cutting carbon dioxide emissions. It is against claiming that reducing those emissions is a solution to Europe’s heat waves as cutting emissions might not deliver what is promised.
Let’s assume that the world achieves net-zero carbon dioxide emissions: When would we detect the effects on climate? (MORE - missing details)
The scientific literature provides a clear answer: not soon... (MORE - missing details)
EXCERPTS: This is the second of two posts. Part 1, “Why Europe’s Heat Waves Are Getting Worse,” argued that “climate change” is not a cause of European heat waves but an outcome — the detected change in the statistics of weather, produced by several interacting factors. I sorted those factors into three bins: the direct effect of greenhouse gases, their indirect effects, and factors other than greenhouse gases, notably the post-1980 reduction in air pollution.
This post takes up a policy question: if the world accelerates decarbonization and reaches net zero, what should we expect to happen to European heat waves, and on what time scales?
[...] Part 1 also discussed the hypothesis that cleaner air drove a large part of Europe’s rapid summer warming since 1980: as sulfate pollution fell, more sunlight reached the surface, adding about half a degree of regional warming (Schumacher et al. 2024) and possibly reshaping circulation patterns toward conditions more favorable for heat waves.
If that hypothesis is correct, then reducing the burning of fossil fuels, and thus carbon dioxide emissions, would also contribute in the near term to increased heat waves in Europe: Stopping the burning of coal, oil, and gas also reduces particulate pollution. Those aerosols mask some warming by reflecting sunlight. Globally, aerosol cooling offsets a substantial share of greenhouse warming; removing the aerosols unmasks that warming. In some projections, the near-term warming from reducing aerosols rivals the warming avoided by cutting the carbon dioxide itself (Palazzo Corner et al. 2023).
The point here is not against cutting carbon dioxide emissions. It is against claiming that reducing those emissions is a solution to Europe’s heat waves as cutting emissions might not deliver what is promised.
Let’s assume that the world achieves net-zero carbon dioxide emissions: When would we detect the effects on climate? (MORE - missing details)
The scientific literature provides a clear answer: not soon... (MORE - missing details)